- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
After looking at the first two pools, it’s time to examine Pools C and D to make predictions that will come back to haunt me after the World Cup is completed.
Pool C: Trying to disrupt the pecking order
We come to perhaps the most predictable of the four pools. Anything other than New Zealand and Argentina qualifying in that order would have to be considered a significant upset. Both Tonga and Georgia will be looking to upset this status quo, while keeping an eye on each other.
Like their South African rivals in Pool B, the All Blacks should top this pool. While Argentina is a tougher obstacle than either Scotland or Samoa, a win for the Pumas would be their first over the men in black. Based on current form, the match on 20 September should run according to script.
What will be more interesting for New Zealand will be sorting out their best team.
Despite having the best depth of the competing nations and a ridiculous record over the past four years, it seems as though there are still a few positions where the best player has not been determined. Key amongst them is the competition for 10. Carter would have the inside running, based on experience and his goal kicking, but then whom?
It will be critical for Steve Hansen to work out a pecking order before the knockout stages, where the boot of the goal-kicker becomes the key to success.
Argentina have had a tough time in the Rugby Championship thus far, which has led some to suggest that their quarter-final spot could be claimed by Tonga or even Georgia. I personally doubt this. While Argentina have had problems competing with the other Southern Hemisphere powers at times, I doubt that either Tonga or Georgia would have done better in their place. Those questioning Argentina’s depth should also look to see how the replacements from the other two nations fare.
A quarter-final against France or Ireland is the most likely outcome for Argentina, which as far as outcomes go is not a terrible one.
The early clash between Tonga and Georgia on 19 September has the potential to be one of the highlights of the pool stage. The winner will almost certainly get an automatic spot at the 2019 Cup, while also getting a crack at Argentina for a quarter-final spot. Both teams have histories of flashy results without quite doing enough to progress beyond what they were expected to do. And both teams have a highly physical style of play that could result in some fireworks.
If pushed for a winner, I would pick Tonga. I feel as though their tougher build-up in the Pacific Nations Cup may prove to give them a slight edge. Georgia, however, will certainly be looking to prove that they can be considered on a level with Scotland and Italy, and not Romania and Russia. Third place in the pool would go a long way to demonstrating this.
Namibia have never won a World Cup game. Namibia have never looked like they might win a World Cup game. While individual players have impressed in the past (think Jacques Burger) the team as a whole has not fared well. With their weakest opponents being Georgia, I don’t see that changing.
My prediction: New Zealand and Argentina to qualify.
Pool D: Two, Italy, and two more
This pool is defined by the clashes at the top and bottom. France and Ireland will be battling it out to determine who gets the easiest path through the playoffs, Romania and Canada will be battling it out to avoid this pool’s wooden spoon and poor old Italy will be stuck in the middle.
The two qualifiers from this pool seem to be fairly obvious. Both Ireland and France should be far too strong for any of the other teams to stop. However, there will be a lot of interest in their clash on 11 October, where the top-place will most likely be decided. The winner gets a game against Argentina, with a semi-final against the top qualifier from Pool A. The loser gets a match-up against the All Blacks, with South Africa potentially looming should they survive that.
Ireland will fancy themselves to take this spot, and are already being talked up as contenders for the overall competition. Given their innovative play and stellar results against teams from both sides of the globe, it isn’t hard to see why. However, they also have a history of stage-fright when it comes to elimination rounds, and have the least depth of the major nations. If any key players, such as Paul O’Connell or Conor Murray are injured in their clash with Italy a week prior, their hopes could take a sharp nose-dive.
France, by contrast, give the impression that they are ill-prepared for the Cup. Their recent results are less than flattering, there appears to be some strange management occurring at the administrative level, and the coach knows that he will not be continuing after France’s campaign is over. Observers of history will note that France has performed well in past cups with some or all of these factors at play.
It would also be extremely typical of them to lose hopelessly to Ireland, only to bounce back against the All Blacks in their quarter-final. As a Kiwi, this prospect fills me with dread. The fact that they will play this quarter-final at Millennium Stadium does not help in the slightest. Moving on…
Italy have a long history of saving their most mediocre play for the World Cup, and I see no reason why this tradition should not continue. While the Azzurri should account for both Canada and Romania with varying levels of ease, topping one of France or Ireland is a different kettle of fish.
The Italians have shown in past Six Nations that they are theoretically capable of doing this, but certainly not consistently. Will this be the year? With both teams eyeing the Italians as the only other major obstacle, probably not. Italy should continue to lounge in the middle of the table, picking up a qualification for the next cup without looking like achieving something more.
This leaves us with the bottom two. The clash between Canada and Romania on 6 October should be one of the more intriguing of the pool stages. While there is less to play for, both teams will be keen to pick up one win from this edition, and both will be eyeing the other as the most probable candidate. Canada will be keen to gain from increased visits from the top tier to the Americas, while Romania will want to establish themselves in an increasingly competitive European arena. Expect an excellent match.
My prediction: Ireland and France to qualify, in that order.
General things to watch and think about
The lineouts and mauls: If this year’s Super Rugby season taught us anything, it is that the rolling maul is as viable a weapon as any. However, there has also been a fair share of critics pointing out that offenses from the attacking team are penalised far less than those of the defence. World Rugby are highly unlikely to change any rules or rule interpretations this close to the World Cup, so it looks as though this may be a feature of the tournament.
Expect howls of anger if a major team is beaten due to some controversial maul tries. Australia, facing off against the English and Welsh packs, should be especially wary. Also expect to see some unorthodox tactics against the lineout. Ireland popularised the non-engage technique that has made its way onto a number of teams’ repertoires, but I would not be surprised to learn that other coaches have some crafty moves up their sleeves. Watch this space.
The role of the television: The TMO is having an increased amount of work to do in a rugby match. Referees are happier to refer something upstairs, and for more reasons than the grounding, than in the past. The relationship between these two officials is one that can vary from game to game, and, due to the fact that many of these calls are controversial by their very nature, this may be an area that is ironed out after the tournament.
A further and less pleasant development has occurred in recent years, that of replays at the ground influencing a referee’s decision after the incident has happened. Steve Hansen has complained about this in the past, and while it is easy to write his motives off as self-serving, I imagine supporters will be much less amused if this form of home advantage rears its head at any time during the Cup. Claims that this is only increasing the accuracy of the calls ring hollow when only the away team is scrutinised in this fashion.
The growth of the game: One of the stated goals of World Rugby is to turn the sport into one that is truly global. Since the World Cup is their centrepiece tournament, it seems a good time to examine how progress towards this vision is going.
On the face of it, results seem positive. This World Cup looks to be the most open and competitive yet. The minnow nations are improving, particularly the European and American ones and on the whole, results are becoming much closer. While it is presumptuous to say that this will continue to occur at this edition, it certainly seems more likely.
Underneath the surface, however, things are not quite so rosy. There have only been 12 quarter finalists in the competition’s history, and it is unlikely that any more will be added this year. In addition, most of the teams competing this year are regulars at this tournament, which leads me to the biggest issue with the growth of the game.
There seems to be little way that a genuinely new nation could qualify for the World Cup. Europe is the most likely source for such a new team, with a decent second-tier developing, but it is difficult to see a new challenger from the Americas. Africa might throw up a new team, but it is hard to argue that this team would fare any better than Namibia have to date.
But the biggest concern for World Rugby has to be the Asian arena. With Japan hosting and thus automatically qualifying for the next event, the Asia 1 spot in the 2019 Cup is wide open. Unfortunately, despite underperforming in the finals, Japan has proven vastly superior to any Asian competitor, leaving the very real fear that whoever qualifies will be on a hiding to nothing in every game they play.
World Rugby has done an excellent job of building a second tier of nations, but it is now apparent that a large number of them face little competition for qualifying for the World Cup. This needs to be addressed.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.