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The 2014-15 NBA season tips off this week, after an eventful and action-packed off-season that saw so many stories and headlines created that it felt like the NBA never really stopped.
The world’s best player changed addresses – with LeBron James returning to his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers – in a move that had massive implications around the league.
Meanwhile, the defending champions, San Antonio, brought the entire band back together for the one thing missing from the Spurs dynasty: back-to-back titles.
On the eve of another exciting NBA season, it’s time to put my neck on the chopping block and predict who I think will be this season’s major award winners.
Most Valuable Player
Kevin Durant is the reigning MVP, but is set to miss the opening six to eight weeks of the season after fracturing a bone in his foot. Though he is expected to make a full recovery, the injury has all but ruled him out of contention for the 2014-15 MVP award, due to the fact he’s likely to miss approximately 20 games.
A quick look at the list of recent previous winners indicates that you essentially need to play the entire season – or close to – in order to be nominated the MVP.
Since the 1998/99 season, the most games an MVP has missed during the season is eleven, by Allen Iverson in 2000-01. Yet the average amount of games missed by the MVP across the last 27 seasons is just 2.6, meaning we can probably put a cross through KD’s name for this season’s highest individual accolade.
This should ensure that a familiar name takes home the Maurice Podoloff trophy. Namely, four-time winner, LeBron James. This award has been a two-horse race for a few seasons now, and with Durant essentially scratched, LeBron should have little competition.
Steph Curry is below average on defence, Anthony Davis’ team won’t win enough games, Blake Griffin isn’t really in LeBron’s class when it comes to the impact he has on a game, and I can’t really see anyone else close to the equation.
Yet don’t for a second think that LeBron winning would be some type of default victory. He’s the best player in the league, dominates games in a myriad of ways, and it would be the fifth time in seven years that his named has been etched into the trophy.
Most Improved Player
Easily the hardest award to pick, because it’s difficult to tell which player is going to suddenly have a break-out year, or which coach is unexpectedly going to give a promising player more minutes to shine.
However, considering the work he’s put into his once horrible jumpshot, I’m thinking Michael Kidd-Gilchrist might surprise a few people offensively this season. He’s always been a beast on defence, but offence is what most people notice, so if he’s improved there he’ll get plenty of votes.
To be honest, I nominate MKG with about as much confidence as I have in him hitting 10 three-pointers in a game, for I have no idea which player will be the most improved, and have never predicted this award correctly.
Defensive Player of the Year
If Australia’s own Andrew Bogut can stay injury-free, I think he could be a big chance of taking home this award. Unfortunately, given his medical history, that’s a pretty big if, so I’ll look elsewhere for a banker selection.
With the increased depth the Chicago Bulls have attained this year, along with the complete return to health – hopefully – of Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah will be freed up even more to concentrate on being a defensive menace. Combined with coach Tom Thibodeau’s defensive genius, I think that may see Noah crowned the NBA’s best defensive player for the second year in a row.
I also think Roy Hibbert’s importance on D will be magnified with the loss of Lance Stephenson and Paul George from the Indiana Pacers’ perimeter, so look out for the big fella as well.
Sixth Man of the Year
The judges seem to love offence when it comes to nominating their best bench player of the year. Rarely is the Sixth Man of the Year award given to a defensive specialist, bur rather, a player that enters the game and guns away immediately.
With that in mind, Jamal Crawford is likely to poll strongly again, Vince Carter will get a lot of open looks playing with twin towers Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, while Manu Ginobli is a perennial threat to take home this particular accolade.
Yet, I’m predicting the trend will be bucked this season, and Chicago’s Taj Gibson will be named the Sixth Man of the Year.
The athletic Gibson was the runner-up last season, and looks to have added to his offensive arsenal significantly, based on some highlights I’ve seen of him in the preseason. His footwork looks remarkably better, and he appears to have added some deft moves on the low block.
Combined with his already impressive work on the boards and on defence, I believe the Bulls reserve is the favourite in win this category.
Coach of the Year
Many are predicting disaster for the Heat this season, following the loss of superstar LeBron James back to Cleveland, but I think Miami will shock a few people.
They’ve had a solid off-season, bringing in Luol Deng and Josh McRoberts, along with drafting Shabazz Napier. Chris Bosh will return to being a number one option on offence, and Dwayne Wade will be motivated to prove to people that he’s still got a lot left in the tank. They’ve still got quite a bit of talent.
Yet above all, I think Miami will remain extremely competitive this season because their coach is great.
Erik Spoelstra is a wonderful tactician, at both ends of the floor. Though replacing LeBron’s productivity is impossible, I have no doubt that ‘Coach Spo’ will have devised some revised game plans that best utilise his new roster, and will keep his team in the hunt in the Eastern Conference.
Always a hotly contested award, I think Miami being a surprise packet will see Spoelstra rewarded with the kudos of being name Coach of the Year. And it will be long overdue.
Rookie of the Year
It’s Jabari Parker’s to lose.
He’s the most NBA-ready of any of the rookies, both in maturity, body-shape and overall game. Combine that with the fact he going to receive a ton of minutes and ton of shots for the putrid Milwaukee Bucks, and it’s hard to see anyone else challenging him, as stats have always trumped wins when judging this award.
Whether he’s the best player to come out of this draft in the long-term is a different question, but he’ll definitely be the best first-year player this season.
Keep an eye on Nerlens Noel though. It may technically be his second season after missing all of last year through injury, but he looked great in summer league and may surprise a few people who have forgotten he even exists. His absence last season aside, that also tends to happen when you play for Philly…
Executive of the Year
This award normally goes to the General Manger at the franchise that had the best off-season. The wheeler and dealer who made shrewd trades, selected astutely in the draft, and signed quality free agents.
Though the Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, Dallas Mavericks, Miami Heat and a number of other teams all had solid summers, the Cleveland Cavaliers won the lottery. No, I don’t mean the draft lottery, even though they won that as well. I mean the NBA lottery: signing LeBron James.
Though it’s debatable how much Cavs GM David Griffin really had to do with James coming back to Cleveland, the fact is the Cavs landed the best player in the NBA in the off-season. Throw in the trade for fellow star Kevin Love, and the acquisition of a number of valuable veterans like Mike Miller and Shawn Marion, and it’s hard to see this award going anywhere but Griffin’s coffee table.