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So it has come to this – the grand final no one expected to see.
Enough has been made this week of the historical significance of South Sydney’s reappearance in a grand final, so let’s take a novel approach and have a look at the game itself.
The knock on Souths prior to this year’s playoffs, and justifiably so, was that they have a tendency to be too conservative, especially in playoff games. The structure in place was restrictive, and did not ask enough of opposing defences.
This of course is the Melbourne Storm model, which coach Michael Maguire learnt as Craig Bellamy’s assistant. It worked for them, although many would argue most structures work with the spine of that Storm team.
So what has changed this year for Souths? Their backs.
In Alex Johnston they have ridiculous speed and a natural try scorer, Kirisome Auva’a is physicality personified with and without the ball, and Luke Keary gives them a ball runner with an underrated passing game to add to last year’s primary ball players of Adam Reynolds and John Sutton.
They have a lot more variety, and the ability to finish off sets and take advantage of the yardage game their forward pack provides.
And what a forward pack it is. Last week against the Roosters was one of the most brutal and physically dominant performances you’ll see for a long time.
In Sam, Tom and George Burgess they have size and leg speed. All three continuously bend the defence line, and more importantly they each have a very fast play-the-ball.
But Souths will be missing a major component in their pack, the suspended Issac Luke. Replacement Apisai Koroisau has played 13 games this year, but hasn’t ever played a full game. He also has not played competitively for eight weeks, so it’s asking an awful lot to step in to a grand final and replace an 80-minute player.
Expect to see Luke Keary and/or Jason Clark spend some time at dummy half throughout the game when Koroisau gets a breather.
As for the Bulldogs, well I am absolutely astonished they are in the grand final.
Think about this, they had to rely on results to go their way just to make the playoffs. They lost six of their last eight games, the last to the Gold Coast.
It appears Michael Ennis will miss the game, but stay tuned on that.
The Dogs have feasted on opposing forward packs, but they have yet to face a pack as big and strong as the one they will face on Sunday night.
This is such a Dogs type of year though. Every so often they float through a season, look a step below contending teams, but click for a few weeks in September.
In 1995 they were far from the best team, yet they won it all. In 1998 they were well below the top echelon, but they strung a bunch of wins together and got to the grand final, only to be outclassed by a better Brisbane squad.
In the playoffs the Dogs haven’t trailed this season, so it will be interesting to see how they react to some scoreboard pressure if they find themselves behind in the first half.
Like the Rabbits, the Canterbury forward pack has been huge. James Graham and Aiden Tolman churn the yards out for extended minutes. Tony Williams has been almost uncontainable on that left edge, and Josh Jackson is giving an excellent impression of Bradley Clyde.
But what can they get from their halves? Trent Hodkinson appears to be on one leg, and Josh Reynolds has not exactly been setting the world on fire of late.
If the game is close, goal kicking may prove the difference. Hodkinson’s injury means he has handed the kicking duties to Tim Lafai. Advantage Adam Reynolds.
Another injured Bulldog is Josh Morris. He has been well below his best most of this year and his mobility may be tested opposing the ultra-elusive Dylan Walker.
Prediction
I can’t see the Dogs winning this. The Souths pack is bigger and every bit as mobile as the Bulldogs. Souths also have a better set of backs, with greater speed and power.
Providing they get an even share of possession, Souths should have too many points in them.
Souths 26-12.
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