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One of the smartest things I did this NRL season was, for the first time in years, sidestep being involved in any tipping competitions whatsoever.
But having avoided all that anxiety, frustration and embarrassment all season I’ve reached the finals feeling fresh and ready to lash out. Not just with some thoughts on this week’s games, but a little peek further ahead on how the whole shebang might unfold from here.
I’m loving the prospect of this finals series, with so much quality involved. And I don’t know why it looks so clear to me, it’s most likely a mirage, but here is how I see it panning out, result by result.
South Sydney versus Manly
The Rabbitohs to prevail in a spirited contest. They’ll be wound up tight as a spring after their flying finish against the Roosters last week and Manly have staggered into the finals, dragging with them a heavy load of contract-wielding players, managers and warring board members.
Yes, I’ve heard the theory that the Sea Eagles are exceptionally good at putting such distractions aside and that most of it is ‘paper talk’. Well, I’m starting to feel it’s paper talk that these guys are able to cope with any level of peripheral nonsense. The absence of Matt Ballin, and his most logical replacement at dummy half, Jamie Buhrer, will be telling. The Rabittohs will be stronger for having John Sutton in the second row and Adam Reynolds back from suspension.
Rabbitohs by 10 points. The downside: more weak Russell Crowe-Gladiator references in the tabloids.
Roosters verus Penrith
As much as I admire what Ivan Cleary has done with the Panthers this is the point where it goes up a notch. Or three. And, as much as I admire Ivan Cleary’s work, I am a subscriber to the theory that Trent Robinson is a budding genius.
There was no sense of alarm when his premiers’ early season form was below par. It was almost as if, all along, it was planned the Roosters would peak at this stage of the season. The Panthers “Moneyball” outfit, minus key cog Peter Wallace, might be diligent, but they don’t have the firepower or big match experience to pose a real threat.
Roosters by 16 points. The downside: imagine how much more the refs are going to cop from an out of sorts Gus Gould in commentary for the rest of the weekend.
Cowboys versus Broncos
As liberating as it must’ve been for the Broncos to set their finals hopes free last Friday night, only to have them boomerang back on Sunday evening, it’s hard to go past the fact they’ve already overachieved.
The Cowboys, far from being excited about making the playoffs will be hardened by the cruelties of their last two finals campaigns and will take nothing for granted. Johnathan Thurston is a all-time star of the game and in the prime of his career. This situation was made for him.
Cowboys by 18. The upside: North Queensland conspiracy theorists won’t feel at all reassured by knocking another Queensland side out of the finals and will keep their tin-foil hats at the ready.
Storm verus Bulldogs
The two most methodical and mistake free teams in the competition are usually big on the grind and low on points when they meet, but the simple reality is the Storm have outside backs with linebreaks and points in them, and the Dogs don’t.
The Bulldogs’ average linebreaks per game figure would be small enough to pass a breathalyser. Watching them in recent weeks has been like watching Lleyton Hewitt in a grand slam. Plenty of fight, plenty of defence and spirit, but no weapons to put an opponent away.
Even if Cameron Smith doesn’t play, Ryan Hinchcliffe will be slick and experienced enough to do a decent job. Without Smith the margin will be smaller, but with him (and I think he will play) it’ll be the Storm outclassing the Dogs in a low-scoring affair.
Storm by eight points. The upside: Des Hasler won’t feel any pressure to be convivial, his presser will be over in less than 40 seconds and he might sign some backs for 2015.
So week two of the finals would therefore be Panthers versus Cowboys and Manly versus Storm. I’d tip the Cowboys and Storm to get through.
Week three would then present Roosters versus Storm, with the Roosters having too much strength across the park for Melbourne, and Rabbitohs versus North Queensland, with the Cowboys getting across the line in a nail biter.
So, my crystal ball has a Roosters versus Cowboys grand final and I’d lean towards a Roosters victory, although I’d be delighted with a North Queensland win. Actually, to be honest, my absolute preference would be for a Melbourne Storm premiership because I do love watching them play and I never get tired of winding up those who are small minded enough not to appreciate the ultimate skill of Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater.
Unlike many, I see nothing but limited nostalgia value in two neighbouring inner-city Sydney teams fighting it out on grand final day. There’s no romance in that for me. It would be a buzz for Sydney, but haven’t we got beyond seeing what works best for Sydney as being the best thing for the game?
In any case, for me Souths winning the premiership would be like seeing an episode of the X-Files where Mulder and Scully finally get together. That’s not romance. That’s the point where the romance totally evaporates.
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