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As of today there are fewer than 300 days until the Rugby World Cup 2015 kicks off.
Having yesterday looked at the chances of the tier 1 nations, let’s assess the chances of the rest of the pack, and see if we can pick the tournament winner.
The pools
Group A: England, Fiji, Wales, Uruguay, Australia
Group B: Scotland, Japan, South Africa, Samoa, USA
Group C: NZ, Tonga, Georgia, Argentina, Namibia
Group D: France, Italy, Ireland, Canada, Romania
Tier 2 Nations
Samoa, Tonga and Fiji all have their moments, but I suspect that any team worth its salt will outperform them so much at set-piece that they won’t threaten the Tier 1s too much. Success here will be getting out of the group.
Fiji are in the Group of Death with England, Australia and Wales, so their chances are slim.
Tonga recently beat Georgia, they outclass Namibia, and have the potential to beat a lacklustre Argentina, should Argentina fail to get themselves up for it. I can’t see them beating New Zealand, but good results elsewhere would be enough to get through.
Samoa aren’t intimidated by South Africa but it would be a shocker if the Boks let their guard down enough to lose. They’ll likely beat USA who still look green, and they’re perfectly capable of beating Japan. Scotland will be their rival to target.
Japan have been climbing the IRB Rankings in the last two years and now stand above Samoa. They’ll be setting exactly the same targets as Samoa – beat USA, edge out Scotland and Samoa, let South Africa roll them over. They have better discipline than Samoa but lack their flair and enterprise.
The USA will be following along the same lines in hope rather than expectation.
Late qualifiers Uruguay will be hoping to retain their dignity throughout rather than doing anything special. Namibia are similar.
Georgia are hard and have some good players but lack depth. However, beating Tonga and Argentina may not be beyond their ambitions.
Canada and Romania will be close (and play this weekend, as a barometer) and will serve as the game for minnows bragging rights in Group D
World Cup betting
These are the best prices on November 16, 2014.
New Zealand $1.6 – OK value
England $4 – Good value
South Africa $4.5 – Wait
Australia $9 – Don’t bet
Ireland $1 – Good value
France $20 – Good value
Wales $20 – Don’t bet
Argentina $80 – Don’t bet
Potential winners
It’s hard to see past New Zealand – if it was an award for consistency, then they’d be given the gold. But one loss is all it takes to knock you out in the finals, so it’s not a done deal.
The best the bookies will give you is around 8 to 5. They reckon that if you run the competition three times, then New Zealand would win it once, with an outside chance of twice. Probably a bargain at that, since their group holds very little threat to their results or health. It’s unlikely they’ll slump in form before the tournament’s start, so that price will only get worse.
England are second favourites and would be tighter than 4 to 1 but for the fact that they have to get through their group. With Wales and Australia on the wane, this is likely, but not easy. Both Wales and Australia take great delight in taking on the English, and England don’t look too clever either. But if they hit form, they’ll be the All Blacks’ closest challenger.
Good value, if you think they’ll get out of the group. Expect them to get better and that price to shorten, especially as patriotic locals will be putting a pound on them as the event gets closer.
South Africa are good – they beat New Zealand recently, so they must be – but they’re not consistently good. They’re almost certainly in the knock-out phase even before they turn up – expect the other four teams in their group to fancy their chances of that runners-up-in-the-group spot and to roll over for the Saffers in order to maximise their potential against the other teams.
South Africa have to strive to get over their usual failings – arrogance, under-estimation and discipline. They could go on to win this competition, I have no doubt, but I think 9 to 2 offers poor value. Their price will drift out from here as the Boks search for their best combo and I expect you’ll get better odds nearer to the kick-off.
Australia at 9 to 1 are reckoned to have half the chances England do of winning. Hmmmn, I think not, regardless of where the teams are now.
In the full glare of the world media staring at them, I don’t expect Australia to get out of their group. The next 10 months will see Australia’s form disintegrate further as all the recent churn takes effect. Rather than being in it to win it, Australia’s aim will be to start their youngsters off gaining experience for 2019.
If you fancy Australia to win, then I reckon you’ll be better hanging on for a better price nearer the start.
Ireland are on the march. At 12 to 1, the Six Nations champs look great value. They are cohesive, inventive and intelligent. They back that with physicality in the forwards and flair out the line. With a declining Italy in the Group, Ireland should be a gimme to get into the KO-phase, even if France are primed. Should go well and come inwards in the market. A good bet at 12s.
Wales at 20 to 1 look about right. They could go well, but they could go badly. Even when they’re good, I can’t see them getting past three KO games in a row, though. Their power game is awesome on the day, but takes its toll on them. They lack the rapier-skill needed to get through big armour and their bludgeon isn’t enough to get past sly and skilful opponents. They are evolving from Warrenball, but a little too late, I feel.
France at 20 to 1, however, are worth a few bob of anyone’s money. They might turn up or they might not, but if they do, then 20 to 1 is a bargain indeed. They usually put in a good shift at the World Cup too, proving themselves to be a competition team, bonding as the weeks go on, becoming more cohesive as the games go by.
Each way pays one-third of the price for getting into the final. France have been in three finals but have usually run out of steam by then. And they’ll have support too, being pretty much every fan’s second-favourite side.
Argentina at 80s are a poor bet. They lack depth and are on the slide down the ranks. They have too far to go to stand a chance. As do anyone else in the comp.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.