197 games down, nine to go. The AFL season has had its fair share of storylines in 2015, from the outright tragic to the uplifting and inspirational. Ten clubs are in off-season mode, and the trade rumour mill is already into fifth gear.

There’s lots to get through, and what’s presented below is not intended to be a comprehensive preview.

Rather, it’s a look at what I think the overarching themes of the post season will look like in season 2015. The match previews themselves will begin to flow towards the end of this week.

All roads go west
This post season, more than any other in recent memory, is going to be darn difficult to predict. The spectre of two Western Australian teams in pole position has meant the prospective grand finalists are going to have to win in the west.

This is something that has proven very difficult to achieve this year; interstate teams are a combined 2-18 in 2015, with a percentage of 57.9 per cent over the course of the season. Restrict that to top eight teams and it’s slightly better: 2-5 and a percentage of 68.9 per cent.

Just as a frame of reference, if you were to extend that out to a full season, the Western Australian teams have turned the top eight into a bottom four side.

It makes Port Adelaide’s victory over Hawthorn in Round 21, or indeed any of Hawthorn’s four losses by less than 12 points, ever so important in the context of their charge to a third straight flag.

The Hawks would have ended up in second spot if, for example, Isaac Smith had put the ball to his boot half a second sooner; or if regular dead-eyes Jack Gunston and Luke Breust had kicked truly in the final minute of their 10 point loss to Greater Western Sydney. Now the Hawks have to win in Perth at least once, against either West Coast or Fremantle, to make it back home in the first week of October.

Their premiership favouritism in the eyes of the market is a little perplexing through that lens. Money in the bank, I guess.

Although, they are very clearly the best team if you isolate their output from whom and where they will have to play their next three or four games. Hawthorn recorded a regular season percentage of 158.4 per cent, which is the highest single season mark since Collingwood set the all-time mark of 167.7 per cent in 2011. Hawthorn came out on top of both Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) and Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) for the year as a whole, putting up a +28.6 on OER and +18.8 on DER.

Go West! (Photo: AFL Media)

Yes, you are correct, that means Hawthorn ended up beating Fremantle on the defensive league tables – aided in no small part by the white flag flown by the Dockers in Round 23. Prior to that, Fremantle were still leading the way.

Speaking of the Dockers, they have dropped well out of the top eight on OER in recent weeks, finishing the year with an OER of -2.6, ranked 12th. That puts Fremantle significantly behind the eight ball relative to their opponents, who enter the finals with OERs ranging from first (Hawthorn) through to 10th (Richmond).

We’ll get to Fremantle and Richmond later. The league’s six best offensive sides have ended up making it to September, with the three clear standouts being Hawthorn, West Coast and Adelaide, who all managed to put up 100 points a game on average throughout the year.

It’s a somewhat arbitrary line, I know, but in a season where everyone was worried about scoring continuing its torturous decline (PPG actually ticked up 0.02 points in 2015!), perhaps it’s a sign that the league’s brightest minds are turning their right brains towards facilitating bigger scores for themselves rather than lower scores for their opponents. The top eight as a unit scored 96.3 points per game, up from 94.1 in 2014.

Offence matters, and with five teams that have recently shown they can put the hammer down on a moment’s notice facing off, well, could we see one of the teams outside of the top four give the finals a real shake in 2015?

Would you prefer to fight a shark, or a grizzly bear?
Last season, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne made it to preliminary finals, beating the third and fourth-placed Fremantle and Geelong respectively during semi final week. Fremantle’s defence ended the year in the hospital ward, and meant they just never got things on their own terms; Geelong, on the other hand, were fundamentally not a top four team last season. This year’s top four has similar features.

Sydney are entering the race home absent two of their prime movers in Kieran Jack and Luke Parker, while their back six is falling to pieces. Their best player, Lance Franklin, is on a leave of absence, and their final few rounds have been against the most powderpuff draw in the league.

Meanwhile, we’re all giving Fremantle the benefit of the doubt. I’m of a mind to toss aside the Dockers’ final four or five weeks of the regular season, given they essentially locked up a top two spot after Round 18 and turned their attention to 12 September.

It makes a numerical analysis a little futile, particularly on the scoring end, given the Dockers’ first choice forward line barely played over that stretch.

But there’s no doubt question marks loom wherever you wish to prod at Fremantle. And that means they could be ripe for the picking if things don’t quite go to plan in week one.

When it comes to the bottom four, it’s fair to say that one side of the draw looms as a little tougher than the other – although in reality it’s like picking between facing off with a grizzly bear or a shark in a fight to the death.

The winner of the Tankapalooza II gets to travel to Perth or Sydney in week two, Perth or Melbourne in week three to face either West Coast or Hawthorn in a preliminary final, and the victor of the bottom half of the finals draw in the grand final. That’s the shark route.

The Doggies-Crows victor will face Hawthorn at the MCG, or West Coast at Subiaco in week two, and then have to fly to Sydney to face the Swans, or Perth to face the Dockers in week three, before then facing the winner of the Hawthorn-West Coast qualifying final.

That’s the grizzly bear route, particularly for Adelaide, who would be faced with four games in up to three states, none of which are their own.

Neither is particularly easy – that’s how the system is designed – but if you had to pick one route it would probably be Shark. Having to play two out of Fremantle, West Coast and Hawthorn is essentially a disaster, with the route to a preliminary final most likely through a weakened Sydney outfit. In that respect, Sunday’s game between the Tigers and ‘Roos may give rise to this year’s lower half final four participant.

Fifth vs eighth is an intriguing game, for a change
The Sunday afternoon elimination final slot has delivered some truly terrible games of football in recent years. I don’t think it’s anything to do with the timeslot in particular; I do think it has everything to do with the gulf that has existed between the fifth and eighth placed finishers.

In 2012, it was the leaky sieve known as North Melbourne against a plucky West Coast Eagles outfit that had spent much of the year in the top four. West Coast mushed the ‘Roos by 96 points, scoring 162 off their own bat.

In 2013, Richmond, carrying a weight of fan expectation built up over 30 years of veritable finals absenteeism, faced off against the ninth placed Carlton, who had no idea they were in contention until literally the week prior. Richmond lost. And in 2014, it took an unprecedented run just to get into the eight for the Tigers, who were then dispatched by Port Adelaide to the tune of 57 points.

The Tigers take on the Roos (Photo: Darrian Traynor/AFL Media)

This time is different. North Melbourne finished in eighth place by choice, having given up a chance of hosting a home final by laying down against the Tigers last Friday night. While it was a narrow chance – they needed Brisbane to take care of the Lions, and to have a large win – one part of the equation came true. The ‘Roos were one of the faster finishing sides in the competition, and if it weren’t for a couple of the early season games they mailed in, North Melbourne would have probably made it into the top four.

Meanwhile, Richmond continue their slow build to a very high plateau, and also had genuine claims on a top-four spot for much of the second half. They did, in fact, finish in the top four on Pythagorean expected wins. And yet, they still haven’t won a final in goodness knows how long.

Two Melbourne sides, at the home of football, on a Sunday afternoon in September. It’s the recipe for a classic, and I’m sure the 90-odd thousand attendees will be in for a treat.

The Roos will be a part of a classic. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media)

Friday’s match is the most important of the finals series
It sounds silly to say, but this Friday night’s game between West Coast and Hawthorn could be the pivot point that a Hawthorn three-peat turns on. Just think about it for a minute.

A West Coast victory condemns the Hawks to a semi-final against Adelaide or the Dogs, both of whom gave the Hawks trouble earlier in the year, and then a likely return trip to Perth for a preliminary final against the Dockers. And if they get through that, a return leg against a fresh West Coast would be between them and a third flag.

But if they win, Hawthorn get a week off, and then either play the Swans (27/09/2014) or one of Richmond or North Melbourne at the MCG. Then in the grand final, they would likely face a return leg against West Coast, whom they would have beaten twice in 2015, or Fremantle (28/09/2013).

Again, which path would you rather take?

It’s the same for West Coast. A win gives them a rolled gold path to the first Saturday in October, against either Hawthorn or Fremantle all things being equal, while a loss would see them play host to either Adelaide (who just beat the crap out of them) or the Western Bulldogs (who they may prefer) in week two, and then Fremantle and Hawthorn in weeks three and four.

In a lot of ways, the stakes of this game are incredibly similar to what both sides faced when they played in Round 19. I’ll leave some detailed remarks on this game for Friday, but the tone of the entire finals series will be set by the very first game, and both sides will have to throw everything they’ve got at it, in full knowledge that their opponent will be doing the same.

Luke Hodge of the Hawks (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media)

Sydney. Sydney, Sydney, Sydney
What to make of the Sydney Swans’ chances this September? They seem to have been collectively written off, not unlike a banged up Fremantle in 2014.

The knockers have been knocking since late July, where it became apparent that Sydney were seeking to shed their primordial, defensive shell through the middle of the ground and adopt a much more attacking mode, to better capitalise on their forward line investments. Any good evolution takes time, and Sydney haven’t quite reached Charizard stage yet.

It shows. Sydney have the poorest record on the top four ladder, with a single win in four outings and a percentage of 61.5 per cent. Their lone victory came against Hawthorn at the MCG in Round 8, which the Hawks followed up with a nine week, nine victory, 200 per cent stretch. Fair to say they caught Hawthorn at the right time.

It’s not that, though. It’s the injuries. Luke Parker is an important attacking option in the forward half, winning more than five clearances and hitting the scoreboard almost twice per game. Crucially, he’s the only Swans midfielder that looked like getting close to a goal a game this year.

Kieran Jack’s absence is more likely to be felt, though, given his role at stoppages. Where Josh Kennedy is the gatherer, Jack is the hunter, stopping his opponents from making a clean getaway and being ready to strike should the ball fall Sydney’s way.

The Swans have what looms as the toughest draw of the four, too, with their first round match up against Fremantle either followed by a week off and then Hawthorn or West Coast in a preliminary final (to both whom they have lost by around 10 goals in their most recent match ups), or a week two match up with Richmond or North Melbourne, only for that to be followed up by either another trip to Perth or a showdown with Hawthorn at the MCG. And that only gets them to the grand final.

But you know, Kurt Tippett has been proving why he’s Sydney’s most valuable player in recent weeks, with bags of five, three and two goals to go with 20, 15 and 15 hit outs and a number of clearances off of his own bat. The loss of Lance Franklin for an unknown period of time puts the spotlight firmly on Tippett forward of the ball; and on Sam Reid, who is a better key forwards than his reputation commands.

It’s not likely, but there’s certainly a chance. You don’t become a 16 win team with a percentage of 127.1 per cent by being terrible at football after all.

Kurt Tippett. What a man (Photo: Michael Willson/AFL Media)

Worst, minor premier, ever?
Fremantle finished off the year (excluding their last round tank) with a record of 2-2, and a percentage of 118 per cent. Would you believe that’s better than West Coast (2-2 with 108 per cent)? Admittedly, Fremantle played a significantly softer draw than their cross-town rival, but let’s get one thing straight: The Dockers are a genuine premiership threat.

Between Round 1 and Round 9, the Dockers were easily the league’s most dominant side, putting up 94 points per game and conceding just 62 (That’s almost 15 points a quarter). Their game plan was built on territory, precision kicking, and a balls-to-the-wall counter attack game. At that stage, it looked like Lyon had finally thrown off the defensive shackles and allowed his team to play with more flair and dare.

Lyon’s coaching instinct is to say I don’t need to score heavily to win, because I know that my defensive set up will hold the opponent to a reasonably low score. Smart coaching by Damien Hardwick bought that all undone.

In Round 10, the Tigers smacked Fremantle in the first quarter by seeking to blow them off the park right from the get go, and forcing the Dockers to try and go with them. While some part of the success of this was luck – in watching that Game 1 remember the ball seemed to bounce Richmond’s way each and every time – it took real dare for a coach to stare down what was the most dominant team in the league at the time and throw down.

It was the path to success for a time: Fremantle were +18 on the scoreboard in their first nine rounds at the first change (winning seven out of nine first quarters); between Round 10 and 18, they were down an average of 2.5 points (winning just one first quarter). But since Round 18, their first quarter potency has returned somewhat: Fremantle have scored 30 points to 16 on average in first quarters.

Some call it The Blast. I just call it playing to your strengths If you know you have a very strong defence, it makes sense to try and built a lead as early as possible, and then hold on to it for the remainder of the game. For a time, Fremantle had lost the edge they had created for themselves, but now it’s back. And that’s one reason that I’m quietly confident they’re on the path to success this post season.

The most pertinent bit, though, is their path to the grand final. A victory against Sydney, which you would peg as likely, would see them have another week off before facing either a well-travelled Hawthorn or West Coast in a preliminary final. By that time, a number of their key players will be so fresh they’ll have steam rising from their jerseys, having played essentially one full game in the previous month.

I have always given Lyon the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the form of his team. Last season, we all got sucked in by the “oh they’re just coasting” narrative, when it was very clear in the end that the side was completely obliterated come September. By the time they were eliminated, Fremantle’s key position defender stocks were all but gone, and their midfield group finished their semi final game against Port Adelaide jogging on the spot.

Nat Fyfe is the best in the game (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media)

This season, the goal seems to have been get to the top two, and then ease right back. As above, Fremantle were essentially ensconced in the top two from Round 18 onwards. But even though that looks to have been the goal, they still managed to put wins on the board, last weekend’s travesty not withstanding.

Just consider this for a moment. For this weekend, Fremantle will bring in: Lee Spurr , Stephen Hill , Jonathon Griffin,  Cameron Sutcliffe, Danyle Pearce , Michael Johnson , Aaron Sandilands , Luke McPharlin , Matthew Pavlich , Chris Mayne , Zac Dawson, David Mundy, Hayden Ballantyne and Michael Walters. These players will all have had varying degrees of rest and relaxation in recent weeks, and should be cherry ripe to go at the Swans.

There’s one player missing from that list: Nat Fyfe. The local mail is that he is likely to benefit from an extra week off, and that given Fremantle are expected to deal with Sydney with a relative ease (although as above, should the forward line fire things could flip) it’s better to give him an extra two weeks.

That would make it two games since Round 17 for Fyfe, coming into a preliminary final against either their Victorian arch nemesis or their local arch nemesis. He is a champion – will probably win the Brownlow in half a season, although that one got a little bit complicated in the final rounds of the year – but even champions would struggle in that scenario. His availability looms as critical for the Dockers’ preliminary and grand final prospects.

Adelaide could shake things up
Who has the best percentage over the past four rounds (excluding Tank Round)? It’s not Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle or Sydney.

It is, in fact, the Adelaide Crows, who have taken a baseball bat to their opposition in the final rounds of the year. The Crows are the clear heir to Hawthorn’s sharknado offence throne, possessing the sort of flexibility and adaptability forward of the ball that has become so critical to success.

Their midfield has got the chops to take them far, too, although their medium term prospects rest squarely on the retention of one player in particular. The one knock is their defence, which didn’t crack the top 10 once the season proper finished up.

But the funny thing about Adelaide is they either concede huge scores (eight scores of 100 or more conceded in 2015) or really low scores (nine scores of less than 70 points conceded). It suggests the back six are still young, and prone to off days.

But like Sydney, all it will take is for things to click at the right time for the Crows, and they could make some noise. The complicating factor is the seventh placed finish means they will be travelling across the breadth of the country during the post season – although this team of all knows what it is to be resilient.

Right now, they look to me to be the one team from outside of the top four that could make a run to the grand final. I don’t think it will happen, but then again I didn’t think the Crows would be able to achieve what they have achieved this year given what the club has been through. It all hinges on week one, and an MCG date with the Dogs.

Can the Crows continue their recent form into the finals? (Photo: James Elsby/AFL Media)

Speaking of the Dogs…
Show me someone that predicted the Western Bulldogs would finish inside the top eight and I’ll show you a shameless, bald-faced liar.

This team was supposed to be bad; they lost their captain, coach, CEO and Brownlow medallist just over a year ago, and we were all laughing at the contract that was handed to a 19-year-old that hadn’t done anything more than put on some extra muscle.

But they’re in. And even if they lose to the Crows in week one, there can be no grade other than A+ assigned for this season.

What if they knock Adelaide off, though? And then come up against West Coast, who we will assume lose in week one, and win that one too in a stunning reversal of recent form? Finally, let’s just assume Fremantle roll over in a preliminary final, with the Dockers’ veterans disappearing into a cloud of dust at three quarter time; and the Dogs face off with Hawthorn in the first Saturday in October.

Look, just humour me for a moment.

The Hawks are battered and bruised. Luke Hodge has been suspended for the rest of the finals for pulling a knife on Sydney’s Josh Kennedy in the semi final, Luke Breust and Jack Gunston have lost any semblance of kicking form they have, Cyril has popped both his hamstrings, and Josh Gibson has been offered a contract with the Cleveland Browns.

The Dogs’ veterans, Murphy, Boyd and Morris, have kept their side in the game for three and a half quarters, and heading into stoppage time the Dogs trail by five points. The game clock ticks over 32 minutes, with the ball on the Western Bulldogs right wing and in dispute. The umpire calls for a ball up.

At the back of the swarming pack of players, Marcus Bontempelli is somehow allowed to hit the contest unchecked, and leaping into the air he plucks the ball with his monstrous right hand before David Hale and a born-again Will Minson can get near it. He throws it on to the boot off of one step, knowing full well that this kick is his team’s last shot at winning the game.

One out in the goal square are Tom Boyd and Brian Lake. Boyd slips over, and Lake takes the uncontested mark in the goal square. Siren sounds. Hawks fans are in raptures – they have won through to their fourth straight grand final, and it’s ex-Dog Lake that has saved the game.

But Lake turns around, tucks his mouthguard into his left brown and gold sock. The Hawks players, rushing from the mass of congestion around the last stoppage start to run towards him to celebrate. “That’s just Lakey being Lakey”, they think. But then Lake rips off his Hawthorn jumper, only for there to be a red, white and blue one underneath. He goes back, kicks the goal, and wins the Dogs their first premiership in 60 years.

Lake is chaired off the ground by his teammates – his old teammates – brandishing a lifetime Whitten Oval contract.

That would be a story for the ages. Like every year, history will be written over these next four weeks. And I for one am as excited as I’ve ever been for September.