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It’s probably the biggest game of the Rugby World Cup so far. It’s the game that will have massive implications for its pool, and will almost certainly mean the loser won’t have to worry about hotel bookings for the week of the quarter finals.
Yes, Japan v Samoa will be E-P-I-C!
In all seriousness, there are some cracking contests looming this weekend. Scotland-South Africa on Saturday, Argentina-Tonga on Sunday, the aforementioned Japan-Samoa, and of course England-Australia.
The last game has dominated discussions around these parts of late, but like always, the Big Questions have all the big issues covered.
Q1. (from Harry Jones) “Teams relying on a last-minute maul drive to score a try are often repelled by better maul defence; usually a lanky lock able to get his arms around the caught ball, providing a more static target for defending forwards to stampede in waves, at speed. Which team has shown the best maul defensive pattern; and who has shown the quickest, legal maul transfer?”
Harry: Samoa showed what not to do at Villa Park, using the butterfly and backstroke and being carried along by the Springbok maul as if riding a whale. The USA gave the Scots fits with the old “refuse to engage” tactic.
However, that has its limits in a knockout game at 79:00 from five metres out. The problem for the ‘attacking’ team when they launch a lineout drive with a minute to go is that everyone in the stadium knows it’s coming. This provides the ‘defending’ team an opportunity to flip the narrative and put pressure on the maul from its birth.
I think all in all, Wales showed the right attitude and execution in deconstructing the English maul in the second half at Twickenham. Don’t think ‘defence’, rather think ‘attack the maul’. The attack on the maul should come at its inception.
Successfully attacking a maul is about timing and personnel. Long-armed and tall forwards choose not to compete on the throw, but instead meet the catcher immediately as he hits the ground with a smothering bear hug.
This gives other locks or tall loosies a target to swim to, using a crawl or breaststroke. If you get an Eben Etzebeth and a Lood de Jager to the mauled ball, it’s good night Irene. If the maul collapses, the ref has a tough decision. It also provides a clear target for props to hit at the right moment.
The toughest mauls to negate right now are Australia’s and South Africa’s, because they face two very good maul defenders every season in the Rugby Championship and do the transfer so quickly, with an incredibly long-armed Victor Matfield or Rob Simmons stretching the ball to sure-handed Bismarck du Plessis or David Pocock.
Diggercane: Best maul defence, has to be Wales for mine. They were outstanding against England while the quickest transfer I would give to the Wallabies, who have really being nailing down this aspect in their game into a finely tuned weapon.
With so much focus around the mauls in recent times it is not that surprising, to me anyhow, how much better many teams are now at repelling it and it has not been quite the scourge I had expected it to be (so far anyway).
Brett: I quite like what Canada have got going on, in terms of maul defence. Because they’re so chock full of sevens players, and don’t really have a lot of tall timber (lumberjack irony noted), their tactic at times has been to not contest the lineout and drop right out. Then, once the opposition has got past the point of the lineout being over, the Canucks just spear themselves in low and hard from any old direction.
Now obviously, when they’re still 0 and 2 on the Pool D standings, you have to question how effective it’s been overall, but I like their thinking; it’s still a clever piece of defensive coaching.
The LAST WORD: Harry
So, we are liking either the maniacal maul sacking approach or the standoffish ‘it ain’t a maul if we don’t play along’ approach. I suppose the key is to commit to one or the other!
Q2. (from Digger) “From the pre tournament favoured title winners, are you now prepared to cross a line through any of them as being unable to win this edition of the World Cup?”
Harry: England was listed in the top three favourites in almost every pre-tournament prediction. The Sweet Chariot scored from five metres out with a lineout maul to put themselves in pole Pool A position. Empirically, they have just as good a chance as the Welsh and Australians to qualify for the knockout rounds, but I will go ahead and cross them off, because they don’t have enough experience and poise when it counts. And they haven’t shown (at any point in 2015) an ability to deal with David Pocock on the ground, Israel Folau in the air, or the referees on the field.
If England can’t beat a decimated Wales, I don’t see them taking a very fit Wallaby squad with far more weapons. Chris Robshaw was asked by Jerome Garces ‘why are you talking to me?’ but both Dan Biggar and Sam Warburton enjoyed long affable dialogues with the referee, full of affirmation and bonhomie. This has happened to Robshaw before; Nigel Owens called him ‘Christopher’ and gave him the headmaster look once. England had to win that game.
Diggercane: Right, time to risk some egg on my face but I say England and South Africa will not win this edition.
Simply put, I do not feel England have the experience to get them through this tournament and to deal with the pressure of playing at home, while in South Africa’s case, I feel they lack the mental edge and cohesion as a unit to get them through this tournament.
While the loss to Japan could prove to be an invaluable kick in the pants, they should have had that a few weeks ago in Durban. Of course, the reverse of this could also be true, that these losses may be the catalyst for greater things, but I don’t think so.
Don’t hit me Harry…
Brett: Pre-tournament, I was angling toward New Zealand-South Africa, and Ireland-Australia semi-finals and I’ve seen nothing that diverts me from that initial thinking, albeit I did come awfully close to substituting Japan for South Africa.
So while that does mean I’m putting the line through England, Wales, and France, in truth, I’d already done that pre-tournament anyway. France are as hot-and-cold as I expected, England have had more scientific experimental iterations than even Doctor FrankenCheika’s Wallabies, and Wales at their current rate of attrition will be flat fielding a XV should they reach the quarters.
The LAST WORD: Harry
Digger, you wish and hope the Boks are crossed off. Brett, I agree that depth is going to be a real key, with over two dozen players already knocked out of the Cup. In South Africa’s always soap opera-esque rugby world, the losses may have worked out for the better, with second choices Lood de Jäger, Damian de Allende, and Schalk Burger seizing their chances.
Q3. (from Chinmay Hejmadi last Friday) “How would New Zealand be reviewing their World Cup so far? Is it a case of timing their run properly, or are they proving that playing poorly and still winning shows that spirit of champions? Or are there real weaknesses, and dare I say it, problems for the All Blacks?”
Harry: A New Zealander scaled Everest first, and Steve Hansen and Richie McCaw would like to stay on top of the rugby world. They don’t do that by being easy on themselves.
I would imagine they are being hard on themselves for these issues: their high ball woes (Julian Savea is probably catching 200 punts after each practice), a lack of fluidity when Sonny Bill Williams has not been on the pitch, less-than-ruthless finishing in the red zone (a facet of All Black play in the last four years that has been mind-boggling in its efficacy), and non-dominance at the breakdown.
The Kiwis are in great shape to defend their title; but I think they’ll defend it by being brutally honest with themselves. All Shag has to do is replay the Namibian try.
Diggercane: No, I don’t think here are serious problems although the coaches may be upset with the execution at times but opportunities are being created. I think that they will start building towards the knock-out phase with their stronger line up against Georgia and Tonga, and if they continue to execute poorly then this will cause some angst, for me anyhow.
But now is no time to start kicking the cat. What may be of concern is the goal kicking behind Dan Carter. I say this as it seems that Beaudin Barrett is the preferred option from the bench, and seems to be currently ranked as No 2 over Colin Slade. An injury to Carter could be a major concern come the knockout phases as we know how vital points from the tee usually prove to be.
Given the utility value many of the All Blacks already provide, including Barrett and Slade, it still seems an odd choice to have taken both ahead of Lima Sopoaga who is the better kicker. Hopefully a decision we will not be left ruing. It’s all very well to endeavour to score tries but pressure matches don’t always pan out that way.
Brett: I can picture Steve Hansen, Wayne Smith, and Ian Foster rocking back on their chairs in their strategy meetings, with the feet up and cigars and brandy in one hand, feeling pretty damn good about themselves.
They’ve got through their one tough pool game against Argentina unscathed, let the second-stringers loose on Namibia, and now they can just manage their way through their last two games with few worries in the world.
They’ve been far from perfect, sure, but in the grand scheme of things, style is meaningless in this tournament anyway. They’ll use the last two games to work out their preferred QF combination, and then on Shag’s signal, will unleash hell on the rest of the tournament. If I was a New Zealander, I might, perhaps, be worried it was going too well.
The LAST WORD: Harry
Shag doesn’t seem worried at all. He is texting Heyneke and tripping over McCaw on the way to the bar. Look, I was just searching for something, anything, to cling to.
BONUS POINT: Inspired by Red Kev’s impromptu recipe exchange last week, and with games on at all hours in every timezone around The Roar universe, what’s your current go-to Rugby World Cup culinary accompaniment?
Harry: Simba chips with Mrs Ball’s chutney flavour or pickled fish, and amber Namibian beer.
Digger: I am chopping and changing between Honey Roasted Peanuts or Delisio Sweet Chilli relish potato chips.
Brett: Mexicana Doritos have been the rugby staple in 2015, though I do have to do something about the sudden Little Creatures Bright Ale drought that my beer fridge is currently experiencing. Come Sunday morning, poached eggs on vegemite toast with English Breakfast tea seems appropriate.
With large side-serving of #ScrumStraightJoe…