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Coffee consumption at McSport HQ is reaching new peaks of late.
After another early morning thriller on Sunday saw the Wallabies through to their fourth Rugby World Cup final, it is now highly likely that by this time next week that I’ll be measuring blood levels in my caffeine stream.
Oh, man, what a weekend of early starts it’s been. What a weekend of rugby it’s been. And what a week of cracking build-up and nervous anticipation we now have before us.
The very easy and obvious starting point would be to throw out there that I did indeed pick a New Zealand-Australia final pre-tournament. I’m sure I wasn’t alone in that prediction/guess, and no doubt similar levels of ner-ner-ne-ner-ner smugness are being experienced currently.
Feels good, doesn’t it.
It is, however, fair to say that there have been numerous times since the tournament began when that prediction has looked a bit shaky.
Getting out of Pool A was going to be the Wallabies’ biggest test of 2015. The win over England was only topped by the amount of fun that’s been had as a result of England not progressing from the pool. However only a week later against Wales it took the mother of all defensive efforts to withstand the relentless Welsh challenge on top spot.
And just think about that for minute. In the context of what the Wallabies have subsequently achieved in beating Scotland and Argentina in knockout matches, hasn’t Adam Ashley-Cooper’s 69th minute tackle-and-turnover play on Welsh flyhalf Dan Biggar taken on extra significance now?
Even with the scare from Scotland last week, there’s a decent argument to be made the Wallabies had to work harder to get out of the pool than to get through the quarters and the semi.
There were no real concerns about New Zealand reaching the final, however.
Argentina gave them the biggest test during the Pool C games, and by the time they arrived in Cardiff for the quarters, there was something of a going-through-the-motions feel about the All Blacks. Of course, it wasn’t that simple for them.
Come the quarters, well, they unleashed a try-scoring tsunami on France, with all kinds of records broken along the way, and in a manner that must have left the teams left behind in Pool D – Italy, Romania and Canada – thinking they surely couldn’t have done worse.
It was a very different story in the semi against South Africa, though, with the All Blacks found surprisingly wanting in the first half. They needed a discipline adjustment and all their available bench impact to get home.
Thankfully some common sense broke out in the aftermath, too, with Richie McCaw not cited for his mythical flying elbow to Francois Louw’s head that actually turned out to be McCaw’s hip on Louw’s shoulder. Mind you, it still took a World Rugby statement to put the biggest non-event of the tournament to bed.
“There are no citings from the semi-final between New Zealand and South Africa,” World Rugby spokesman Dominic Rumbles said via social media.
But then the statement about the non-story became a headline in itself, with ‘McCaw clear to play’ reports flooding the ether, as if there was ever any danger of him being anything other than clear to play.
‘McCaw guilty of playing rugby’ would’ve been more accurate.
Whatever, the more pressing concern for the final now is going to be the varying degrees of fitness around key Wallabies.
Israel Folau started slowly, then seemed to grow in confidence with a couple of really promising carries into contact just before half-time. Sadly, he copped a knock on the ankle early in the second half, and was rendered a passenger until replaced shortly afterwards.
If he can only get back to the same level he was to start this game, I can’t see how he’s worth risking in a Rugby World Cup final, not with Kurtley Beale in the form he is.
Scott Sio will be the other player Michael Cheika is sweating on. Try as he might, James Slipper wasn’t quite able to stand up to the first half inquisition asked of him by Argentinean tighthead Ramiro Herrera. Like David Pocock against Scotland, we perhaps didn’t fully comprehend just how good Sio has been in this tournament until he was missing.
And then of course there’s Pocock himself. Looking post-match like he’d been caught at the bottom of every ruck in the tournament so far, Pocock’s calf muscle evidently held up very well. His preparation this week should comprise nothing less than the full Ryan Harris treatment: cotton wool, soft pillows, double malt vanilla milkshakes and whatever the hell else he needs to present ready to go next Saturday.
The Wallabies may not lift Bill Ellis with Pocock, but they most definitely won’t beat the All Blacks without him. Please, Poey, feet up thanks.
If defence is going to be the key to a Wallabies win next weekend, then at least they have been getting plenty of practice of late. In keeping England to one try, the Wallabies attempted 144 tackles, while against Wales, it was 145 tackles, and with a sizeable chunk of them coming in the last half an hour.
Even in conceding three tries against Scotland, the Wallabies attempted 96 tackles at 90 per cent effectiveness.
Against Argentina, it was herculean. The match total of 190 tackles attempted breaks down to 68 in the first half, and a mammoth 122 in the second half. A total of 33 missed tackles for a match doesn’t look great, but when viewed as part of 190 attempts, the 83 per cent success rate is quite remarkable.
Over the last four games, the Wallabies have made 501 tackles and missed 76, a success rate of 87 per cent. Is that Rugby World Cup-winning? Only time will tell.
But defence does provide an indicator of team and squad attitude, and there’s no doubting the Wallabies are currently swimming in the perfect attitudinal concoction.
Essentially, the Wallabies have tackled themselves to a Rugby World Cup final that twelve months seemed as likely as England not getting out of Pool A.
And I’ll just leave that last thought to ruminate with you for the day…