After previewing the current top eight in Part I, in this part we will look at the teams currently outside of it, and where they will finish on the ladder at season’s end.
Collingwood
Currently ninth (10 wins, 9 losses, 100.9%)
Matches to play: Brisbane Lions (MCG), GWS Giants (SPO), Hawthorn (MCG)
Predicted finish: ninth
Collingwood’s ten-goal thumping by the West Coast Eagles in Perth sees them at risk of missing the finals for the first time since 2005.
Despite the looming prospect of possibly having to book their post-season holidays earlier than usual, the Pies still remain alive in the finals race, but percentage and Essendon’s run home could ultimately decide their fate.
The Pies should bounce back with matches against the Brisbane Lions and injury-hit GWS Giants coming up in the next fortnight, and depending on how they fare in those two matches, they may need to defeat recent bogey team Hawthorn in the final round, and hope other results go their way, to sneak into the finals.
But on current form, I just can’t see the Pies making it into September for a ninth consecutive season, and it might be time for the club to rebuild if it is to re-emerge as a premiership contender.
Gold Coast Suns
Currently 10th (10 wins, 9 losses, 97.2%)
Matches to play: Port Adelaide (MS), Essendon (ES), West Coast Eagles (ES)
Predicted finish: 11th
Just over a month ago a maiden finals berth seemed all but a certainty given the progress the Gold Coast Suns have made in their fourth season in the AFL.
Gary Ablett Jr seemed all but certain to become the first man since Robert Harvey in 1997-8 to go back to back as the Brownlow Medalist, until his and the team’s fortunes took a dramatic turn for the worst when the little master injured his shoulder.
While their finals hopes are starting to drift away, they can at least sabotage the hopes of their next three opponents, and in the case of Port Adelaide, whom they welcome to the holiday strip this weekend, a double-chance.
Given the Suns’ poor form over the last month, a maiden finals berth may have to wait.
West Coast Eagles
Currently 11th (9 wins, 10 losses, 111.8%)
Matches to play: Essendon (ES), Melbourne (PS), Gold Coast Suns (MS)
Predicted finish: 10th
To say the least, it has been a testing first year for Adam Simpson at the West Coast Eagles, with the club having to contend with the mid-season retirement of Darren Glass and that of Dean Cox at season’s end.
The announcement of Glass’ retirement has coincided with a spark in form, which has seen the Eagles win five of their last eight matches to suddenly storm back into finals contention.
However, to force their way into the top eight, they will just about have to win every match from now, and hope that other results fall their way. They will be expected to beat Melbourne at home, while question marks hover over their away trips to Essendon and the Gold Coast.
Richmond
Currently 12th (9 wins, 10 losses, 104.1%)
Matches to play: Adelaide Crows (Oval), St Kilda (MCG), Sydney Swans (ANZ)
Predicted finish: 12th
Richmond’s finals hopes appeared to be all but over when the full-time siren sounded on their 11-point loss to the Sydney Swans on June 20.
Since then, the Tigers have racked up six consecutive victories to suddenly storm into finals calculations but to keep their hopes alive they will have to travel interstate on either side of their final MCG game for the season against St Kilda in Round 22.
This weekend sees them travel to the Adelaide Oval to face the Crows, and they may have to beat the Swans in their backyard if they are to force their way into September, and hope that other results fall in their favour.
If there is any hope for Tigers fans, it’s that the club is undefeated interstate since losing to the Gold Coast Suns on the Gold Coast in Round 1.
The Tigers’ destiny lies in their own hands. Every match they win will keep their finals hopes alive, but a loss could see them start planning for a return to September in 2015.
Carlton
Currently 13th (7 wins, 12 losses, 94%)
Matches to play: Geelong Cats (ES), Port Adelaide (Oval), Essendon (MCG)
Predicted finish: 14th
Season 2014 has not panned out exactly the way Carlton or Mick Malthouse would have liked, but they did produce one of their best performances for the season when they put the Gold Coast Suns to the sword last round.
That marked their third win from their last five matches, while they also got very close to knocking off Fremantle in the west in Round 19.
While the Blues cannot make the finals this year, they can at least sabotage the finals aspirations of the opponents they face to finish off the season. That starts with this Friday night’s showdown against Geelong at Etihad Stadium.
And they would love nothing more than to deny Essendon a berth in the eight when the Blues face them in the final match to be played at the MCG before the finals get underway.
Western Bulldogs
Currently 14th (7 wins, 12 losses, 85%)
Matches to play: North Melbourne (ES), Sydney Swans (ES), GWS Giants (ES)
Predicted finish: 13th
The Western Bulldogs have endured another tough season on the field in 2014 but they are in a run home which sees them not play outside Etihad Stadium for the rest of the season.
What they can do is shape the top eight from outside of it, given they play North Melbourne and the Sydney Swans in the next fortnight. That is then followed by the season-ending match against GWS on the final day of winter.
For Brendan McCartney, the final three matches will be about giving his young pups numerous chances to shine, with Marcus Bontempelli one of the favourites to claim the Rising Star award this year.
It could also see Bulldogs fans take in a sneak preview of what to expect from the team in 2015 after four years out of the finals.
Brisbane Lions
Currently 15th (6 wins, 13 losses, 67.1%)
Matches to play: Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle (Gabba), Geelong Cats (SS)
Predicted finish: 15th
A horror season for the Brisbane Lions just got tougher after the club suffered its worst ever defeat at home, losing to the Adelaide Crows by a whopping 105 points.
It marked their second loss to a South Australian club by over 100 points from as many matches this season, after losing to Port Adelaide by 113 points back in Round 4.
Their draw to finish the season is also unforgiving, with a desperate Collingwood and top four certainties Fremantle and the Geelong Cats on the menu to finish off what has been a tough first season for the club under Justin Leppitsch.
The Lions won’t be expected to win any of their three remainders, but any win will cause a blow to their three opponents who will more than most use their matches against the Lions to warm up for the finals.
Melbourne
Currently 16th (4 wins, 15 losses, 71.6%)
Matches to play: GWS Giants (MCG), West Coast Eagles (PS), North Melbourne (ES)
Predicted finish: 16th
Despite their last-start loss to Hawthorn last week, Melbourne weren’t as bad as you think they were, well at least according to coach Paul Roos.
Their last chance to avoid the wooden spoon will come this Sunday when they face the GWS Giants in the battle of the cellar-dwellers. Win that match and the Dees will have five victories for the season, equalling the amount from the Mark Neeld era.
Lose and Paul Roos, whose coaching record includes winning a premiership with the Sydney Swans in 2005, risks becoming the first coach since John Worsfold to hold both a premiership (2006) and wooden spoon (2010).
The Dees have it tough after the match against the Giants, with the long trip west to face the Eagles and the final round match against North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium to finish off the year.
It might not be a successful season for the Dees as far as results are concerned, but Paul Roos has incredibly improved their defence and as such it is the 10th-best in the competition this year.
GWS Giants
Currently 17th (4 wins, 15 losses, 71.4%)
Matches to play: Melbourne (MCG), Collingwood (SPO), Western Bulldogs (ES)
Predicted finish: 17th
Saturday’s 75-point loss to North Melbourne has dipped the Giants’ percentage below that of Melbourne’s ahead of their showdown with their fellow cellar-dwellers this coming Sunday.
Injuries have ruined the Giants’ third season but it’s something that the club has to deal with, according to their coach Leon Cameron. From their best possible line-up, Jeremy Cameron, Tom Scully and Stephen Coniglio are among those who will not play again this year.
To the eyes of many, their last chance to win a match in 2014 comes in the aforementioned match on Sunday against the Demons. They might also have a chance against the out-of-form Collingwood in their final home game the following round, but there are fears the Pies could feast on this still very-young club then.
The Giants will end the regular season when they play the Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium in Round 23. They could know by then if they will have to win this match to avoid a third consecutive wooden spoon.
Against them, however, will be the fact that by the time the Giants start that match, the Saints will be midway through their match against the Crows in Adelaide.
St Kilda
Currently last (4 wins, 15 losses, 62.3%)
Matches to play: Sydney Swans (SCG), Richmond (MCG), Adelaide Crows (Oval)
Predicted finish: Last
The last thing St Kilda needs in its attempt to avoid the wooden spoon is to travel north to Sydney to face the red-hot premiership favourites in their own backyard this Saturday.
It is widely expected that the Swans, for whom Buddy Franklin has been responsible for their premiership favouritism this year, will feast on a side which four years ago went so agonisingly close to winning its second flag under Ross Lyon.
Instead, the Saints will have to repeat what they did to Fremantle in Round 18, when they put in their best performance of the year in a 58-point romp, to have any chance of avoiding its first wooden spoon since 2000.
It doesn’t end there. They also have to face a Richmond side still alive in its bid for an unlikely finals place, and then wrap up their season with a trip to the City of Churches to play the Adelaide Crows.
The end of the season can’t come quite soon enough for the poor old Saints, but at least they are in pole position to secure the number one pick in November’s AFL Draft for the first time since 2002.*
A full preview of Round 21 will be posted later this week.
*NOTE: St Kilda actually finished second-last in 2002, but received the first pick in that year’s draft after wooden-spooners Carlton were swamped with massive fines for salary cap breaches.
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