Four matches down, five to go. Six teams are left in the race for this year’s NRL premiership and this week will see the Sydney Roosters and Manly Sea Eagles fight for their survival in the semi-finals.
The Roosters and Sea Eagles’ respective losses to the Penrith Panthers and South Sydney Rabbitohs in the qualifying finals has put them at risk of exiting the finals series in straight sets, the same fate that befell the Melbourne Storm last year.
They face the North Queensland Cowboys and Canterbury Bulldogs this weekend, with the Rabbitohs and Panthers to await in the preliminary finals.
Sydney Roosters versus North Queensland Cowboys
Friday, September 19
7:55pm
Allianz Stadium
In 2014: Cowboys won 42-10 at 1300SMILES Stadium in Round 10.
Last meeting in a final: Roosters won 19-16 at ANZ Stadium, second preliminary final, 2004.
After being pipped at the post by the Penrith Panthers last week, the last thing the Sydney Roosters need is to face a North Queensland side which not only towelled them up in Round 10, but were also impressive in defeating the Brisbane Broncos at home in their elimination final last week.
The loss to the mountain men snapped a six-match winning streak for the Chooks, which they rode on to win a second consecutive minor premiership which many believe they didn’t deserve.
The Cowboys’ form for most of the regular season has been very impressive. Last week, the northerners led the Broncos 24-0 at half-time before eventually winning 32-20.
If the match between these two sides in Townsville in Round 10 is anything to go by, then the Roosters could see a disappointing end to not only their premiership defence, but also the careers of Anthony Minichiello (retiring) and Sonny Bill Williams (returning to rugby).
On that occasion, however, the Roosters were missing Mitchell Pearce, who was stood down following his part in a Kings Cross nightclub incident which ultimately led to him being left out of the New South Wales Blues victorious State of Origin campaign.
For Minichiello, this Friday night’s semi-final match will mark his 301st game, tying him with Luke Ricketson for most games played with the Roosters.
The motivation will be there for the Chooks to perform well and ensure ‘The Count’ overtakes Ricketson by playing at least one more game.
The Cowboys return to Allianz Stadium for the first time since last year’s controversial elimination final loss to the Cronulla Sharks, where now-retired winger Beau Ryan scored the well-documented seventh tackle try in the first half.
The Sydney Football Stadium has proven to be a finals graveyard for Johnathan Thurston’s men, who also lost a controversial semi-final against the Sea Eagles at the same venue in 2012, and lost to the same team 42-8 in a qualifying final twelve months earlier.
However, their impressive form all year simply cannot be ignored and I can see them pulling off an upset here.
For the winner: a showdown against the South Sydney Rabbitohs in the preliminary final at ANZ Stadium next Friday night.
Prediction: Cowboys by 12 points.
Manly Sea Eagles versus Canterbury Bulldogs
Saturday, September 20
7:45pm
Allianz Stadium
In 2014: Round 13 saw the Sea Eagles win 32-10 at Brookvale Oval, Round 17 ended with Bulldogs winning 23-16 at ANZ Stadium.
Last meeting in a final: Bulldogs won 16-10 at ANZ Stadium, first qualifying final, 2012.
Injuries and poor form are conspiring against the Sea Eagles at the wrong time of the season, perhaps enough for Geoff Toovey to launch an ‘investigation’ into why his team is faring so badly.
Last Friday night at Allianz Stadium the Sea Eagles were never in the hunt against the South Sydney Rabbitohs, falling behind 40-0 before saving face with four last-quarter tries.
The Bulldogs were impressive in defeating the Melbourne Storm 28-4 at AAMI Park last week. Des Hasler’s men had their own poor finish to the season, which saw them end the minor rounds seventh. However, they proved unstoppable against the Storm.
Given the contrasting performances of both teams last week, and injuries for the Manly side in particular, I can see another upset being sprung here, as with the first semi-final.
For the winner: the Penrith Panthers in the preliminary final at ANZ Stadium next Saturday night.
Prediction: Bulldogs by 10 points.
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