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The South African conference has been dominated by three teams this season but it has not been the usual Bulls, Stormers and Sharks.
The Sharks have fallen away this year and the Lions, on the back of five wins in a row, have surged into prominence. The Cheetahs have been woeful and should battle out last spot with the equally disappointing Sharks.
Leading the South African conference are the Stormers with 30 points. They are back to their best, winning games with their brutal defence and discipline. They are not the flashiest team to watch but they know how to ground out a win.
With the Rebels, Brumbies, Cheetahs and Lions at home and the Cheetahs and Sharks away they have a nice run home and should notch at least four wins, which will be good enough to wrap up the South African conference. On form they will probably start favourite in every game and could potentially win them all and challenge for top spot.
Keeping them honest on 29 points are the Bulls, but they have yet to leave South Africa. They have a couple of home games against the Lions and Cheetahs which they would like their chances in, but with away games to the Blues, Chiefs, Brumbies and Rebels they will probably need to win two or three of them to win the South African conference or secure a top six spot.
They have looked better of recent times after an erratic start to the season but they will need to keep things rolling.
The Lions, on 26 points, sit just one win off top spot in the conference. A win over the Bulls and a loss to the Stormers could even see them top the conference this week, which would be remarkable given where they were six weeks ago. They are a team with form and self belief, which are a potent combination. They have a very tough run home and will definitely shape the top six.
At home they play the Highlanders, Brumbies and Waratahs while away they play the Bulls, Cheetahs and Stormers. They will probably need to win four of these to make the finals but given every game is in South Africa and they are on a five-game winning streak, they cannot be ruled out.
Sitting in fourth spot is the Sharks on 21 points. They have looked very ordinary this season, copping a few beltings and scrapping home with some lucky wins. They are seven points outside the top six and with their tour just beginning and games against the Highlanders, Hurricanes, Waratahs and Reds their season should be done and dusted in three weeks’ time.
They finish the season with home games to the Rebels and Stormers but by that stage they will only be playing for pride.
In last spot in the South African conference on 16 points are the Cheetahs. They have looked OK on attack but they have woeful defence which has seen them concede 30 points a game.
They finish off their season in South Africa with home games to the Stormers, Highlanders, Lions and Waratahs with the Bulls and Stormers away which is a positive for them. With a few upsets in their home games, they could shape the top six but they look too far off the pack to be in contention of a top six spot.
This conference looks like it’s the Stormers’ to lose. They already have the top spot and they have finished their tour matches. They look the pick of the South African teams. Should the Bulls have a strong tour they could threaten and the Lions have been finding a way to win and can’t be ruled out of contention.
It’s definitely the most open of the conferences, but the Sharks and Cheetahs are not going well enough to threaten.
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