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With more than 2.5 billion people expected to tune in on television sets, the Asian Cup represents the Australia’s best chance to showcase its football credentials to the world.
With that exposure comes a lot of pressure, both on the Socceroos, organisers and the Australian public.
The team are expected to ride home-advantage and win the tournament, or at the very least make the semi-finals. The organisers have done most of the necessary hard work but will be judged on how many people turn out.
And that’s where it comes down to the football fans. Will they turn out in droves, or at least in respectable numbers? Will they be bothered to head to Hunter Stadium for a less-than-glamorous clash between Oman and Kuwait?
In many ways, I’m confident that the crowds will show up, but there’s also that nagging doubt creeping in. Images of near-empty stadiums shot across the globe would be the worst-case scenario. Two semi-finals not featuring the Socceroos and failing to get close to selling out as a result is another nightmare.
There are 32 games packed in across 23 days, and it’s not only a chance for Australia to prove its worth in the AFC, but a chance to prove it’s more than capable of hosting the FIFA World Cup in the future. It’s a litmus test of sorts for the game Down Under.
While the successful Sydney Olympics was used as evidence of Australia’s capacity to host large sporting events, there has never been any proof that the country can successfully support a football tournament, especially games featuring minnows with no superstar names.
What we must accept is that there will be fixtures in the tournament that won’t conjure up respectable crowds. Iraq and Palestine at Canberra Stadium in what could be a dead rubber on January 20? If that gets more than a couple of thousand the Cosmos should be brought back from the dead immediately.
In past tournaments, some games have only managed to attract between 1000 and 3000 fans, so if there are a couple of ghost stadiums along the way it’s not the end of the world. But we should be looking to top Qatar’s Asian Cup in 2011.
About 405,000 collectively rocked up to Qatar and that should be our minimum target. The 2011 version was littered with reports of mismanagement and spectators being denied access to stadiums, with an Australia versus Japan group game managing to pull just 3000 despite cheap ticket prices.
The average was about 12,600, according to ESPN Soccernet, though there are varying statistics out there. If Australia can overtake Qatar’s average crowd from the 2011 Asian Cup, it would be a huge boon for the country, and would further put FIFA’s decision to give the Middle East country rights to the 2022 tournament over a trip to the southern hemisphere under scrutiny.
The previous tournament in 2008 was a joint venture between Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia and their crowds were boosted due to each nation playing all three groups games in front of their own fans.
The aggregate attendance was 690,000, with an average of more than 20,000. The tournament’s attendances were hugely boosted by Indonesia’s fervent support, however, who packed out the 88,000-capacity Gelora Bung Karno Stadium for group matches and provided more than 66,000 for the final.
Again, the less favourable matches were poorly attended at times, with Saudi Arabia versus Bahrain and Oman versus Iraq only enticing an estimated 500 fans.
So if Australians flick over to Uzbekistan versus Kuwait and see a near-empty Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, there’s nothing to be too disheartened about. It’s natural in the Asian Cup, and should not be considered a failure.
Australian organisers have reportedly set a minimum target of 350,000 but are expecting more than 500,000. It sounds like a big ask, but is entirely plausible if the Socceroos make their way to the semis. The tournament’s success, both on the pitch and off it, relies on their performances. Without their pull the crowds will fall, and organisers will likely be counting on their progression to the final to ensure the budget is met.
If we consider that the Socceroos should sell-out close to all of their matches, that’s 166,000 for the group stages and between 85,000 and 114,000 for the quarter-final and semi-final.
That means another 250,000 spectators are necessary for the remaining games, not including the big show on January 31 at Stadium Australia. That’s an average of 10,000 for each fixture. It’s not unachievable, but it will be interesting to see how much our country embraces the world game.
Matches involving Japan, Iraq and Iran have reportedly been going well, as have the Socceroos’ opener against Kuwait and their clash with South Korea in Brisbane.
The organisers have offered group packages, involving multiple tickets to certain stadia, which should help push along games featuring the likes of Iran and Bahrain. But how well will Canberrans turn out for South Korea versus Oman and the Novocastrians for Oman versus Kuwait?
There are some decisions in scheduling that are simply baffling. The Socceroos will play one group game in each of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, and all should be well received. But putting them in the Melbourne Rectangular Stadium, with a capped capacity of just 30,000, is an odd choice. They could easily have pulled more than that in the Victorian capital.
Similarly, it seems illogical not to showcase China in Sydney. They play two matches in Brisbane and one match in Canberra. Not utilising the large Chinese population in either the New South Wales capital or Melbourne looks foolish.
Instead, Stadium Australia will host Uzbekistan versus North Korea when China entertain Saudi Arabia in Brisbane, while Melbourne will host two Saudi Arabia matches instead of entertaining China.
The biggest worry, though, will be Group C, which involves the likes of UAE, Qatar, Iran and Bahrain. Whether any of those fixtures will be able to attract the required crowds is a big worry.
Then there’s the choice of giving Newcastle a semi-final. Novocastrians are a traditionally fickle bunch when it comes to local sport – both in rugby league and football – never mind matches featuring less globally known players. Will they bother to show up if the Socceroos aren’t involved? Similarly, are organisers missing out on a bumper crowd through using the 33,000-capacity Hunter Stadium?
Sharing the Cup is a great initiative, but the scheduling hasn’t given us the best chance of getting the most out of the tournament. Then again, putting every game in Sydney isn’t a strong sign of football in the country, and spreading the love is the best way to promote football and the Asian Cup.
There’s always that lingering doubt, which any true football fan would inevitably feel. The Asian Cup is a big deal, so hopefully Australia realises that and turns up accordingly. If you haven’t bought your tickets, get on it now. It’s a pity that I won’t have a chance to see any of the action live.
Here’s to the Australian football public, and here’s to a successful Asian Cup both on the pitch and in the stands. Asia, and the world to an extent, are watching, and this is a big opportunity to show we’re serious about the world game.
Follow Janek on Twitter @JanekSpeight
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