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After a week and a half of hard slog in our 2016 NRL preview series we now get to teams that were actually quite successful in 2015. Well successful enough to make the eight and in the case of today’s team, the Dragons, get knocked out in Week 1.
2015 in review: Defensive grit
2015 was an up and down year for the Dragons, as coach Paul MacGregor, who had taken over mid-2014, began to put his imprint on the team.
The team began strongly, winning eight of their first 11 games on the back of incredible defence, conceding under 12 points a game over that stretch.
However, while the defence was robust, the attack was anaemic and as the season wore on the team simply wasn’t able to score enough points to compete, as the defensive intensity inevitably dropped away.
This trend carried all the way through to the elimination final, which they lost 11-10 to the Bulldogs.
However it is worth remembering that expectations were not high for the team at the beginning of the year, and while fans may have ended up disappointed at the team’s exit, simply making the eight was an achievement
Offseason story: Recruitment hits and misses
As a team at the bottom end of the eight with a lot of space to grow, it was inevitable the club would be linked to a number of off-contract players. So it was, as the Dragons were reportedly in on players like James Roberts and Jack Bird before landing one quality player, Tim Lafai from the Bulldogs, as part of the great centre-go-round of 2015.
Roster management
2016 gains: Kalifa Faifai Loa, Siliva Havili, Sebastine Ikahihifo, Tim Lafai, Dunamis Lui, Kurt Mann, Mose Masoe, Josh McCrone, Russell Packer
2016 losses: Craig Garvey, Dan Hunt, Justin Hunt, Heath L’Estrange , Trent Merrin, Eto Nabuli, Dane Nielsen, Rory O’Brien, Charly Runciman
Lots of movement here, but not all that much substance.
The team has made several moves to bolster their forward pack, however few were particularly inspiring.
Enormous former Rooster and Panther Mose Masoe has spent the past two seasons in the Super League and would have brought valuable size and experience. Sadly however, Masoe tore his ACL in preseason and will miss most if not the entire season.
Of the other forward recruits, players like Sebastine Ikahihifo and Dunamis Lui have been fringe first graders throughout their careers, while it remains to be seen whether former Warrior Russell Packer can return to football at an elite level after several years out of the game.
The team’s backline recruits are no more impressive. Kurt Mann was solid enough during his time at the Storm but there is always a question mark about how well a former Storm player will perform when they don’t have that team’s nurturing framework and star teammates around them.
Lafai however is a good player, and many Bulldogs fans could be forgiven for wondering why the team allowed him to depart simply to recruit the underwhelming Will Hopoate.
On the other side of the coin, losing Trent Merrin is a huge blow. Not only was he a critical part of the team’s success in 2015, he is also tailor-made for a reduced interchange league with his ability to play big minutes as either a genuine front rower or in a power lock role.
Of the other losses, the most significant are probably Eto Nabuli and Heath L’Estrange. Nabuli was the team’s third-highest try scorer in 2015 with seven in just 13 games, but was lost to the game altogether, having moved to rugby union. L’Estrange meanwhile performed well as backup to hooker Mitch Rein, however the club may be eying an 80-minute role for the impressive Rein this season.
Likely line-up
1. Kurt Mann
2. Peter Mata’utia
3. Euan Aitken
4. Josh Dugan
5. Jason Nightingale
6. Gareth Widdop
7. Benji Marshall
8. Lesson Ah Mau
9. Mitch Rein
10. Russell Packer
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Joel Thompson
13. Mike Cooper
14. Ben Creagh
15. Dunamis Lui
16. Sebastine Ikahihifo
17. Jack de Belin
The big talking point is the decision to move Josh Dugan to centre, which has been widely speculated. Certainly Dugan is a powerful ball runner and an extremely talented player in any position, however the average centre touches the ball far fewer times that the average fullback and is, in the modern split-halves system, generally limited to one side of the field. Moreover, the touches a centre does get are more often than not in the cut-and-thrust on the edge of the ruck rather than the free spaces a fullback gets to operate in.
Unless Dugan is significantly better within that limited role than he is at fullback (a position which he has played at Origin level), or unless Mann is significantly better than he demonstrated at the Storm in 2015, it seems an odd choice to put the ball in Dugan’s hands less often and with less room to move.
Additionally, Dugan is not renowned for his passing game or ability to create tries for others. He recorded only a single try assist all season in 2015, with only Josh Hoffman creating fewer tries for teammates among regular fullbacks. Dugan’s game is about running the ball, not passing it.
However Dugan will almost certainly be a great centre because he is a wonderful, natural footballer and he will adjust his game to the role. But a great fullback, which Dugan is despite the lack of a passing game, is much more important than a great centre.
Overall however the Dragons backline is a solid mix of talent and experience, with players like Euan Aitken and Peter Mata’utia looking to build on excellent seasons in 2015, and veterans like Jason Nightingale, Gareth Widdop and Benji Marshall still more than capable at first-grade level.
The forward pack however is less impressive. While Tyson Frizell and Joel Thompson were both very good in 2015 and should continue to shore up the edges, the middle unit of front rowers and locks is concerning.
The team will be relying on players like Leeson Ah Mah, who had a career year in 2015, and Packer, who has just returned from several years out of the game (he did at least play the second half of the NSW Cup season in 2015 which will help) in the starting line-up.
Beyond those two, the team’s depth is troubling. Players like Lui and Ikahihifo are slated to be regular members of the match-day 17 after being fringe first graders thus far in their careers. Meanwhile, Ben Creagh has been in decline for a number of seasons.
Player to watch: Benji Marshall
I’m about to compare Benji Marshall to Shane Warne, but please bear with me. I promise it makes sense and I guarantee there will be no references to Warne’s ‘celebrity’ lifestyle.
In the early part of his career, Warne beat the opposition with brilliant audacity – the monster leg spinner out of the footmarks or the flipper straight up the middle into poor old Daryl Cullinan’s pads. But later in his career Warne lost those balls and relied instead on a craftier game, on subtle variations, and in the end on being intimidating simply by being Shane Warne.
The same is true of Marshall. Gone are the otherworldly flick passes and extravagant steps and dummies that were the hallmark of his game in the early part of his career. In their place are accurate kicks, well-timed runs, and artful, rather than otherworldly, passes. He is a more grounded and ordinary player than the mid-2000s Wests Tigers Benji but he still has the nous to be effective, recording 18 try assists in 2015.
However Father Time remains undefeated and rumours already abound that this season may be Marshall’s last in the NRL. Even if he doesn’t depart, it’s likely his skills will begin to diminish in the near future. I recommend everyone enjoy watching Benji while he is still resembles the wizard of the 2005-era Tigers.
Predicted finish: Miss the eight
Dragons fans will be aghast at this prediction, however the team has achieved very little in recruitment to improve, while the teams immediately outside the eight – like the Eagles, Panthers, Raiders Warriors and Eels – have brought in exciting new players, or have important players returning from injury.
The Dragons’ success in 2015 was built on a level of intensity theY struggled to continue for the full 26 rounds. Perhaps they can start afresh with that intensity in 2016, but they can’T continue it for an entire season.
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