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I was planning on writing this article about Bernard Foley and whether or not he is the man to finally end Australia’s Bledisloe Cup drought.
Then, Ewen McKenzie sprung a selection shock in selecting his NSW Waratahs teammate Kurtley Beale ahead of him.
So, instead, this article will explore that gamble.
I’ve described the selection of Beale at five-eighth as a gamble, but it really isn’t. This isn’t selecting James O’Connor to play five-eighth against the British and Irish Lions when he’s barely played there before.
Beale is a natural five-eighth, he played five-eighth throughout his schoolboy days and the only reason we haven’t seen more of him in that position is because the Waratahs threw him in when he wasn’t ready in the midst of one of their worst seasons ever in 2007.
He did lead the Tahs to the 2008 final in this position, but he still did not resemble the superstar that many predicted him to be. This is because he wasn’t ready, he needed time, but NSW officials were not willing to give him time. He was eventually moved to fullback where he showed significant promise. Too much promise.
Eventually injuries forced Robbie Deans to select Beale at five-eighthin 2012 and he showed us glimpses of what he could deliver. Again though, he would need time. Unfortunately 2013 was a terrible year for Beale.
He battled mental demons, alcohol abuse, injuries, 4am trips to Burger King and a hugely distracting Rebels teammate and eventually missed much of the 2013 Super Rugby season and the entire Rugby Championships.
He clearly did not get the time he needed in the number 10 jersey last year.
After being released by the Rebels, Beale made the very smart move of returning home to Sydney. However he gave coach Michael Cheika a major selection dilemma. Israel Folau was the Waratahs fullback, he is one the best rugby players in the country, if not the world. He was not going to be moved.
This opened the door for a possible return to five-eight, except for one hurdle. Bernard Foley had shown significant promise in Cheika’s first season at the franchise, learning and starting to master Cheika’s expansive style of play.
Cheika wanted to build upon last season rather than start afresh so he made what now looks like a masterstroke and selected Beale at inside centre. Except Beale didn’t really play like an inside centre. Ahh the luxuries you are afforded when Adam Ashley-Cooper is in the team.
Beale and Foley formed a lethal 10-12 combination, sharing the playmaking duties and making use of the Waratahs all-star backline. It was not uncommon for Beale to stand at first receiver and Foley second receiver throughout the season and for the Waratahs attack to revolve around Beale.
Likewise, it was also not uncommon for Beale to lead the attack from second receiver, for forward runners to run off Beale at 12 rather than Foley at 10.
It is a testament to both Beale and Foley that they were able to make this setup work, it could have been very easy for either one of the pair to overplay their hand and attempt to hog the playmaking role. But they didn’t, instead they shared the role and the Waratahs benefited because of it.
So Beale and Foley formed a lethal combination that led New South Wales to their maiden Super Rugby title, but Foley will not be present on Saturday night. Beale, instead, will be teamed with Brumbies five-eighth Matt Toomua.
Despite playing in the number 10 jersey for the Brumbies, Toomua has filled the number 12 jersey with aplomb for the Wallabies on a number of occasions. Toomua was beginning to form a strong combination with Quade Cooper towards the backend of last year before he suffered a hamstring injury on the Wallabies Spring Tour and his combination with Foley showed improvement across the three matches played against France in June.
It is frustrating for Toomua and Australia that this is the fourth 10-12 combination that Australia will be fielding since the Spring Tour last year and Australia will certainly be at a disadvantage because of this.
The inclusion of Toomua at inside centre is crucial to Beale’s chances of succeeding. Over the past year Toomua has shown us that not only is he able to play a supporting role at inside centre as a natural five-eighth, he has the ability to step in and play as the chief playmaker if necessary.
He has also shown us that he is able to play as an inside centre. And this is the key reason that Toomua was picked at inside centre over Beale, Beale can’t really play as a traditional inside centre but Toomua can, he has the body to run hard crash balls if necessary.
If a traditional inside centre had been selected to partner Beale for Saturday night’s Test, Beale would have likely struggled. The combination with Foley worked so effectively for Beale because both Foley and Beale could pick and choose their moments and when to become the chief playmaker, if one of the players was having a bad game, the other could step up and take control.
Likewise, if one was having an excellent game, like Beale in the final, the other could step back and let him run the show, while stepping in when required, like Foley did.
For Beale to be effective on Saturday night, he must play direct. Run the ball early to keep the All Blacks in check and then once they are focused on him, spread it wide and use the outside backs. He needs runners running outside him so that he isn’t expected to play the role of miracle man.
He needs the forwards to give him quick ball, so that he has enough time and space to work his magic. He needs to utilise his strong combination with Israel Folau.
And he needs to play without fear of failure. Beale has struggled when he’s attempted to reign in his game, yes he has to play smart and kick when necessary, but he also has to play what’s in front of him and make what he thinks is the right decision, not what he thinks people want him to make.
Lastly, it will be interesting to see where Beale defends. McKenzie has used Cooper, a noted poor defender, in defence at both five-eighth and fullback. However, Beale has spent much of the past year defending at fullback and leading the counter attack alongside Folau.
Typically, not much traffic is sent through the five eight’s channel, unless it is deliberately targeted, as such, Beale could survive in defence at five-eighth, however it might be best for Australia if he drops back and leads the counter attack.
Look for Beale and Toomua to play in a similar manner to the way Cooper and Toomua played towards the back end of last season, but with Beale taking the lion’s share of the playmaking role. Beale has been selected on the back of his outstanding form of late and while at first glance it may appear to be a gamble, looking at it a bit more closely reveals that it is not so much a gamble.
Beale is being paired with a player who has been a mainstay in the Australian team and has experience at both five-eighth and inside centre. Will McKenzie’s selection pay off? We’ll just have to wait until Saturday night.
And if you haven’t already bought your tickets to the game, please do so, Australia needs all the help we can get and a packed ANZ Stadium will certainly help them, just ask the Waratahs.
Twitter: @fromthesheds
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.