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Are the Queensland Reds a write off before a scrum is packed down in the 2015 Super Rugby campaign?
The recruitment of former All Black Adam Thomson, wayward Wallaby James O’Connor and code-hopper Karmichael Hunt has been a cause for plenty of enthusiasm among Reds supporters this summer after a couple of disappointing seasons since the heady days of 2011.
But have hopes for a return to the Super Rugby finals and even higher honours been dashed with the long-term injury to Wallabies five-eighth Quade Cooper?
Unfortunately for Reds fans the answer is probably yes.
Cooper was crucial to the Reds’ title win in 2011 and the team’s fortunes over the years have been heavily dependent on him. When he fires there are few more exciting players in world rugby.
One of the reasons for Queensland’s recent fall from grace – which in their woeful 2014 season left them just above the wooden spoon, with 5 wins from 16 games – was Cooper spending a considerable amount of time on the injured list.
Staggeringly, after a training mishap resulted in a broken collarbone requiring surgery and a three month recovery, there’s no obvious replacement for the key playmaker in Queensland’s squad.
The absence of Cooper until at least the middle of the season has raised serious doubts over any potential Reds revival. The betting agencies at this stage only rate them a mediocre mid-table finisher with odds of $15 – well behind pre-season favourites the Waratahs and Chiefs.
Cooper’s collarbone fracture looks likely to offer an opportunity for 20-year-old rugby league convert Duncan Paia’aua.
It’s incredible that the Reds’ squad doesn’t include more experienced back-up, such as the Crusaders who have an All Black in Colin Slade to cover Dan Carter.
While O’Connor started at 10 for the Wallabies in the losing 2013 Test series against the British and Irish Lions, and Hunt has experience at fly half in French rugby, Reds coach Richard Graham at this stage wants to keep that pair in the back three.
Graham will be a man under intense pressure if the Reds have a poor start to their campaign. And trusting young Paia’aua with such a huge responsibility could backfire.
Despite the fact he is well credentialed as an assistant coach, Graham’s record in charge of Super Rugby teams is underwhelming, with a winning average of around only 30 per cent during stints at the Western Force and the Reds.
Graham’s already made some interesting decisions for the 2015 campaign by appointing Wallabies prop James Slipper as captain with Test lock Rob Simmons and Hunt as vice-captains.
Former skippers James Horwill and Will Genia – both likely to be England-bound after the World Cup – are not part of Graham’s leadership group, while Cooper was also overlooked.
A feature of the Reds’ decline since their 2011 title success has been the departure of key players.
Scott Higginbotham has been sorely missed since he left Ballymore to go to Melbourne, while the Rebels have now also picked up Mike Harris, Dom Shipperley and Radike Samo, after his stint overseas.
Given the off-season activities with the Reds, there’ll be plenty of interest in this weekend’s trial match against the Rebels in Cairns and many furrowed brows if the early indications for the season ahead are less than promising.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.