These are are nervous times, yet I find myself excited by the prospect once more. It is a cycle I can’t break and despite watching every Rugby World Cup religiously, I have not found a solution to stop these emotions.
My name is Wal and I am a Rugby World Cup addict. I can’t stop myself, every four years the same thing happens.
The event starts and I find myself watching matches I wouldn’t normally, supporting teams I have no affiliation to, proudly supporting the All Blacks, and then marvelling at how the game continues to grow and evolve.
This World Cup is no different, but in so many ways it is. I am fortunate to have friends that support all of the nations that I believe could beat the All Blacks and knock them out of the World Cup on foreign soil: Australia, England, France, Ireland, South Africa and Wales (less so after all of their injuries).
This is why I agree with all of the former players that insist this will be the hardest World Cup to win. The difference now between these teams is the smallest I can remember since 1987.
That is exciting and fantastic for all supporters, and if the All Blacks fail to defend their title, I will find some solace in one set of friends going through the emotions I went through in 2011. I was lucky enough to be at Eden Park watching the All Blacks cling on to the Webb Ellis trophy.
As rugby globally has better access to coaches and resources we are seeing minnows toppling the more favoured nations, and the difference between the top eight teams becoming interchangeable in rankings weekly. This is why I will not be surprised if we have a new World Cup winner in 2015.
Having been privileged enough to meet many rugby greats and World Cup winners over the years through work, friends or at matches, a common thread prevails to winning a World Cup: form, coaching, momentum, learning lessons, great players and luck.
I firmly believe all of the teams I named above can get to the semi-finals of this year’s World Cup and most could hit all six common threads to win the event as well.
Like previous editions of this great tournament, some of the teams are more likely to win and through the event the probability can change markedly. But one thing remains a constant, if you do not play to your potential, like we saw with England last weekend, if the pressure becomes suffocating, then any of the top teams can lose a match.
So early into the event, who looks good?
Australia
A well coached team that has had a clear aim over the past six months – build an aggressive and abrasive front five that can scrum. The rest should fall into place. The breakdown has been a key area already at this tournament and in Michael Hooper and David Pocock, Australia boast the two best exponents. This is a team on the rise and if it does not win the World Cup, it will win back the Bledisloe Cup in the next two years. Goal-kicking and lineouts could hurt their prospects.
England
Great crowd support, strong forward pack and a great goal-kicker. This World Cup is four years too early for this team and coach. Stuart Lancaster wants to play “complete” rugby but under duress they resort to type and play conservatively. This weekend will reveal much, I suspect a new brave England will play a ‘surprisingly’ strong Australian forward pack.
France
The best rugby team to have never won the Rugby World Cup, but is this all about to change? They have a strong front five, creative backline and the brilliant Thierry Dusautoir. Their opening 60 minutes against England in Paris was frightening and capable of winning this event. Their weakness, however, is their unpredictability. Which France will turn up, the team that put 25 on England or the team that conceded 20 points in the final 10 minutes?
Ireland
Six Nation champions with a pragmatic and suffocating style suited to knock-out rugby thanks to their clubs doing so well in the Heineken Cup over the past decade. This team is well coached based on the player pool, and if Johnny Sexton stays fit they will not only get out of their pool for the first time at a World Cup, but also could get to the semi-finals and beyond.
Do not underestimate the support they will get at the grounds, particularly if the English return their tickets for the knock-out matches. Must beat the French to avoid the All Blacks in Cardiff to realise their dream.
South Africa
A dangerous squad as they have the ability to play complete rugby. Also a side that will destroy a team in the knock-out phase with a dominant forward display and brilliant back-line play, but have the potential to follow up with a poor showing the following match.
Why? Because of a brilliant but inexperienced fly-half and centre pairing plus a couple of players who are past their best. They can get up for one game, but not two in a row. If their coach reverts to power rugby and picks his form players they can go all the way, despite losing to Japan.
Wales
Thoroughly deserved their victory over arch enemies England last weekend. Injuries have decimated their campaign, yet if Australia win then they can play their reserve team against the Wallabies and regroup for the knock-out matches. There are enough Lions in this squad to match their 2011 campaign and reach the semi-finals again.
All Blacks
The favourites once again, they have the ability to retain the trophy but only if Dan Carter remains fit for the one knock-out match that comes down to goal-kicking. The forward pack does not dominate anymore but is efficient at scrums and lineout, which can be sufficient to win the event.
The concern at the moment will be the high ball and Tony Woodcock and Julian Savea’s lack of form. If they get through their quarter-final in Cardiff they will be a tough prospect but not unbeatable.
So now we enter the exciting stage of the World Cup where a victory can mean reaching the knock-out matches and a loss can end dreams. This is why this tournament is addictive to watch and emotions are difficult to control.
As an All Blacks supporter I hope we don’t have a repeat of Cardiff in 2007 as I sat in the stand watching our dreams fade. Though I was proud of the team and coach in the ensuing days when they never complained, only congratulating the French.
This tournament has the ability to capture the imaginations of millions of supporters, no matter who your team and expectations. This is why I love it and will also not be surprised to see France lift the trophy on October 31 for the first time.
If they are playing the All Blacks at Twickenham – I have been lucky enough to get tickets – then I will be gutted in the stands, but I will also know the joyful feelings my French friends will get after their hangovers subside.
The following morning I will take my six- and 10-year-old boys down to the Beckenham rugby club in South East London and marvel at how much the kids love playing the game, safe in the knowledge that rugby is in great health and still the greatest game on the planet and that it’s only four more years until Japan.
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