Let’s imagine we are playing a word association game back in November. First, let’s start with the Atlanta Hawks. For mine, the things that come to mind include ‘ho hum’, ‘mediocre’ and ‘irrelevant’.
What’s more, I can back those up with some evidence.
History
The Hawks’ franchise history since moving to Atlanta in 1968 is sobering. Four division titles, nine 50-win seasons and that’s it. Since moving from the Western Conference to the East in 1969-1970, the Hawks have never made it past the second round.
As far as sustained futility goes, that is amongst the more remarkable 45-year runs. No wonder the Atlanta fans stay away in droves, with the Hawks’ reported attendance at home games in 2013-14 ranking 28th in the league, ahead of only the 76ers and Bucks, AKA ‘The Twin Tankers’.
Last season was the third consecutive time Atlanta were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs, going down to the Indiana Pacers in seven games. After stealing Game 1 in Indiana, the Hawks needed only to win their home games for the remainder of the series but alas they lost Game 4 and proceeded to lose the series. The impact may well have been lost on the NBA world – when Atlanta gets dumped in the playoffs again and no-one sees it happen, did it actually eventuate?
2014-15 season
Fast forward to this season and after a disappointing 126-115 home loss to Toronto on November 26, where they conceded more than 120 points for the third time in the young campaign, the Hawks slipped to 7-6. NBA fanatics and casual observers alike wouldn’t have batted an eyelid, and those in the know expected the Hawks to muddle through the season and those new to the game wouldn’t even know the team existed.
Then Thanksgiving came and went and something happened. Charmed turkey or otherwise, the turnaround has been phenomenal. Atlanta are 27-2 since this time, having not conceded more than 107 points in a game during this time when they have compiled winning streaks of nine, five and their current 13 games.
Their current road winning-streak is 12 games, which is within four games of the NBA record held by the legendary 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers. Included in those 12 scalps are Cleveland, Houston, Dallas, Portland, the LA Clippers, Toronto and Chicago. The average margin during the streak is almost 11 points per game and the Hawks have failed to pass 100 points just twice.
With their next five road games being against New Orleans, Memphis, Minnesota, Boston and Milwaukee we may well be on the verge of the most unlikely piece of historical NBA excellence that we will see.
Whichever way you analyse it, the last eight weeks from Atlanta has been truly remarkable and the average punter is slowly catching up – Vegas have wound in the Hawks’ title odds from 41-1 to 7-1 in the last fortnight. But the pertinent question remains – is this sustainable? I mean, c’mon, this is Atlanta we are talking about. Well, let’s take a look
Offensive statistics
Atlanta rank sixth in offensive efficiency, third in effective field goal percentage and third in true shooting percentage. Arguably lacking a superstar, the Hawks lead the league in assists and assists per field goal made as they turn to any one of a number of lethal offensive options.
Kyle Korver is in his 11th season and has had a serviceable career as a spot-up shooter, but has gone to the next level of efficiency this season. Korver ranks second in effective field goal percentage, first in true shooting percentage, first in three-point percentage (53.6%) and three-pointers made and third in field goal percentage among guards (51.3%).
Korver remains on target for a historic 50-50-90 season, adding a 92.2 percentage free throw percentage to those other impressive statistics.
Paul Millsap has provided 17 points, 8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.9 blocks per game to go with an effective field goal percentage of 51.6 per cent, and a true shooting percentage of 56.4 per cent. Millsap ranks in the NBA’s top 20 in his player efficiency rating and win shares, putting him among an elite group to feature in both lists.
Point guard Jeff Teague has also taken his game to another level with 17.2 points, 7.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game while having a 51.5 per cent and a true shooting percentage of 58.6 per cent. Teague exceeds his career average in all these categories and looks to be poised to make the jump to join the elite point guards in the league.
Al Horford is a serviceable NBA player. Need a big guy to set screens, roll off a pick and play solid defence without any fuss or fanfare? The Dominican Republic native is your guy, with career stats of 14.1 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks while shooting 54.1 per cent from the field.
Those numbers are 15.4, 6.6, 1.4 and 54.0 per cent this season. Consistency, thy name is Al. Even when the guy hits a game winner he reacts like he just scored the first bucket of the game. Didn’t anyone tell Al that he should carry on like a madman when doing something this cool? Dude, you are a stud and the mascot even wanted some love. OK, fair enough, just keep on being ridiculously valuable and effective then big guy.
Perhaps the most impressive statistic is that no Atlanta player features inside the top 40 for usage, top 25 for points per game, top 20 for rebounds per game or the top 35 for minutes per game. These reflect the fact that this truly is an impressive team, but more on that later.
Defensive statistics
Atlanta rank fifth in defensive efficiency and lead the league in points conceded at just 96.3. Over the last 29 games, that number improves to 92.6 points per game.
The Hawks also rank fourth in opponents field goal percentage and rank in the top five for both points conceded on the fast break and in the paint. They achieve these numbers while having a negative rebound differential and playing elite team defence, relying on a bunch of crafty veterans who play the passing lanes and trust in a coach and system.
Intangibles
Mike Budenholzer is a head coach who never played in the NBA. He played some college and some professional ball in Denmark but his greatest influence was likely legendary San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, under whom ‘Bud’ served as a video coordinator and then assistant for 18 seasons.
Many of the successful traits of Popovich can been seen in Budenholzer – no reliance on one player, a defensive scheme that integrates all five players on court, a tendency to rest players for reasons unbeknown to the rest of us and over last two months; winning. Budenholzer has the Hawks as one of just two teams ranked inside the top 10 for both offensive and defensive efficiency, the other being the Golden State Warriors who are dominating the West as Atlanta are the East.
Popovich is regarded as a cagey, unique character who has ultimately succeeded because his players trust him and he gets the best out of what he has got. Sure, having an all-time top 12 player (Tim Duncan) and top five all-time international player (Manu Ginobili) as your cornerstones has helped, but Pop has been the most crafty, resourceful and successful coach of our time.
The one thing that he had but that Budenholzer doesn’t is a superstar. Basketball is a sport where star power is key – if you put two evenly matched teams on the floor and let them play a long series, the team with the best player normally wins. Sure there are exceptions to this rule but come crunch time in the playoffs, you give the ball to your best player and get out of the way.
Take a glance at the list of NBA champions since 1980 and you will see that just one team does not have a sure-fire current or future Hall of Famer – the 2004 Detroit Pistons, who rode a balanced defensive core and fantastic chemistry to the title, helped by a dash of Shaqobe meltdown to the title. Of the other teams in that list every single one had someone like Michael Jordan, Duncan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal or Dirk Nowitzki to turn to – these players delivered time and time again.
The Hawks have no-one remotely resembling a Hall of Famer, with their top four players fundamentally gifted and very efficient but nothing more. The support cast includes luminaries such as DeMarre Carroll, Thabo Sefolosha, Dennis Schroder, Pero Antic and Mike Scott. Antic’s similarity to a movie villain is the most viable talking point amongst that crew.
Glance at the Eastern Conference and most people probably see three teams more likely to make the NBA Finals than the Hawks. Cleveland have LeBron James, Chicago have Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol and the Washington crew have the league’s best young two-way guard, an imposing front line and a veteran stud to close games out. But yet the Hawks keep winning in front of half empty stadiums against the backdrop of relocation chatter and general indifference.
At some stage we might need to sit up and take notice because a sustained period of excellence like the one Atlanta is experiencing cannot be a fluke. Then again it is the Hawks we are talking about so will anyone be watching when that happens, and does anyone really care?
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