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Michael Hooper or David Pocock? We have all heard it, discussed it, and passionately bled into out keyboards debating it. And while it will be a headache for Michael Cheika to decide, the choice of our wingers on the other hand will turn that into a migraine.
It’s not as simple as one or the other, we have been blessed with an abundance of international standard wingers, but who will make the squad and be our World Cup winner?
World Cups are not won by wingers alone, nor would I say they would be the most important component to a winning side, but they do score the most amount of tries and that’s how Cheika wants to win.
The big question, though, is who will be the destructive pair that carries out his plan? The easiest way to find out the most prolific player would be through the stats. I know, I know, I just sent you to sleep with one word but carry on and you might be pleasantly surprised by how interesting it can be.
Personally I believe stats can be misleading and are largely contributed to the side you play in and the game plan implemented, as a result I will only focus on three factors – metres gained, tackling and beast factor.
That’s right, I haven’t taken into account the largest factor in a winger’s role, tries. Reason being is that it is a direct result of the coach’s game plan, a successful team and the players inside the winger. This is also why I am not going to talk about total amount but only percentages, and I have ranked them to make it more palatable and comparable.
Now let’s look at metres run. When a winger touches the ball he needs to make metres, it his job to get the team significantly over the advantage line as they have run the risk of sending the ball out wide.
Run metres
8.5m – Taqele Naiyaravoro
7.1m – Joe Tomane
6.8m – Rob Horne
6.3m – Nick Cummins
5.9m – James O’Connor
5.8m – Henry Speight
4.8m – Adam Ashley-Cooper
What surprised me the most was that Ashley-Cooper and Speight (averaged nine metres in 2014) were at the bottom. I think it’s key to note that Ashley-Cooper has been playing outside centre and his counterpart Tevita Kuridrani only made an average of 3.8 metres
Tackling
87% – Rob Horne
86% – James O’Connor
77% – Henry Speight
81% – Adam Ashley-Cooper
77% – Joe Tomane
76% – Taqele Naiyaravoro
70% – Nick Cummins
No surprise with Horne but I must say James O’Connor certainly has. As for Honey Badger all I can say is c’mon mate, your tackling like a one-armed butcher in Baghdad!
Now for my favourite stat, it’s what I like to call the beast factor. Beast factor is the ability to make something a little bit special happen and to create an opportunity out of nothing. It is comprised the players’ offloads, clean breaks and most importantly players beaten. I have added all of this up and divided it by the amount of runs.
Beast factor
79% – Taqele Naiyaravoro
66% – Joe Tomane
61% – Rob Horne
51% – Henry Speight
47% – James O’Connor
42% – Nick Cummins
34% – Adam Ashley-Cooper
There is no surprises with Naiyaravoro having the most amount of beast factor and as Cheika has stated he is a “profile” we haven’t had in a while and debatably ever.
Now I know that I just gave you guys a lot of stats and lists to digest and possibly made it even harder to decide my original question, who should be the starting wingers to win the World Cup?
To simplify and collate all those numbers I have assigned a points system, for every ranking in each category I have assigned a point value. If you top the list you are allocated seven points all the way to last, which is allocated one point.
Totals
17 – Horne
16 – Naiyaravoro
15 – Tomane
12 – O’Connor
11 – Speight
7 – Cummins
6 – Ashley-Cooper
Overall I don’t think anyone could disagree with Horne being Australia’s most in-form winger of Super Rugby this year and the result reflects that. He would be the starting winger in my Wallaby XV.
As for Naiyaravoro, I think although he is excellent in attack he is still a bit raw and lacking a complete rugby brain, which is evident through his low tackling percentage. That’s why I would have Tomane as the other wing, keeping in mind the stats I have presented do not factor in the quarter-finals where he undoubtedly had the best game of his season.
What about Drew Mitchell? Well, he is the wild card in my deck, I simply do not know enough and have not watched enough of his games, so I am not in a position to make any judgements. The big question for myself is would you have someone like Naiyaravoro on the bench to run at tiring defence or James O’Connor to cover multiple positions and close out a tight game with his class and consistent defence?
All that matters is what Cheika thinks, but before we know the answer to that, I would like to know what everyone here reckons. Who would be your Wallabies World Cup wingers?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.