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2015 AFL season: Round 17 preview

Roar Guru
21st July, 2015
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2762 Reads

There are just seven rounds left this season and there will be a few matches that will play a key part in determining the final order of the ladder and the structure for the finals series.

The finals hopes of several teams will go on the line this weekend, while the battle for the wooden spoon will continue to heat up with the QClash in two weeks’ time set to play a huge role in who finishes last this season.

Meanwhile, the West Coast Eagles and Sydney Swans will renew hostilities in the west when they face off in the match of the round, one that could decide who finishes in the top two by the end of the first weekend of September.

Let’s now preview Round 17 in full detail.

Carlton versus Hawthorn
The round kicks off with Hawthorn looking to continue their recent red hot form when they face Carlton at Etihad Stadium on Friday night.

After a slow start to the season in which they divided their first eight games, Alastair Clarkson’s men have returned to form, with their past fortnight delivering wins by 72 and 89 points over Fremantle and the Sydney Swans respectively.

The romp over the Swans saw Jarryd Roughead kick five goals in his return from a cancer scare, and that will give former teammate and Carlton caretaker coach John Barker a lot to think about as his Blues attempt to plot the Hawks’ downfall.

The Blues had lifted in the past few weeks following the sacking of Mick Malthouse after Round 8, but fell back to their old habits in a 42-point loss to Fremantle in Perth last Saturday night.

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They will have to be much better if they are to break an eleven-game losing streak against the Hawks which dates back to Round 17, 2005. The club’s number one draft pick that year, Marc Murphy, will bring up his 200th game on Friday night.

As much as the Blues would love to win this match for him, ultimately Hawthorn’s recent impressive form should see them take the points in this one.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 50 points.

GWS Giants versus Geelong Cats
After Shane Mumford, Phil Davis and Joel Patfull went down with serious injuries against Collingwood in Round 11, many were prepared to write off the GWS Giants’ chances of reaching the finals for the first time in their short history.

However, the club has not only bounced back from three straight losses to win their last two, they have also proven everyone wrong by being able to cover for their losses in the ruck and defence department.

Currently with a 9-6 win-loss record, Leon Cameron’s men can take another step towards September by breaking more new ground on Saturday with a win over the Geelong Cats, a side they traditionally always play their best football against.

The Cats are coming off an unconvincing eight-point win over the Western Bulldogs but look increasingly unlikely to play finals this year, their overall form this season suggesting that they are on the decline after nearly a decade of sustained success.

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Thus, Chris Scott’s men will head into the match in Canberra as underdogs but you can never count them out.

Prediction: GWS Giants by 18 points.

Adelaide Crows versus Gold Coast Suns
Back in the eight for the first time since their coach Phil Walsh’s tragic passing, the Adelaide Crows will continue their bid to reach the finals for the first time since 2012 when they welcome the Gold Coast Suns to the Adelaide Oval.

The Crows produced a performance that Walsh would have been proud of when they narrowly defeated Port Adelaide by three points in the Showdown last week, despite enduring a goalless final quarter.

The fighting spirit they showed against the Power was also there when they lost to the West Coast Eagles by 56 points, and must be displayed again against a Gold Coast side which seems destined to take out this year’s wooden spoon.

Despite the best efforts of Gary Ablett Jr, a poor first quarter conspired against the Suns as they crashed to a 15-point loss to the GWS Giants at home last week.

It continued what has been a season from hell for the club, with first-year coach Rodney Eade having to throw a lot of youngsters into the deep end with injuries and untimely suspensions to key players plaguing his first season at Metricon Stadium.

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The least he can hope for is a competitive performance from the Suns, but it won’t be enough to overcome the Crows who will be playing their first official home match since their coach’s passing earlier this month.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 35 points.

Richmond versus Fremantle
On the back of eight wins in their last nine matches, Richmond will enter their twilight match against Fremantle with the chance to complete the season double over the Dockers, having defeated them by 27 points in Perth in Round 10.

The Tigers set up that win with a stunning eight-goal opening quarter, something that other teams rarely do against the Ross Lyon-coached Dockers, before keeping its foot on the pedal for its most impressive win this season.

Whether they can do that again, this time at the MCG, remains an interesting question. While Damien Hardwick’s men banked the points against St Kilda as expected last week, it endured a goalless final quarter while at the same time conceding six goals to the Saints.

By contrast, the Dockers kept the Blues scoreless in the final quarter of its 42-point win, dispelling the scars caused from their twelve-goal loss to Hawthorn the previous week.

While the Dockers remain on top of the ladder with 14 wins and two losses for the year, I think that Richmond, with the form they have showed in the last ten weeks, can complete the double over the Dockers this season.

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Prediction: Richmond by 22 points.

Essendon versus Port Adelaide
The first instalment of the ‘Paddy Ryder Cup’ will see the finals hopes of Essendon and Port Adelaide go on the line at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night.

Both James Hird and Ken Hinkley are currently enduring their worst seasons since being appointed head coaches of their respective clubs in 2011 and 2013, with the Bombers currently sitting in 14th place on the ladder while the Power are two places ahead in 12th.

Hird’s future has become a huge talking point over the last few weeks and it only escalated when the club lost to St Kilda by 110 points earlier this month, while the Power appear to have gone from the hunter to the hunted in the space of a year.

Both sides were wasteful in their respective losses to North Melbourne and the Adelaide Crows last week, and there will be nothing but pride on the line when they two clubs face off on Saturday night.

Adding spice to the occasion, though, is that Paddy Ryder will come up against his old club for the first time since leaving Windy Hill at the end of last season. He was supposed to be the final piece in the Power’s premiership puzzle, but has struggled for most of his first season at Alberton.

The Power will be hoping that he will provide an impact as the club attempts to end a five-game losing streak against the Bombers which dates back to late-2011. However, the Bombers’ home ground advantage should get them home in this one.

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Prediction: Essendon by ten points.

Brisbane Lions versus North Melbourne
North Melbourne legend Brent Harvey will become just the fourth man in VFL/AFL history, and the second this season after Dustin Fletcher, to enter the 400 club when the Kangaroos face the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba on Saturday night.

Following a disastrous loss to the Gold Coast Suns in their last trip to the Sunshine State, the Roos rebounded well in the last fortnight to defeat the Geelong Cats and Essendon, reviving their finals hopes in the process.

But if Brad Scott’s men are to ensure that the Brent Harvey milestone goes down as one to remember, then the Kangaroos will have to defy a very poor record at the Gabba where they have not won since 2005.

Despite the Brisbane Lions’ woes in recent years, they have always seemed to lift when they play the Roos at home, none more so than last year when they overcame a poor opening quarter to win by four points in Round 15 last season, and when they won their first match of season 2011 against that club in Round 9.

And while Justin Leppitsch’s troops will be out to notch just their third win of the season and spoil Brent Harvey’s milestone night in the process, the Roos will be out not to repeat the mistakes of their last six trips to the Sunshine capital, all of which resulted in losses, and keep their finals hopes alive for as long as possible.

Prediction: North Melbourne by 18 points.

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Western Bulldogs versus Collingwood
After shooting to an 8-3 win-loss record prior to their Round 12 bye, the last month has delivered nothing but frustration for Collingwood, who suffered a fourth straight loss for the first time in a decade when they went down to the West Coast Eagles at home last week.

That has seen them drop out of the top eight after having been nestled inside the top four at the midway point of the season, but the losing streak wasn’t really that bad.

They ran Fremantle to within seven points in the west, lost to Hawthorn by just ten at the MCG and were pipped by Port in Adelaide by three points prior to the five-goal loss to the Eagles.

This Sunday they come up against a Western Bulldogs side which entered this season rejuvenated following arguably their most tumultuous season since they won the wooden spoon in 2003.

They’ll have to face Luke Beveridge’s pups without key forward Travis Cloke, who was subbed out of the game against the Eagles early due to a calf injury which is expected to rule him out for at least a fortnight.

The Bulldogs suffered their first loss since their Round 11 bye last week when it went down to the Geelong Cats at the Cattery by eight points, but have otherwise exceeded expectations this season under new coach Beveridge.

A finals berth is within reach for the Western Bulldogs, and they can take another step towards their first September qualification since 2010 with a win over the Pies, which they did achieve in the corresponding match last season by eight points.

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Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 14 points.

Melbourne versus St Kilda
In whatever way you look at it, both of last year’s two worst-performed sides have improved somewhat this season, with five wins each for the season surpassing their season totals last year (four each for the Dees and Saints in 2014).

The Dees surpassed four wins in a single season for the first time since 2011 when it defeated the Brisbane Lions by 24 points last Sunday, a strong first half and Jesse Hogan’s four goals being the catalyst.

Hogan has emerged as the forward Melbourne had been crying out for since David Neitz’s retirement in 2008, and with Tom McDonald playing superbly in defence all year, the future is starting to look bright for the success-starved club.

If they are to defeat St Kilda on Sunday, they’ll have to defy a poor recent record against them to do so. The Dees have lost their last eleven against the Saints dating back to 2007, with the most recent loss being a two-point heartbreaker at Etihad Stadium in Round 11.

The Saints have lost their last two since demolishing Essendon by 110 points in Round 14, but they can take solace from a strong final quarter against Richmond last week in which they kicked six goals to nothing to prevent an ugly defeat.

A sixth win of the season is at stake for either club this Sunday afternoon. For the Dees, this is their biggest chance in a while to win back-to-back matches for the first time in over four seasons, while for the Saints, a win will prove that they are on the right track in their rebuilding process.

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Prediction: St Kilda by six points.

West Coast Eagles versus Sydney Swans
A decade removed the classic rivalry that saw the West Coast Eagles and Sydney Swans share a premiership each in 2005 and 2006, the two top-four teams will renew hostilities in the west in the match of the round.

The Sydney Swans are still counting the cost of their horrific 89-point loss to Hawthorn, with Ted Richards, Kurt Tippett and Craig Bird all to miss the trip west due to suspension and injuries respectively.

Richards’ absence is a costly blow to the Swans’ chances of containing Josh J. Kennedy, whose 53 goals to date this season has him on track to become just the second Eagle after Scott Cummings in 1999 to win the Coleman Medal.

Adam Simpson’s men have exceeded all expectations in 2015, flying to second on the ladder with 12 wins and just three losses so far this season. Not only are they on the verge of reaching the finals for the first time in three seasons, they are also in the driver’s seat to secure their first double chance since 2011.

However, one thing stands in their way, and that’s their recent poor record against the Sydney Swans. The Eagles haven’t beaten the Swans in the post Judd-Cousins era, with their last eight losses coming by an average of 31.3 points.

One of those losses came in the corresponding match three years ago when the Eagles, second behind the Swans on the ladder, copped a 52-point loss at home; it was that loss which exposed the club as pretenders and ultimately set the Swans up for the premiership glory they would bask in two-and-a-half months later.

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But with the home ground advantage, and the fact that the Swans could still be psychologically scarred by last week’s humiliation at the hands of the Hawks, this could be the Eagles’ best chance yet to finally break their Sydney curse.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 45 points.

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