Footy season is finally back and that means tipping comps nationwide are going into overdrive.
So each week to try and help out my fellow punters I’m going to be offering analysis that might steer you to a full round.
Eels vs Broncos
To open the NRL season Parramatta will take on last year’s grand finalists the Brisbane Broncos.
While the Eels have bought extremely well in the off-season, the Broncos carry essentially the same squad that took them inches of a premiership trophy in 2015.
The loss of Justin Hodges is offset by the addition of speed demon James Roberts for the Broncos and you can guarantee Ben Hunt will never drop a kick off again.
The Eels transformation may be well underway on paper but you can expect it to take a few weeks to truly kick into gear especially with the late withdrawal of the brilliant yet injury prone Kieran Foran.
Tip: Broncos by 12
Sea Eagles vs Bulldogs
The Bulldogs will be hampered by the loss of fullback Brett Morris. After Will Hopoate’s incredibly underwhelming 2015 season, his addition at fullback could go either way. It is quite possible that Sam Perrett may spend some time at the back having done an admirable job over the past few seasons.
Tim Lafai is a loss for the Dogs from last season but Chase Stanley has shown that when he stays injury free he can play some great footy. Other than that the Dogs only real personnel change is the loss of Trent Hodkinson but as he spent much of last season injured or alternating with new halfback Moses Mbye, the Dogs are in relatively good shape and field almost the same squad as 2015.
In contrast to the Dogs, Manly have a vastly different side. Five-eighth Dylan Walker, hooker Apisai Koroisau, prop Nate Myles, back rowers Lewis Brown and Martin Taupau and interchange hooker/utility Matt Parcell are all new faces in the squad. Manly have arguably picked up the best quality of all 16 teams in the off-season and it’s safe to say on paper this is a far stronger side than 2015.
They have a potent and speedy backline a combination of size; workhorse and speed in the forwards and Matt Parcell on the bench could be a game breaker.
Tip: Manly by 10
Raiders vs Panthers
The Raiders have improved upon their 2015 squad with the addition of mercurial half Aiden Sezer and veteran steamroller Jeff Lima.
Perhaps the most bizarre thing about their Round 1 team is that one of 2015 best players in the entire competition, Blake Austin, has been named on the bench with coach Ricky Stuart opting to start with Sam Williams.
Admittedly Austin provides far more punch off the bench than Williams and is extremely versatile but it seems such a waste to not have one of your best players not playing a full 80. The fact that Kurt Baptiste is included on an extended bench however means we could see a last minute change with Austin brought into the starting side and Williams out altogether.
Penrith are in trouble to start Round 1 with two key absentees, namely new captain and x-factor Matt Moylan (replaced by Will Smith at fullback) and classy centre Dean Whare. Whare is replaced by a very contrasting style in the form of big and raw Waqa Blake.
With both Jamie Soward and Peter Wallace struggling last season, the Panthers may be lacking just that little bit of spark that could get them over the line in this one.
Tip: Raiders by 8
Wests Tigers vs Warriors
The biggest issue in Round 1 for the Tigers is that they will be relying on their third choice hooker for the season in the form of Mania Cherrington, with no suitable replacement on the bench should injury strike.
On the subject of replacements the Tigers arguably have the weakest bench in the competition. Ava Seumanufagai is a quality prop and Josh Aloiai has had plaudits bestowed upon him all through the pre season, but the lumbering duo of Kyle Lovett and Jack Buchannan are players who offer no real impact.
For this reason the Tigers are in trouble of being steamrolled by a big Warriors pack. That means trouble for the already weakened halves combination of Mitchell Moses and Jack Littlejohn.
The Warriors have strike power all over the place in the form of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Shaun Johnson, Manu Vatuvei and Issac Luke, but the selection of Blake Ayshford ahead of Konrad Hurrell is nothing short of bizarre. Jeff Robson’s selection at halfback is ultimately Andrew McFadden going for the safe option given his playing style is very similar to the control offered by last season’s half Chad Townsend. However it seems a waste not to offer the dangerous Tuimoala Lolohea a chance to prove himself as Shaun Johnson’s right hand man.
Tip: Warriors by 14
Cowboys vs Sharks
The Cowboys have named the exact same 17 who played in and won last year’s grand final, an incredible feat.
This is an extremely well balanced 17 that is arguably even more dangerous then last season as players such as Michael Morgan continue to improve.
The Sharks were one of the off-season’s best recruiters, succeeding in bringing a terrific halves combination of James Maloney and Chad Townsend to the club. You can expect a strong kicking game off these two and therefore you can expect more of the grinding style that Cronulla have become famous for.
It is unlikely however that this match will end up in a grind due to the tendency of the Cowboys to throw the ball around. They like to reap the rewards of second phase play off the back of Jason Taumalolo and company.
Ben Barba will be the key to the Sharks victory. He impressed in pre-season and with pressure from two outstanding young players in the form of Jack Bird and Valentine Holmes, only his scintillating best will allow him to continue to be the number one choice at fullback.
Tip: Cowboys by 8
Roosters vs Rabbitohs
The Roosters field a severely weakened side compared to their full strength 2015 roster. This Round 1 iteration sees the absence of Roger Tuivasa-Scheck, Michael Jennings, James Maloney, Mitchell Pearce, Jared Warea-Hargraves and Boyd Cordner.
So much will rest on the new halves combination. What they make lack in comparative control to the Mitch Pearce-James Maloney combo will be offset by energy, enthusiasm and exuberance – both of these kids can play and both are very quick.
While Souths have also lost a lot of experience through transfer, injury and suspension, their replacements are exciting to say the least. Cody Walker could well put Luke Keary out of a job if his stunning charity shield performance is anything to go by. Paul Carter is a player of enormous workrate and potential and Damien Cook on the bench could prove to be the most dangerous hooker in the competition this season.
Oh, and two words: Sam Burgess.
Tip: Rabbitohs by 4
Titans vs Knights
Most pundits will immediately view this as an extremely premature battle for the spoon.
The Knights have named five debutants, which is refreshing and overkill in equal measure. The Knights needed an injection of new blood but five debutants at once – particularly when you consider the quality options that will be playing reserve grade such as Jake Mamo and Sione Mata’utai – it seems like a huge gamble.
Playing Jaelen Feeney at fullback could be the biggest gamble of them all given he hasn’t played in the position since juniors, but, anyone that saw Feeney play in the NSW Cup last year knows that he is a hell of a talent.
For the Titans everything rests on their halves combination. The brilliant Kane Elgey will unfortunately miss the entire 2016 season but Ashley Taylor comes with similar wraps. Tyrone Roberts is the man most under pressure in this side after than Daley Cherry-Evans debacle and the failure to lure Trent Hodkinson to the Sunshine Coast.
Tip: Titans by 7
Storm versus Dragons
The Storm have once again created a strong squad for this season and the Round 1 team is a reflection of that. There is speed, strength and cunning littered throughout the team and while the prodigious Cameron Munster is missing due to a knee injury, the effervescent Billy Slater returns to play his first game of football since Origin II 2015.
The Dragons bought well in the off-season and will pose a threat to the Storm as Kurt Mann offers a new dimension of attack from fullback. Tim Lafai’s signature and Josh Dugan’s seemingly permanent move to the centres really strengthen the backline. Russell Packer’s near 995-day NRL exodus will leave him hungry to rip in.
The Dragons will challenge the Storm in a big way but the home side should grind out a victory.
Tip: Storm by 4
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