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Sometimes recruiters get drafting right, sometimes they get it wrong. Sometimes that’s horribly wrong – just ask Tigers fans.
That’s the problem when you’re dealing with an inexact science, there’s no guarantees or set formulas, just plenty of variables.
Do you take the best player available or choose on a needs basis? Do you take a punt on someone with talent but an injury query or play it safe? Do you take into account the homesickness factor for an interstate kid or select a local lad?
In recent times clubs have pumped countless hours and dollars into list management, but it’s still an tough job to pick a kid to carry your club for a decade plus – ask Melbourne fans about Jack Watts.
You can ask questions, watch tapes and witness Under-18 games first hand. You can chat with coaches and parents, you can scour statistics until you’re blue in the face and you can wax lyrical about performances at draft camp.
But how do you measure intangibles like willingness to learn, ability to cope with pressure, drive to succeed or capability to adapt from junior to senior player?
Skills are one thing – even courage and work ethic can be identified to a certain extent – but it’s those extra one percenters that can determine when a young man’s name gets called on draft night.
The only certainty on draft night is that the hopes and dreams of supporters feel like they hinge on just who their club selects.
It’s an unfair expectation to place on a kid, especially when you consider players take different lengths of time to develop. yet another head scratching variable. But it’s become a way of life, even more for fans of teams who didn’t see September action.
You’ve seen fans of the premiers rejoice in the moment, delirious with happiness – and possibly delirious with alcohol – as they belt out their theme song with gusto. Just ask Hawks fans, who are still loudly and proudly letting everyone know that it’s ‘all for one, and one for all’.
You’ve been forced to put up with their gloating and begrudgingly acknowledge that they were the best side on the day. But you’ve also been eagerly anticipating the start of pre-season, the addition of new recruits and the turning of the clock from Spring to Summer. Swans fans would knwo this feeling, since they’re desperate for another shot at glory – luckily they’re set to get Isaac Heeney for a bargain basement academy pick.
This year there’s meant to be a glut of good onballers and the Saints are tipped to take Christian Petracca. Comparing players is always tough – although the Marcus Bontempelli-Scott Pendlebury one looks a gem – but he’s described as an Ollie Wines type who has Dustin Martin explosiveness.
Key forwards like Paddy McCartin, Laurence Angwin or Scotty Gumbleton will arrive at clubs who need firepower up front. We’ll be told to wait for them to make an impact as big guys take longer to reach their potential, but we’ll be disappointed if they aren’t dominating games from the outset.
Every club drafts a player who they weren’t sure would still be there, but they’re rapt that they were. They’re pleased with their selections and have drafted well for the now, while also keeping an eye on the future, with hopes they can unearth another James Hird with pick 79, while avoiding the ghosts of Richard Tambling’s past.
There are winners and losers every year. Remember the Crows got Rory Sloane with pick 44, Tom Rockliff went to the Lions at pick five in the pre-season draft, Richmond took Ben Griffiths with pick 19 while Nat Fyfe went to the Dockers at pick 20.
Even the Hawks – who always seem to get it right – got it wrong when they chose Mitch Thorp before the Cats swooped on Joel Selwood with the following pick. Thorp played two games for the brown and gold, Selwood is… well, Joel Selwood.
Drafting is a debate that can’t be resolved without the benefit of hindsight, but it’s also become a highlight on the footy calendar.
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