Bringing in a new head coach can have a dramatic impact on the direction of an AFL club. Undefeated sides like Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs may be experiencing the positive end of that right now.
For the win-less Gold Coast Suns, a year of experiencing the negative end may be in store.
While it’s perhaps too early to make big calls, it’s noteworthy that three of the clubs raising eyebrows in 2015 have new coaches.
In fact, it follows something of a trend. The ‘new coach factor’ appears to be real and relevant.
Last year, five clubs went into the season with a new, non-caretaker head coach. By the end of the season, the percentage of these clubs had shifted by an average of 21, compared to an average shift of 11 among the other clubs.
On the whole, bringing in a new head coach means sharper improvement or more dramatic decline.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Rodney Eade and the Suns are in for a shocker, or that Luke Beveridge and the Western Bulldogs are firmly in the top-eight mix.
But it does show clubs that hire a new coach are going to experience changes to their environment and their way of approaching the game, changes that will be exposed in results during the season.
And one suspects a big change is exposing itself at Adelaide in the opening rounds of this season.
The Crows were super impressive against North Melbourne in Round 1, winning the contest across all areas of the park with 16 more inside 50s and booting 21 goals once they got it in there.
New captain Taylor Walker, who bagged six, led the way in that department and looks to be in as good form as he’s ever been – an ominous sign.
They then backed up by building a 56-point buffer over Collingwood after three quarters last week. They forced more than double the Pies’ number of forward 50 turnovers, a sign that Walsh’s attempts to shore up the side’s defence are going to plan.
Both North and the Pies were held to only 63 points.
Atop the ladder with a percentage of 182, another big win against Melbourne today could see some serious discussion about Adelaide kick off. And that could easily be a discussion that sticks around.
In fixture terms, the Crows don’t play any of Hawthorn, Sydney or Fremantle twice, a major advantage. But there’s also a ‘sleeping giant’ vibe that may have some substance to it.
Before the first bounce this season, AFL.com.au’s The Inquirer noted each of the past three premiers started the season with six players rated by Champion Data as ‘elite’ for their position.
Going into 2015, only two clubs met that criteria: Hawthorn, with eight, and Adelaide, with six.
Now, you can take this stat with a grain of salt as West Coast had five players ranked as elite and they aren’t in any top-four discussions.
On the flipside, it’s worth noting Taylor Walker isn’t even one of the players ranked in that top bracket – Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane, Brodie Smith, Sam Jacobs, Daniel Talia and Eddie Betts are.
If you factor in Walker’s possible rise to the elite – and note some of the clubs’s other improvers so far – the list is in a healthy position.
Obviously, we’re looking at a small sample size to date. It has to be remembered the Crows were 2-8 against top-eight opposition last year. But the early signs are good. The list is worthy of including them in more discussions.
And, perhaps most important of all, Phil Walsh appears to have had a pretty dramatic impact.
We’re taking a look at one player from each team that needs to make a difference this week, starting with the ANZAC Day games.
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