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With three matches to go until the Rugby World Cup, I really wouldn’t mind the All Blacks dropping a game.
It is not for pragmatic reasons like “you learn more from a loss than win,” but rather the simple matter of winning streaks.
The All Blacks are currently on a seven-match winning streak dating back to the Suncorp Test last year. If they win their remaining warm-up games, they’ll be on a ten match winning streak.
In order to win the World Cup, realistically they have to win seven Tests in a row given that no side that’s dropped a pool game has ever won the Cup.
Now maths was never my strong point, but by my calculation 7 + 3 = 10 + 7 = 17.
So, if they manage all that they’ll have re-tied the record for most consecutive Test victories.
We all remember the All Blacks crawling to 17 Test victories after almost blowing the perfect season against Ireland, and the draw against Australia in Sydney last year to thwart an 18th victory is also fresh in the memory, but there have been other winning streaks in recent times that came short of 17 wins.
From 2005 to 2006, the All Blacks won 15 Tests in a row before a bridge too far at Rustenburg.
From 2009 to 2010, the All Blacks again rattled off 15 wins in a row before the famous Bledisloe Test in Hong Kong.
And they went one better from 2011 to 2012 with a 16-match winning streak that began at the World Cup and ended with a draw in Brisbane.
Judging by past results, it’s difficult to sustain a winning streak past the 16th match, which in World Cup terms would be the final.
There should be a caveat added that in the four winning streaks mentioned above, the All Blacks had to play a full Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship tournament; a far more difficult proposition than this year’s truncated warm-up tournament.
But let’s take a look at how many consecutive matches other World Cup winning sides won up to, and including, the final:
Year World Cup winner (streak)
1987 New Zealand (6)
1991 Australia (6)
1995 South Africa (11)
1999 Australia (7)
2003 England (8)
2007 South Africa (9)
2011 New Zealand (7)
Obviously, this is just pure numbers and doesn’t take into account the quality of the opposition, particularly in regard to some of the World Cup warm-up games, but more often than not, the eventual champion has lost their last competitive game in the lead-up and then gone undefeated in the tournament.
Perhaps the most relevant example from the above is England in 2003. They were on a 14-Test winning streak from 2002 to 2003 when they lost a warm-up game to France in Marseille. Had they won that game, they would have easily broken the record for most consecutive Test victories. As it was, they crawled over the line at the Rugby World Cup despite being the best team in the two years prior.
Even South Africa’s 11-match winning streak in 1995 is somewhat padded by a tour to South Africa in 1994 by Argentina, a two-Test end of year tour to the Northern Hemisphere, and a warm-up game against Samoa at Ellis Park.
I’d like to see the All Blacks win their final warm-up game at Eden Park against the Wallabies in order to secure the Bledisloe Cup, but despite how bullish the New Zealand rugby press have been of late about sending a message to our rivals with wins at Ellis Park and Sydney, resetting the winning streak at Eden Park would remove that pressure of having to maintain a winning streak and freshen us up for the Cup.
And it seems likely to happen anyway given how much Hansen is rotating his side. So, let’s go ahead and drop a game.
I’m sure supporters of both the Wallabies and the Springboks will be happy for their teams to oblige.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.