- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Another 2015 rematch is on offer on this week’s Friday night football.
When Essendon and North Melbourne played earlier in the year – Round 7 it was – I billed it as a game that could have top four implications. A lot has happened since then.
The Bombers have packed it in, sending their skipper for surgery and letting their veterans ease into the end of the year. North Melbourne are still likely finalists, but the gulf between them and the current top four grows larger by the week.
>> ROUND 16 AFL EXPERT TIPS
>> PREVIEW FOR ROUND 16
It goes without saying North have the most on the line in this one.
Before we get stuck in, how did last week’s Friday night forecast pan out?
Prediction: Richmond def. Carlton by 30 points.
Actual: Richmond def. Carlton by 30 points.
No, that is not a misprint. I’m a little offended you even asked the question. It was a dour affair, with the two putting up less points than West Coast managed in three quarters the following evening. Not a great deal to read into this one: Richmond got the win, even if it was more of a walk than a canter.
Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.
North Melbourne v Essendon
Friday, 17 July
Bouncedown: 7:50PM (EST)
Ethiad Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria
Both North Melbourne and Essendon, 2014 finalists and active free agent seekers, would be on anyone’s list of most disappointing sides this season. This is particularly true for the Dons, who’ve fallen into calculations for a top five draft pick.
Captain Jobe Watson is on ice, while veteran signings Paul Chapman and Adam Cooney have been put out to pasture. The former may not suit up again, while the latter has been valiant in a side not playing to its potential.
But they’re done for the year, so let’s save the post-mortem for October. Their Friday night opponents, North Melbourne, are still almost a lock for the eight for mine. It’s just a matter of where the Roos finish up.
It won’t be the top four, following their pumping at the hands of Gold Coast a couple of weeks’ back. Fifth is probably out of reach now, even if it’s a mathematical possibility, and so North Melbourne will have to settle for a sixth, seventh or eighth place finish.
I’ve spent quite a bit of time on North this season: talking up their off season, rating their line up forward of the ball as one of the best in the league, chastising their defence, and then throwing my hands in the air wondering where it all went wrong, all while keeping the faith that a top-four spot was attainable.
The Roos have been the fifth-most effective offensive side in 2015, recording an offensive efficiency rating of +5.1 to this point. Meanwhile, their defensive performance has improved – the hierarchy must read The Roar hey? – to -5.7 on fefensive efficiency rating.
In both cases, the issue holding them back has emerged as the midfield. North Melbourne are ranked 13th on inside 50 differential, meaning their forwards are not getting the chance to apply their well above average conversion and accuracy rates as often as others. Most of North’s midfield is having a down year compared to 2014, with Shaun Higgins perhaps the only player to lift his rating.
Nick Dal Santo’s absence for much of the year certainly hasn’t helped. The off season for North Melbourne – footy’s first real free agent experiment – looms as very interesting.
Anyway back to this game. Essendon are cooked, and have become as impotent up forward as a garden hose on a house fire. North Melbourne have the firepower to put up a big enough score for their below-average defence to match, so I’m on the Roos to the tune of 36 points.
That’s my Friday night forecast. What’s yours?