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In the coming weeks South Africa, Australia and Argentina will attempt to wrest the Rugby Championship trophy away from New Zealand, something akin to a baby taking candy from an adult.
Nothing has changed to suggest South Africa, Australia or Argentina will win.
It doesn’t mean they can’t win, but this gap we are always hearing about is much like a piece of string – its size is relative to its use.
On the evidence of last year’s results, New Zealand is ahead of South Africa, South Africa is ahead of Australia, and Australia is ahead of Argentina.
Over the past year, New Zealand has won 17 straight, South Africa has won 16 from 18, and Australia is on 7 wins in succession. However, the results in between Rugby Championships have little influence on what will happen in the next two months. You could say all three teams are confident, but then, confidence in beating everyone else does not relate to confidence in beating the team that dealt you thrashing or beatings the previous year.
A more pertinent question is which team has the most to lose?
Australia lost all their matches versus South Africa and New Zealand last year, so for them the situation can only get better. Whether they win one or both their matches at home or even pull of a solitary win away from home will be an improvement.
It all relates to the Wallabies being under no pressure. Ewen McKenzie is in an enviable position, almost any result this year will be an improvement on last year.
The All Blacks have an opportunity to break the record for most successive wins against tier one opposition. Naturally there will be pressure to hit the final nail in the coffin and prove they are one of the most successful All Black teams in history.
There is of course the Bledisloe, held by New Zealand for more than a decade. How will that go down in the Land of the Long White Cloud, and even worse how would they handle the bragging rights afforded to the Wallaby supporters if they do relinquish the Cup?
Then you have the Rugby Championship Trophy, could they lose that? Possibly, but history suggests they’ll retain it.
Argentina has nothing to lose. Their best efforts thus far brought them a draw against South Africa in Mendoza during the 2012 campaign. They are still learning how to be competitive against the Southern Hemisphere giants, so anything more than a draw and a few close losses will be an improvement.
This brings us to the team most precariously positioned, Heyneke Meyer’s charges. Results-wise, the Springboks have learnt how to win matches they would lose in the past, they have been unbeaten in Europe since the Rugby World Cup, in fact they have not lost against a European team since 2010.
They have turned around their fortunes against Australia in emphatic style over the past 18 months. It is only New Zealand that has been elusive.
They deserve their second spot on the podium, but they have a challenge on their hands. Meyer must find a way to beat the All Blacks. However what should be of more concern to them is the chasing pack. How often have we seen South Africa look like beating all comers one year, only to fall back into the chasing pack the year after?
Let’s call this the second-year syndrome we so often see in players. It is the next season that determines whether you can indeed make the grade; you are not an unknown factor anymore, there is ample video evidence and analysis done and you have nowhere to hide.
In much the same vein, Meyer has nowhere to hide this year. McKenzie and Steve Hansen will have new ideas, new counter moves, better ways of negating the Springboks, and you could bet your bottom dollar there will be nothing new from the Springboks. Meyer doesn’t work that way, he believes in structure, he believes in territory and he believes in execution.
But what happens when execution fails? Anyone saw Wales versus South Africa in June? There was nothing new.
If Meyer fails to beat Australia home and away, if Meyer fails to beat New Zealand this year, then all will have been for nought.
Heyeneke Meyer and his charges have the most to lose, as falling back into the chasing pack will hurt them more than any other failings Australia, New Zealand or Argentina might conjure up.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.