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When fielding questions online for Wales’ chances in next year’s World Cup, Warren Gatland inevitably encountered a question directed at his native New Zealand.
His answer was typically forthright in which he claimed that the All Blacks’ easy pool in comparison to his own side’s was a hindrance more than an advantage.
There is certainly a great deal of validity to that line of reasoning. 2007 is often used as an example of how a pool party can quickly turn ugly.
However, I would argue that the quarter final in 2007 was not so much a lack of match conditioning by Scotland and Italy who preferred to rest their key players against New Zealand in order to win their own crunch match but, rather, more a mental toll of being placed under pressure where previously there had been none.
After injuries to my knees while skiing and playing rugby (not at the same time though I thoroughly recommend it), I entered the world of multi-sports and triathlon.
Not exactly the best sports to take up with weakened knees but mercifully less high energy and generally without contact (those turns around the buoys can get messy!)
After a few shaky starts, I started experiencing success in a few local events. This saw me take on some more challenging races with international fields as well as national ones. It was still an enjoyable experience but the move up in level came as a big shock to me.
When you do something out of your comfort zone and you challenge your limits, nerves are inevitable. However, there are two ways that being on edge can go.
The butterflies in your stomach can fly around to such an extent that they cause you to crumble. I dare not speak the ch-word banded about after All Black exits. Or they can inspire you to exceed your own expectations.
France, for example, readily admit that they fear playing the All Blacks. Consistency can be intimidating and in recent times France have struggled for just that.
Yet they acknowledge that this fear has the potential to push them to greater heights. Cue replays of that formidable defensive display in 2007 and that incredible second half in 1999.
We only get nervous about the things that matter to us or when we sense that failure is a distinct possibility. I can certainly remember being on the start line intimidated by the sight of highly conditioned athletes standing alongside me.
Racking my bike up next to a space-age trialbike was like watching a Coca-Cola commercial on the couch, wondering why the young people drinking the very same beverage in front of me on the screen were having a better time than me.
I dare say Wales will not be feeling the same levels of inadequacy when they line up against England and Australia in their ‘pool of death’ next year.
However, I would be willing to wager that they will be extremely apprehensive about those matches, knowing how much depends on them.
That has the potential to push Wales to greater heights, similar to the impressive display they put in against South Africa in pool play, albeit coming away with a loss that time.
With the greatest respect to Argentina, Georgia, Namibia, Georgia and Tonga, the All Blacks will not be so apprehensive. That said, I do not think Gatland has looked too closely into the specific details of this pool.
Argentina first up is ideal as they will be with their best players and that should keep the All Blacks’ heads down in training. They then face the other teams with gaps of five eight and seven days respectively between matches.
Ideal to rotate players in the middle and then have a tough game against Tonga – who proved no slouches in the 2011 World Cup.
Moreover, their opponents – most probably either France or Ireland – face each other in their last game of pool play two days later than New Zealand’s match against Tonga giving them less preparation time if New Zealand qualify the highest in their group.
Nonetheless, it is fair to assume that there will be a significant rise in mental pressure in that quarter final match. That step up can potentially catch you out.
I have never been a great trainer. I do not possess an iron will to bust my gut in training. Although he was a drugs cheat, Lance Armstrong is an example of someone who could do a 200-kilometre ride and then repeat it because he was not satisfied with his performance. My attitude was I got through that sluggish day and would pick up the pace the next time.
When it came to race day, however, I would come to learn that I had to hold back and pace myself. I was like soft drink being released out of a shaken bottle and then left out for a couple of days with the cap left off. I would start with an almighty fizz only to fall flat.
It is a dangerous game to perform within yourself and then wait for the big day to do the talking for you. Things do not always go to plan and however much you try to anticipate things that might go wrong and prepare contingency plans, it is sometimes impossible to prepare for what happens on the day.
In 2007, both Daniel Carter and Nick Evans got injured. In 2011 we called up Stephen Donald from a whitebaiting holiday before kicking the winning points in the final.
You could not make this stuff up – but equally your fairytale scripts are mixed in with nightmare scenarios. That is sport and that is why it makes for compelling viewing.
What Gatland did not mention is that there are disadvantages to having a tough group. Stiffer competition leads to greater exertion and that can take a physical toll on you.
I liken it to the difference between training and race day. I can still go running in the hills for more than three hours or go for a five-hour ride with a half-hour run added on at the end and not feel anywhere near the effects I feel on a race day.
Consider the semi-finals of the 1995 and 2011 World Cups for New Zealand. They played impressively in both those matches. They were not by any means perfect games but they were as good as you could have possibly wished for as a fan.
The final was a similar story for Australia in 2003 and France in 1999. From a previous high to a bitter low. Once you have a noteworthy performance under your belt, it is very difficult to repeat that high again.
Curiously, when you underperform it can add a psychological boost to your next performance. We all saw the impetus that was given to New Zealand in Auckland after their performance in Sydney but there are many examples in the World Cup as well.
Australia in 1991 had a narrow escape against Ireland, South Africa a close-run contest against France in 1995 and France losing to Tonga and getting through to the quarter final on bonus points and getting to the final in 2011.
When I make a personal goal I always try to make it a realistic but challenging one. Usually I am a good judge of what my personal capabilities are but every so often I fail to live up to my own expectations. Usually the following race is a notable step up because there is a hunger to perform.
Conversely, after a near-perfect race (there really is no such thing as the perfect performance, only the ideal result), the psychological burden of having to perform as well in the following race invariably proves too great.
My conclusion when it comes to World Cups is that you can only plan for so much. You can say you prefer a certain path to the final or to play certain teams to get there but in order to win it you are always going to have to perform well at key times, ride a bit of luck at some stage and be as consistent as possible.
It may be nerve-wracking but the joy is in the competing.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.