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Cue the ‘strongest conference’ arguments

30th March, 2015
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The Brumbies and Waratahs are the only Aussie sides with any chance of making the Super Rugby finals. (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
Expert
30th March, 2015
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After the completion of Round 7, the Super Rugby table’s a weird-looking beast.

Courtesy of the conference system, we again have this situation where the teams listed in fourth and fifth have better records than two of the top-three teams, who of course occupy the spots they do by virtue of leading their national conferences.

The table after Round 7 has the undefeated Hurricanes in the overall lead, on 27 points. The Brumbies on 20, and the Sharks on 19, round out the three conference leaders in the top spots.

Behind them in the three wildcard spots are the Chiefs on 24 points, but with one more win than the Brumbies and a superior record to the Sharks in every facet.

The Highlanders follow on 20 points, also with a better points differential and more bonus points than the Sharks.

The Waratahs’ 23-11 win over the Blues on Saturday night in Sydney lifted them into the top six for the first time this season. They have 18 points, from four wins and two bonus points, and sit ahead of the Bulls in terms of both points differential and the number of tries scored.

(For reference, Super Rugby uses the following tie-breaking sequence for teams on equal competition points: number of wins, then points differential, then the number of tries scored, and then the differential of tries scored and tries conceded. And should two teams at the end of the season remain deadlocked after all this convolution, a coin will be tossed.)

The Stormers were the big movers this weekend. Sitting atop the South African conference going into Round 7, their 39-21 thumping at the hands of the Highlanders under the roof in Dunedin saw them plummet from third in the standings down to eighth overall.

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Similarly, the Sharks’ win over the Force saw them jump into the top three, after they were only above the Highlanders by a single differential point.

When you look further into the conferences, this is where the strongest and weakest conference debate quickly emerges.

New Zealand
Hurricanes 27 points – six wins
Chiefs 24 – five
Highlanders 20 – four
Crusaders 14 – three
Blues 4 – zero

Australia
Brumbies 20 – four
Waratahs 18 – four
Rebels 11 – two
Force 8 – one
Reds 6 – one

South Africa
Sharks 19 – four
Bulls 18 – four
Stormers 16 – four
Lions 13 – three
Cheetahs 9 – two

One thing is certain: Australia is not the strongest conference currently!

The Brumbies and Waratahs are obviously travelling well, but all of the Brumbies’ wins, and three of the Waratahs’ four wins have come from within the Australian conference.

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The Waratahs bounced back in recent weeks, with solid wins over the Brumbies (coincidentally) and the Blues. The Brumbies’ wins have been against the Reds, Rebels, and Force.

And as has been pointed out, the Australian teams performances against the other conferences has been far from convincing thus far.

The Rebels’ surprise win – and on current form, we have to now call it a surprise win – over the Crusaders in Round 1, and the Tahs’ win over the Blues on Saturday night are the only inter-conference successes. From 10 games.

The New Zealand teams, apart from the Blues, and even with the Crusaders going down to the Bulls on Sunday morning, look ominously strong, and I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see three of them finish in the playoffs. However, they haven’t really had much chance to take points off each other to date, with only six derbies played in the first seven rounds.

In those games, the Hurricanes are two from two, the Chiefs and the Highlanders are both one from three, the Crusaders have won one and lost one, and the Blues are obviously winless.

Against Australian and South African sides, the Kiwis have enjoyed twelve wins from nineteen games, with the Hurricanes and Highlanders unbeaten in four and three games, respectively. The Chiefs have won three of four, the Crusaders two from four, and the Blues have lost all four.

The South African conference is already proving competitive, with three teams in the top eight overall, and only 10 points separating the five teams. The Sharks, Bulls, and Stormers have all won four games, while the Lions now return to the Republic with an unprecedented three wins from four games on tour.

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Within the conference, it’s becoming bloody hard to follow. The Cheetahs beat the Sharks and the Stormers beat the Bulls in the first round. Then the Sharks beat the Lions. Then the Stormers beat the Lions and the Bulls beat the Sharks in Round 3.  Then, in Rounds 4 and 5, the Bulls beat the Cheetahs, the Stormers beat the Sharks, and the Sharks beat the Cheetahs.

Still following? No, neither am I (as proven by my tipping).

Outside the conference, the South African sides have won 9 from 16 games, though only the Lions have recorded wins on tour. They’re also enjoying success against the lowly Australian sides, with the Force losing both games of the African tour, and the Reds and Rebels both losing to the touring Lions.

Even though the Stormers have only just started their tour, and the Sharks and Bulls don’t head east until May, the argument for the South African conference being the hardest this year – or at least so far this year – is solid. It’s certainly unpredictable.

They can, on their day, all beat each other, and they’re certainly no easybeats on tour anymore. I had the Bulls and Sharks as the top South African teams, but the mixed form of both those teams and the unexpected rise of the Stormers and Lions this season has me re-evaluating these predictions already.

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