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I am not shrugging my shoulders philosophically at the All Blacks’ loss to the Boks, as it seems much of the Shaky Isles is doing. I am fretful, irritable, and prone to sudden tears.
The only silver lining I can find in this cloud is that at least I can move on from the 2012 loss to the English.
Not that any panic buttons should be pressed, and to be sure things could be a lot worse (I could be a Wallaby supporter!), but there were a few troublesome elements to the Ellis Park performance that would benefit from some remedial action.
Perhaps chief among these was an inability to reorganise the defence until in the sheds at halftime. South Africa played with quick width, and the All Blacks’ defence was outflanked repeatedly. It is not clear why this came as quite such a surprise, as South Africa had used a similar approach at Ellis Park in 2013, with the All Blacks similarly vulnerable until half-time.
Given that defensive organiser par excellence Conrad Smith was running the shop from centre, this inability to adjust in real time was disappointing. In fact, we don’t really know if they did adjust, as in the second half South Africa did not present the same challenge, through what looked like a combination of running out of puff and shifting into defending-a-lead mode (which almost proved their undoing).
Compounding this, and indeed related to it, was that closer-in the All Blacks defended as if the South African halves were Ruan Peinaar and Morne Stein. Handre Pollard had a wonderful game for his country, but he was certainly helped by a passive defence apparently unable to respond to a Bok No. 10 taking the line on with ball in hand.
He was much assisted by having Francois Hougaard inside him – if it had been Ruan Piennar at halfback, Pollard would have had to generate all the pace himself, which would have been a much bigger ask.
If this game signals a bigger change to the way South Africa is going to play, then that should mean we’ve seen the last of Pienaar, and, dare I say it, Fourie du Preez. He may have been the best player at the 2007 World Cup, but seven years on, the faster the game the older du Preez looks. Hougaard might not quite be the answer, but South Africa needs to pick a halfback who fits with the way they want to play.
Moving from defence to attack, the All Blacks were not helped by Beauden Barrett’s transformation, in the space of a week, from Arrow to The Shoveller. Against Argentina he was excellent from the off, while time and again he has been spectacular when coming on late against tiring defences, but starting at No. 10 against the aggressive South Africans did not go so well. Barrett was tentative and especially in the first half was inclined to turn his outsides into little more than targets. He should consider himself fortunate to be starting again this Saturday.
The lateral nature of his play on the day was compounded by another problem: the increasingly predictable double-pass among the forwards in midfield. Brodie Retallick has been the main take-and-give forward through most of the Rugby Championship and in his absence, against South Africa, others took on the role.
It wasn’t pretty, but even before then it was all starting to look old – compare the last couple of games to the big win against Australia, and you are comparing a predetermined plan with forwards passing for passing’s sake, to forwards passing for a reason and the opposition being blown away.
Things did improve in the second half – when Dane Coles scored he was the fifth forward in a wonderfully precise six-man ‘backline’ (with the sixth man being a surplus-to-requirements Julian Savea flapping along on the outside). But looking across the whole match I was reminded of Manu Tuilagi’s comment after the England defeat in 2012, that he went for his intercept because he knew Kieran Read was going to throw the pass. (OK, so maybe I’m not quite over England 2012.)
In the loose forwards as well, things are not going quite to plan, with the Dream Team reunion (of Read, Richie McCaw and Jerome Kaino) not working as anticipated. Against South Africa the job was not made easier by the tight forward struggling for parity, but throughout the year Read and Kaino have struggled to reproduce their best form (think 2013 and 2011 respectively).
Kaino so far is serving as poster-boy for the perils of retreating to the soft-play area that is the domestic Japanese scene, with his 2011 brutality both on the tackle and with ball in hand appearing only in flashes. It may be that he is timing his run to perfection, and that by the time the World Cup rolls around he will be back to his fearsome best, but at the moment it’s hard to fault Steve Hansen’s decision to start in Brisbane with Liam Messam.
As for Read, whether or not he is still suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous concussions, he clearly was not the best number 8 in the Championship this year. Here’s hoping that by next year he is back firing on all cylinders; the idea of Read and Duane Vermeulen both at the top of their game going head to head, hammer and tongs, is enticing in the extreme.
Earlier in the year, I was one of those questioning whether McCaw still had what it takes, but as the Rugby Championship proceeded he just got better and better. Against South Africa he was magnificent. Can he make it to next year’s World Cup? Who knows, but for now I’ve modified my questioning; I’m only asking if he still has what it takes when his bones are broken.
What does all this mean for the game against The Shambles this Saturday? It is always possible that we will see a backs-to-the-wall miracle, but the fact that the All Blacks are coming off a loss is not going to help Australia’s cause. If the All Blacks’ tight forwards can play with a bit more venom than was managed by the selection at Ellis Park, then that should give the loosies a bit more licence to play a bit more rugby.
And if Barrett can put his Shovelling days behind him, and Conrad Smith is back on top organisational form, then it could be a long day at the office for the Wallabies.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.