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Most of us expected the end of year tours to provide some indicator as to how the Rugby World Cup in 2015 will play out. It was a question of how the Rugby Championship teams performed in the wetter, slower underfoot conditions and which tactics they would find successful.
It is true everyone would take something different out of the tours, Ireland have shown they are contenders taking out South Africa and Australia, while others have failed to impress such as England and Wales.
They do however have the coming weekend to take something positive out of the Tests.
I looked at the results and of the 12 Tests completed there were six of those Tests that I want to highlight.
France 13 – 18 Argentina
In this match Argentina got off to a great start by converting penalties and kicking four drop goals, France managed to fight back and outscored Argentina by one try to zip.
The French failed with three attempts at goal, Argentina with two, however four drop goals made the difference.
Ireland 26 – 23 Australia
Australia outscored Ireland by three tries to two, however Ireland dominated the tactical exchanges, Australia took a quick tap when they could have gone for goal, they missed two conversions while Ireland took every possible opportunity to kick at goal. That was ultimately the difference.
Australia also conceded twice the number of penalties Ireland did.
France 29 – 26 Australia
France got off to a rollicking start, but then Australia composed themselves and came back, both teams scored two tries, but ultimately it became a penalty shootout which France won.
Italy 18 – Argentina 20
Argentina scores two tries to nil, yet it is the boot that kept Italy in the game, Italy attempted seven kicks at goal, failing with only one.
Ireland 29 – 15 South Africa
Ireland outwitted South Africa even though South Africa dominates territory and possession, both teams scored two tries, but where South Africa declined kicks at goal, Ireland took every opportunity available to them.
Wales 28 – 33 Australia
Even though Wales outscores Australia by four tries to three, it is the boot that wins it for Australia, they win by virtue of converting three penalties, Wales have none.
From these six matches we can draw three crucial facets that will determine the outcome of the next Rugby World Cup.
1. The Boot
When you look at the Irish performance this month, Johnny Sexton stands out like a sore thumb. Tt was his tactical kicking and his goal kicking that proved decisive in both their wins over South Africa and Australia. Also consider how many tries came from chip kicks in behind the rush defence and beautifully finished tries from cross-kicks.
You add the drop goals from Nicholas Sanchez for Argentina against France and it becomes clear that the teams who do not possess the necessary skills to dictate territory, exit their red zones, kick their goals, have the ability to use attacking chips and grubbers and finally slot the odd drop goal will be severely disadvantaged going into the Rugby World Cup.
2. Breakdown
The breakdown has become more than just a facet to link phase plays together, it has become defensive offence, Ireland has once again been leading the way in the manner that they execute defence at the breakdown.
No longer is it good enough to slow down ball, it is no longer about attempting the odd steal or turnover, it is about truly spoiling the attacking opportunity for the opposition, and I don’t suggest this lightly, by any means necessary.
The All Blacks have long been leading the way in how to slow down ball, Richie McCaw has been the ‘lone ranger’ in showing us the way how to truly slow down and steal opposition ball, but he is no patch when it comes to the new age methods where it is no longer a single man’s job, but rather a collective effort.
It is akin to fighting off a pride of Lions, while one is gnawing at your backside, another is ripping your chest open, while two more are having a go at your legs, all the while you forget about the ball you are supposed to protect.
3. Discipline
Perhaps the key to success next year. The knock-out matches will be tight and tense affairs, you can bet your bottom dollar that smart teams will take every opportunity to kick at goal.
Players will have to be cautious in the manner they contest the highball, Habana was called twice for ‘timing’, execution for challenging an opponent will come down to who gets in the air first.
High tackles will be taboo, lifting a player beyond the horizontal will be met by the obligatory card, and shoulder charges could spell the end of your match.
Above all, the ability to read the match day referee’s interpretation at the breakdown will be key, understanding what each of them deem as being off your feet, having released the tackled player, or when a ruck is deemed to be formed will be vital for any team having aspirations of progressing into the final stages.
The offside line has been blurred, as seen a number of times this month, the ruck’s last line off feet is deemed relative by each referee, and although it can be exploited, care must be taken to ensure you remain on the right side of the referee.
I am sure there are many other factors that will play part in the outcome of the 2015 Rugby World Cup, but these three factors will determine the champion.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.