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We all knew it was coming. But today, the Adelaide Crows confirmed it.
Patrick Dangerfield, the league’s youngest ever free agent, is set to exercise his free agency rights in an effort to return to his native Victoria.
Even rational analysis of his fit in a number of different settings was always pushing up hill on this one, a fact which was confirmed in Adelaide’s short statement. Dangerfield is seeking a contract in his home state for personal reasons. Good luck to him. He’s one of the best at his craft in the country, and is using his considerable talents and the mechanisms available to him to get what he wants.
But before we all jump to conclusions, it is important to remember that this is indeed the first of many steps in Dangerfield’s journey home.
First and foremost, free agency doesn’t even begin for another two and a bit weeks. The league has expressed its desire to keep the off season as the off season, and so despite all of the rumours (there seems to be an extra year added to the contract offer every day), it would be highly unusual for any club to show its hand before the grand final.
The way this all works from here is that a club can offer Dangerfield a contract, for a certain number of years and certain amount of dollars to be paid over those years. This is lodged with the AFL as a bonifide contract – no fishing allowed. Adelaide, as the holder of Dangerfield’s restricted free agency rights, can then chose whether to match that deal, or relinquish those rights and let Dangerfield sign that deal.
This is where things will potentially get interesting, for Adelaide, his potential suitors, and indeed the rest of the competition. If Adelaide decide not to match, they will receive free agent compensation, determined using a few different criteria (such as player salary, age, and the net gain/loss of talent during the particular free agency period).
Dangerfield will attract the very top free agency compensation, regardless of what else happens at Adelaide during free agency. But that would be the equivalent of a “first round pick”, which would be granted immediately after their first pick in the draft – currently pick 13.
Dangerfield for pick 14 is woefully inadequate. And so regardless of the offers lobbed by Victorian teams, Adelaide will absolutely exercise their restricted free agency rights. That means, for a few days at least, Patrick Dangerfield will remain a Crow.
It is then up to Danger. He can either accept Adelaide’s offer, or take a punt on the preseason draft. Given Carlton, a Victorian team, holds the number one pick in the preseason draft, well, at least he’d get his wish to move home.
Just kidding. That’s not going to happen.
So, then, what will occur is if Dangerfield really, really wants to move home to Victoria, Adelaide will attempt to secure a trade for him. And this, sports fans, is where things will get super interesting.
If middling key forward Lachie Henderson is supposedly worth Geelong’s first round pick, what is a 25-year-old superstar, who may just win the Brownlow medal this year, worth?
Two first round picks? Two first round picks and a player? Even more? Who really knows.
But Adelaide hold all of the cards here, and indeed sounded an ominous warning in their press release:
“We will now consider our options, however, our members and supporters should rest assured that in doing so we will make decisions and take action that is in the best interests of our football club”
Show. Me. The. Money.
It will set off a feverish trade period, as clubs across Victoria seek to acquire enough assets to facilitate the Crows letting Dangerfield slip from their grasp. What is he worth? The opportunities here are endless, and mind boggling to some degree.
As for Dangerfield’s decision to leave, well, you all know my views on this. Of all of the realistic options, Adelaide are by far the closest to having a genuine tilt at the premiership. What happened to “all I want is a shot at a flag”? Anyway, that’s another conversation for another day.
He is a generational player, someone that can truly change the direction of a team; and that means for Adelaide too. While the Crows have a very strong midfield, how much of it hinges on the constant threat of a Paddy Special clearance? Rory Sloane is an excellent player, but he’s no Sean Connery. Will he be Daniel Craig or Pierce Brosnan without Paddy around?
It will set the Crows back, of that there is no doubt. It makes their looming decision on a new head coach oh-so important, because in many ways the chosen one will be left with a terrible dilemma: persist with the current list and hope for the best, or concede that absent its central piece, some more significant changes will need to be made.
And what of his potential destinations? This comes down to what a suitor will be required to give up.
For the Cats, going all in on Dangerfield might sell tickets, but it will simply mask the more substantial problems lurking beneath the shiny new surface. Problems will be amplified if they have to sell the farm to bring him in.
For Collingwood, who, let’s not forget, have money and a very good, young midfield core, a combination of Scott Pendlebury and Dangerfield is truly terrifying. They have assets to burn, and could wheel and deal their way into contention.
Could the Hawks pinch him? Or the Tigers? Given their respective list profiles the addition of Dangerfield would shoot them into premiership contention in 2016. Or does a super-young St Kilda, or Melbourne, or even Western Bulldogs, have a go?
A journey of 1000 miles starts with the smallest step. We took that step today, but there are many more miles to come.