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We are from the south, hear us roar! Or some such. It’s an all-southern hemisphere semi-final stage of the Rugby World Cup, and that seems to be important in the eyes of many.
All I know is that it means two more early starts this weekend. If last weekend’s quarters were any guide that means recovery should be achieved around Tuesday afternoon, or Wednesday morning, if we’re in for another 79th-minute thriller.
The semi-final stage is interesting. While New Zealand would undoubtedly be seeking another title – and I’m sure the three other teams desperately want to lift ‘Bill Ellis’ too – the semis have traditionally been the goal for most campaigns.
Once you get to the penultimate weekend of a World Cup, well, anything can happen from there.
So is the 2015 Rugby World Cup a success already for these sides? Thankfully, the Big Questions are here to tackle such quandaries – though, admittedly, not that particular quandary, which I just thought of now while writing this paragraph.
It would’ve been a good question to address, in hindsight…
Question 1: Are the Wallabies at risk of running out of petrol after the effort of getting through the Pool of Death?
Diggercane: I think this is a very real problem for Michael Cheika and his staff to address. When you consider the dominating build-up to the tournament of the Pool of Death, and varying opinions of the Wallabies’ chances, the effort and planning that would have gone into the pool phase along with the pressure would have been immense and ultimately fatiguing.
The quarter-final performance was not one of their best and included many errors, including a late intercept which was close to going down in infamy as one of the great all time blunders.
Perhaps this was the reminder that the Wallabies needed, the kick in the pants so to speak, and there is the benefit of familiarity with the remaining potential opposition. But after the highs of England, the performance has dropped in the following weeks. Can they reverse this trend?
Harry Jones: The Wallabies weren’t cloistered in a monastery. They knew Australia had risen to co-favourites, and Scotland was seen as a punching bag. This was complacency; Japan the Sequel, with a happier ending.
Coaches with a team on a winning streak secretly love a close win full of ‘coachable moments’. Cheika will have an embarrassing video clip for each player, each combo, each unit, and the team as a whole, and have the ammo to lambast the sheepish Wallabies. He will have their attention. Look for a backlash.
Brett McKay: No, I don’t think so. The scare from Scotland and the inevitable training track sprays and simultaneous arse-kickings from Cheika will be more than enough to refill the tanks for the semis.
Just like the Japan loss is fuelling the Springboks, and just as the Australia loss would’ve kept Wales firing, the near miss last weekend will be what drives the Wallabies from here.
Just knowing that one decision might have sent them home from the World Cup will have a restorative effect, and I’m actually expecting a bounce this weekend against Argentina.
The Last Word: Digger
Well, the lads see no issue here and suggest it may in fact be a necessary evil, a point of view I can certainly appreciate. I still maintain the Pumas look more cohesive and playing with more energy. The reintroduction of David Pocock will certainly help lift the side. Yes, I think he is that good.
Question 2: When rivals are this familiar – in fact, according to Steve Hansen, playing the Boks is like playing your brother – the difference often comes down to one or two players making something big happen, good or bad. Which two players on each semi-final team do you see having the potential to swing it for or against their side?”
Digger: Australia with Pocock is the most obvious. He is arguably the best player in the world today and he is a vital component to Australian success, as is Bernard Foley. The ‘iceman’ must perform to the standard he set against England for the Wallabies to progress.
Augustin Creevy, the inspirational Argentina captain is integral to their success but for me the key is Juan Martin Hernandez. The classy midfielder will need to be at the peak of his powers for the Pumas to reach their first final.
For South Africa, Duane Vermeulen needs to be his monsterish self while the other would be Willie le Roux. He can provide the unknown quality, the creativity on attack that South Africa will need if they wish to contest for their third title.
Brodie Retallick is a key component for the All Blacks and his efforts in the middle are a difference maker, while Ma’a Nonu’s experience and solidity is paramount for the All Blacks’ hopes of progressing.
Harry: For Australia, Will Genia can and must ignite the kind of quick-quick ball, using sharp passes to either side to allow the zig-zag back attack that can carve up the leaky Puma defence. Foley could be the weak link, making the 9-10 axis the key to the Wallabies’ dreams.
For Argentina, Joaquin Tuculet will have to keep performing miracles under the high ball, and he can do it. Nico Sanchez may have a tough day at the office. But while Australia can survive a bad Foley, it’s not clear to me that the Pumas can overcome a substandard Sanchez.
South Africa’s pack will be fine against the All Blacks. In fact, the Boks have the upper hand. But we need le Roux to wake up and turn Julian Savea; make the bus stop and turn and crash. The Cheetahs trickster showed signs as he ghosted through the stingy Welsh defence once. He needs more. I think we’ll see le Roux turn it on. To me, the question mark is Handre Pollard. Will we see him take over a game? He’ll need to outduel the maestro.
New Zealand must make great decisions in traffic, the flips and pops won’t be happening in space and time as against a nonplussed France. The Boks are tackling offensively. So the big ball carriers have to step up.
Brodie Retallick may be the man to get the Kiwis on that all-important front foot. Kieran Read is my choice to be badly outplayed by his opposite number at the worst time and crash the favourites out of the cup.
Brett: You guys have nailed plenty I was thinking of – Pocock and Foley, Hernandez, Vermeulen and le Roux, and Nonu, so I’ll just throw up some names in addition.
Kurtley Beale just seems to get better every week. His impact from the bench had been fantastic in the pool games, but he played that well starting last week that I wonder if some thought will be given to bring Israel Folau back via the bench and leave Beale to start.
Juan Martín Fernandez Lobbe had similarly been a bit quiet in 2015, but didn’t he turn it on last week against Ireland. That break of his down the left turned out to be match-winning, and he is the sort of player who can just find something when it’s needed.
I completely agree with le Roux (who I know is capable, but who has been disappointingly quiet this tournament), but I’ll throw up Pat Lambie too, because he can influence a game in so many ways. He a very, very good goal-kicker, which is important for Heyneke Meyer’s gameplan, but he’s also got some impressive vision and a willingness to attack if something’s on. He has been another really good bench impact player.
Finally, I can’t believe Nehe Milner-Skudder hasn’t come up yet. His footwork is such that he can find space where there mightn’t have been any, meaning that defenders might not necessarily do anything wrong, yet the ball is still running away under No.14’s arm.
The Last Word: Digger
Sums it all up nicely really but in this pressure cooker environment, it will be about which team copes the best and produces the best cohesive performance on the day. That’s not too cheesy or clichéd is it?
Question 3: Short of an extravagant plan involving traffic congestion and convoluted detouring away from ‘Twickers’, what is South Africa’s best hope of toppling New Zealand?
Digger: It’s relatively simple I think, based on previous matches the two sides have played out. They must play for the full 80 odd minutes, something the Springboks have rarely achieved in the past several seasons, guilty of letting the match slip away in the last 20.
Harry: South Africa will win, and the way they’ll win is three-parted:
1. Impose our will on the All Blacks in a ferocious manner. New Zealand have only played one sort of tough game – their first. Shell-shock the Kiwis, and never let up.
2. Never give New Zealand any easy counters, or turnovers. If that happens, flood the area, tackle with every body part, infringe en masse. Force the ref into tough choices, the kind that sometimes make them swallow their whistle.
3. Make every visit into the New Zealand 22 count. Drop goals are beautiful.
Brett: I genuinely think traffic congestion and possibly kidnapping are the Boks’ best bet, but Señor Jones makes a very good point about drop goals.
And let’s face it, there’s plenty of history here: Botha, Stransky, de Beer, Steyn, Steyn…
A couple of phases into midfield and Pollard back in the pocket wouldn’t be the silliest modus operandi whenever South Africa get into New Zealand territory. But nor should kidnapping be totally dismissed.
The Last Word: Digger
Being a Kiwi I don’t really care for this question much but all relevant points made (except for the kidnapping bit, that would be as silly as suggesting food poisoning or something just as evil).
I would also add South Africa’s game management needs to be up to par, particularly before and after half-time and in that last quarter. They just have to have a crack and play with attacking intent for the entire match. Any defensive mindset would be pointless, they won’t hold out.
They also need to bring something new to the party, vary the attack. Plenty of space in behind the All Blacks in defence and with the pace of Jesse Kriel among others in their backline, a few deft kicks through could really help throw a spanner in the works.
Bonus Point: It’s semi-final time – more tries or penalty goals this weekend?
Digger: Bugger it, I am saying tries. Tries, tries and more tries! To the All Blacks anyway.
Brett: There were 26 tries and 25 penalty goals scored last weekend, and while that surprised me how close it was, I think it’ll be all about penalties this weekend. No-one will be knocking back points from here on.
Harry: Penalty goals, definitely. This is when soft tries evaporate.