There’s one round to go and 12 teams can – technically at least – make the eight. The two sides vying for fourth also happen to be playing each other.
On top of that, minor premiership and wooden spoon honours are both still on the table.
So how do you make it through the weekend? Where do you give your attention? What results does each team need from each game? Are we going to need calculators next to our TV remotes?
Let’s run through it step by step and see if it makes any more sense.
Collingwood versus Hawthorn
Friday 7.50pm (AEST)
Tonight is simple. There’s only one game on. No channel surfing dilemmas here. So what are these teams playing for?
Collingwood need
The Pies (currently in ninth) obviously need to win to make the finals. However, they also need Richmond to lose to Sydney on Saturday. Either of losing to the Hawks or the Tigers winning make it season over.
Hawthorn need
A win locks Hawthorn in a home final. After a loss, Geelong beating Brisbane, or Fremantle comfortably beating Port Adelaide would knock them out of second.
At the other end of the spectrum, a big win would also make a third straight minor premiership slightly possible, if it’s followed up by Sydney losing to Richmond. Closing the percentage gap is crucial though, as the combined margins from the two matches would need to be around 80 points.
Carlton versus Essendon
Saturday 1.45pm (AEST)
Here’s where your viewing choice becomes an issue. From about half time of this match onwards, you’re going to have to choose between matches.
Best advice is that if Essendon’s season is still on the line at half time – and you’re not a Fremantle or Port Adelaide supporter – stay tuned in.
Carlton need
Well, nothing really. The worst fate a loss could bring is a drop down to the bottom four, but two results are needed for that to happen. Winning won’t move them up the ladder. A win over their rivals is pretty much all that’s at stake.
Essendon need
Assuming Collingwood lose to Hawthorn, the result won’t decide whether the Dons are in the finals. Even if the Pies win, the Tigers also need to beat the Swans for a loss to knock Essendon out of the finals.
That said, a win would protect seventh spot, which is important because seventh will get to stay in Melbourne next week – as North Melbourne will finish sixth – instead of heading to either Adelaide or Perth.
Fremantle versus Port Adelaide
Saturday 3.10pm (AEST)
The schedulers have thrown a curve ball into the mix with an unusual time slot – an afternoon game in Perth – but it does give fans the chance to take the afternoon one half at a time, so that’s a plus. (Although we’d rather this match didn’t have to overlap with the next one!)
Fremantle need
A win to stay in the top four. Losing guarantees fifth spot. It’s that simple. They can climb to third if Brisbane beat Geelong – and even second if a highly elaborate set of results take place – but basically, winning means a second chance with finals starting on the road.
Port Adelaide need
A win to climb into the top four. Losing almost certainly means fifth. So yeah, this one’s worth watching.
Sydney Swans versus Richmond
Saturday 4.40pm (AEST)
The juiciness of Freo-Port makes it all the more frustrating that we’ll have to pick between the second half of that game and the first half of this one – the classic match of the round between two of the competition’s hottest teams with the irresistible storyline of Richmond coming back from the brink to sneak into September.
Sydney need
A win to lock in the minor premiership. Or, assuming Hawthorn didn’t lose and hand it to them already, they need to avoid losing by enough for the Hawks to close the percentage gap.
Richmond need
To make it nine wins in a row if they’re going to play finals. A loss would make it near impossible – Collingwood would’ve had to have lost the night before, and Adelaide and West Coast would need to lose on Sunday.
North Melbourne versus Melbourne and Geelong versus Brisbane Lions
Saturday 7.40pm (AEST)
Phew, take a deep breath. After that intense afternoon of footy, we have two matches which will – or at least should – take the pressure down.
North Melbourne need
To win, but for morale more than anything else. Only Melbourne smashing the Roos – or North winning by well over 100 – would have finals implications.
Melbourne need
To win in order to avoid the spoon. After a loss, St Kilda beating Adelaide on Sunday would hand it to them.
Geelong need
To win, which at this stage would probably lock in third. If the Pies get up over Hawthorn, they can nab second however. A loss would mean dropping to fourth if the Dockers beat the Power.
Brisbane need
A win if they’re keen to leave the bottom four. At least one of Carlton and the Bulldogs would need to lose as well. Otherwise, they can’t slip any further.
Gold Coast Suns versus West Coast Eagles
Sunday 1.10pm (AEST)
If spots are still up for grabs on Sunday, it’ll be a very interesting day indeed.
West Coast need
Firstly, they need Collingwood and Richmond to lose to their top-two opposition. Secondly, they need to beat the Suns. Lastly, they need Adelaide to not thump St Kilda so much that their percentage advantage over the Crows disappears. Then, they’ll be playing finals.
Gold Coast need
An absolute miracle. They need all the same conditions as West Coast need, plus they need Adelaide to lose, plus they need the Pies and Tigers to lose by significant margins, plus they themselves need to win by a significant – say, over 100 points – margin.
Good luck with that.
Adelaide versus St Kilda
Sunday 3.20pm (AEST)
If spots are still up for grabs at this point, do not leave your couch!
Adelaide need
Firstly, they need Collingwood and Richmond to lose to their top-two opposition. Secondly, they need the Eagles to have either lost to the Suns or beaten them not by much.
Lastly, they need to thump St Kilda by enough to catch the Eagles on percentage. Then, they’ll be playing finals.
St Kilda need
A win to escape last place and the wooden spoon. Even if the Dees get thumped by 100 and the Saints lose by only one point, the Saints will still retain the lower percentage.
Western Bulldogs versus Greater Western Sydney Giants
Sunday 4.40pm (AEST)
And phew, time to settle down again. A much calmer way to round out the weekend. The only way the interest levels will pick up in this match is if the AFL announce the finals fixtures at halftime.
Western Bulldogs need
If the Lions won the night before, they need a win to avoid the bottom four. Otherwise, there’s no real implications.
GWS need
A result either way won’t change their finishing positon, unless the absolutely improbable happens.
There. Does the weekend make any more sense now?
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