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In 2012 Heyneke Meyer appointed Jean de Villiers as his captain, soon after he committed that Jean de Villiers will lead South Africa in the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
Nothing wrong with that thinking, and initially it looked like a safe choice. In 2013 Jean de Villiers was back to his best and he looked the part, leading from the front and being the epitome of class off it.
Jean de Villiers would finish his international career in the showcase of world rugby.
Sadly, this plan has now been put on ice as Jean suffered a horrific knee injury and underwent reconstruction surgery. The recovery period unknown, but expected to be eight months.
Considering all factors, even if de Villiers does return to the field of play, the psychological damage alone may prevent him of captaining South Africa in the upcoming Rugby World Cup.
Jacque Fourie recently announced his retirement from international rugby. After giving Heyneke Meyer his commitment to be ready for international duty, Heyneke was sitting pretty, he had his world class midfield sorted for the biggest tournament of his career.
There is no doubt that their record partnership of 47 Tests was world class and one could forgive Heyneke Meyer for banking on these two players to provide him the stability he requires in the world cup.
However, what should be a concern is that Meyer is now in a potential situation where he would require a total rethink of his midfield.
So who are the contenders?
At inside centre you have Junior World Player of the Year in 2012, Jan Serfontein, newcomer Damien de Allende who by all accounts look like the real deal, and Frans Steyn, the youngest player to have won a world cup final.
At outside centre, the pacey JJ Engelbrecht, Junior World Cup winner (2012) Paul Jordaan and light footed Juan du Jongh are the potential players available to Heyneke Meyer.
Although statistics can be misleading it is a good starting point when discussing each of these players. I used the 2014 Super Rugby data available from SANZARR to compare the players.
Defence
Due to Meyer’s conservative nature, defence will be a priority, and here JJ Engelbrecht (90% tackle success) and Jan Serfontein (87%) stand out. Paul Jordaan (83%) and Damien de Allende (82%) are next and the two weakest players in defence is Frans Steyn (79%) and Juan du Jongh (75%).
Metres per carry
Damien de Allende (5.7) and Paul Jordaan (6.5) stand out as the best combination, then JJ Engelbrecht (5.1) and Jan Serfontein (3.5), with Juan du Jongh (4.2) and Frans Steyn (3.1) bringing up the rear.
Carries per defenders beaten and clean breaks
As a combination Damien de Allende (2.4 carries), could be partnered with either Paul Jordaan (2.2 carries) or Juan du Jongh (2.2 carries). JJ Engelbrecht at 2.4 carries is not far behind with Jan Serfontein (4.1 carries) and Frans Steyn (5.5 carries) needed per line break or defender beaten.
Distribution
There are two categories to consider, general ability to distribute and ability to offload in the tackle.
Distribution wise, Frans Steyn leads the way with Jan Serfontein and Paul Jordaan next, although it must be said that Juan du Jongh, JJ Engelbrecht and Damien de Allende aren’t far behind.
Frans Steyn and Damien de Allende lead the way when it comes to offloading in the tackle, both making an offload every nine carries, Serfontein makes an offload every 10 carries, Juan du Jongh one every 11 carries, Jordaan one in 13 carries and JJ Engelbrecht, one every 28 carries.
At outside centre Frans Steyn is the worst offender when it comes to conceding turnovers in the tackle and Paul Jordaan alongside JJ Engelbrecht concede the most at outside centre.
So what do these statistics tell us?
Defensively there is no doubt that Jan Serfontein and JJ Engelbrecht is by far the better defensive combination.
If you consider all the aspects that make up attacking play, metres per carry, ability to beat a defender or cut a clean break, turnovers conceded in the tackle area, ability to offload in the tackle, then Paul Jordaan and Damien de Allende offer the best value. Although it has to be said that Juan du Jongh on attack does not fall far short of the mark.
The problem analysing these statistics is that the Super Rugby teams in South Africa do not employ the same game plan, and making a clean break is often due to the distributor as much as it is due to the support player running into the space, so how much credit do you attribute to each player involved?
Work rate plays a huge role in determining a player’s commitment, especially in defence as it is all about attitude.
What these statistics fail to tell you is that Damien de Allende played a number of matches at wing, Paul Jordaan played a number of matches at inside centre and Frans Steyn half his matches at 10.
There was a significant difference in distribution by Frans Steyn at 10 compared to him at 12, Paul Jordaan’s defence at 12 was much poorer than his defence at 13, and Damien made more metres but missed more tackles on the wing.
So observation plays a big part in evaluating each of these players.
Jan Serfontein has learnt a lot from playing at 13 for South Africa and although he is not a natural 13, understanding the lines needed at 13 might well improve his play at his preferred position, his commitment is unfailing, his work rate is high and he is a powerful ball carrier and committed to the defence, so he will be my first choice at 12.
Damien de Allende lacks the experience of the other players, however his strength with ball in hand, his size and ability to offload and having a good turn of speed suggests to me with more experience he will become an all-rounded player and therefor get my vote as second choice.
Frans Steyn is an enigma, big, strong and very experienced, but often found wanting when it comes to conditioning. His statistics confirm his propensity for relying too much on his physicality to fight the tackle, most offloads, but also most turnovers conceded means the play is often halted in midfield and momentum is lost.
He is also defensively the weakest. He therefore does not get my vote.
At outside centre Paul Jordaan may be behind JJ Engelbrecht when it comes to defence, but as I mentioned his defence at inside centre negatively affects his tackling stats. When considering his all-round attacking ability, there is no doubt he can become the playmaker South Africa so desperately need in the 13 jersey.
He is there for my first choice.
JJ Engelbrecht gives the impression he is flaky on defence, but his statistics do not lie. His pace and ability to break through tackles is his strength, but his downfall is his inability to keep the play alive, conceding a high number of turnovers at the tackle area.
His reluctance to offload suggests he might be better suited to the wing, and because of that, he gets my vote as second choice.
Juan du Jongh has brilliant feet, pace and is surprisingly strong for his size. On attack he can be devastating, but his work rate in defence, and his poor defensive statistics would mean the defensive line will be compromised too often. A team is only as strong as its weakest link.
Heyneke Meyer has some decisions to make, the problem he faces is that he has run out of time.
Only JJ Engelbrecht and Jan Serfontein have been capped a dozen or more caps in the last two years, Paul Jordaan has been called up to the Springbok training camps but injury has prevented him to get his opportunity.
Damien de Allende has not had many opportunities at all, and regardless of Frans Steyn’s form, Meyer will no doubt select him.
This means if JJ Engelbrecht is not selected, South Africa will go into the 2015 Rugby World Cup with a makeshift, and under form, midfield.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.