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With the nine weeks of the regular season now behind us, the League Championship Series (LCS) regions of North America and Europe are about to begin their playoff rounds.
The next results will determine the final seeding for the spring split and who will receive all-important championship points, which will ultimately be used to decide which teams will attend the World Championships at the end of the year.
For anyone not up to date on the standings, here’s a quick recap.
In Europe, G2 Esports and H2K sit on top of the table, one win apart. Team Vitality narrowly missed out on the first round bye, sitting in third, with Origen and Unicorns of Love a few games behind. Fnatic, who ran an undefeated regular season in Summer 2015, fill out the playoffs in sixth place.
Across the pond in North America, Immortals finished their debut split far ahead of any competition. Counter Logic Gaming will join them in skipping to the semi-finals, only one game up on third place Cloud9. Upset wins by both Team Liquid and NRG Esports brought them into fourth and fifth respectively; this pushed Team SoloMid down to sixth.
Now, to this weekend’s games, the quarter-finals. Each region will play third versus sixth, and fourth versus fifth.
Vitality versus Fnatic
I’m not going to lie, I was pretty disappointed when KaSing confirmed he would be playing in Europe this season instead of with Team SoloMid in North America. This new squad has stepped up in impressive form though, consistently sitting at the top of the standings, and winning both of their regular season games against Fnatic.
Vitality have some of the highest kill participation rates in the league across the board, and the team’s average of 74.3 per cent is the highest of the top six. In absolute terms, they don’t necessarily get the most kills in a game.
Instead, they play the map, make the most out of their roams and rotations, and win their games by prioritising objectives. They can win this series by continuing to play the macro game, and by taking greater control over objectives than their opponents.
Fnatic do have some things in their favour though. By all accounts, the new patch favours their play style. No matter the meta game, Gamsu has played top lane bruisers basically all season, and if the Korean LCK games are anything to go by, champions like Maokai are definitely back in vogue.
The organisation as a whole has so much experience backing it up, too, and should draw on that collective experience to adapt to their opponents across a best of five series.
Fnatic showed flashes of brilliance at the Intel Extreme Masters World Championships, and if they can recapture that while using the new patch to their advantage, they may be able to outperform Vitality.
They have also played in every LCS final to date – that’s not a streak they’ll be wanting to break. That said, Vitality have consistently performed at a high level all split, and at this stage they simply outclass Fnatic.
Prediction: Vitality 3-1 Fnatic
Unicorns of Love versus Origen
This is a much more difficult game to call, and honestly depends heavily on whether or not Origen field xPeke or PowerOfEvil in the mid lane. The teams only finished the season one game apart, and although Origen hold the head-to-head lead, their second game in week eight saw Unicorns of Love in front until around the 30-minute mark.
Origen are practically a different team with xPeke in midlane. With him, Origen have shown that they can set up strong splitpushes, something they simply haven’t managed with PoE. We’re going off a small sample size here, but xPeke also has averaged more kills, and more kills and assists per game than PowerOfEvil.
That all said, Unicorns of Love have looked rocky in recent weeks when denied power picks, so even with PoE they should be able to pull out a win, though it should make for a closer series.
Unicorns of Love will be tested in these playoffs, no matter which players come out for Origen. With only two wins in the last seven games, Unicorns have slumped hard from tied second at the end of week five.
With that in mind though, Steeelback was named one of the OP5 for week nine, having played two excellent games on the recently buffed Sivir. If the team can get him on Sivir again, and perhaps pull out one of their older-style, off-the-wall champion picks, they may just be able to take the wins out from Origen.
If Origen have any sense, xPeke will be playing; with him,Origen are easily favourites to win. Unicorns of Love will have to work hard with either midlaner, but if they can play to their strengths, and maybe pull out a pocket pick, they could be in with a chance.
Prediction: Origen 3-1 Unicorns of Love
Cloud9 versus Team SoloMid
Being a total Cloud9 fangirl, and an ex-Team SoloMid fangirl, this is a match-up I’m really looking forward to. Cloud9 only missed out on a quarter-final bye by a single game, and are favourites to win this series well beyond my bias. Although the head-to-head is 1-1, neither game was a particularly convincing win.
Cloud9 just need to keep doing what they have been doing in order to win this series. I would sincerely appreciate it if they could not give up early leads (in contrast to their “lose early, win later” strategy mid-split), but Hai has shown many times that he can call a game to victory even from 4k gold down.
Overall, Cloud9 have been looking pretty strong in the closing weeks of the split – Team SoloMid have dropped multiple games to teams with bottom-half rankings, whereas Cloud9 have not underestimated their opponents in the same way.
Team SoloMid have such a stacked roster on paper, but this split it has been so difficult for them to find synergy as a team. Their play has been very inconsistent, but one common theme in their victories has been exceptional play from Hauntzer.
If he can either steamroll and carry, or rack up a ridiculous number of assists to Bjergsen or Doublelift, the team can perform phenomenally with him. Team SoloMid will do best if they get Hauntzer on a carry toplaner (à la Dyrus on a good day), and work as a team rather than as five exceptional but individual players; if they can do that, they definitely have the individual skill to take the series from Cloud9.
Team SoloMid have probably the most difficult road to the quarter-finals out of the eight teams playing this weekend. In theory they could win this, but only if they have worked hard on their synergy issues over the last two weeks – issues that they’ve not been able to fix during the nine weeks of the regular season.
Cloud9 need to try not to put themselves in the familiar position of playing from behind, and continue to trust in each other, and in Hai’s calls.
Prediction: Cloud9 3-0 Team SoloMid
Team Liquid versus NRG
While I’m looking forward to Cloud9 versus Team SoloMid from a fan point of view, I think Team Liquid versus NRG has the potential to be the most interesting match for the weekend. Both these teams have seen some highs and lows through the spring split, and they are 1-1 head to head.
Team Liquid come into this game with the more experienced-as-a-team roster. Piglet had an excellent week 9, averaging one kill every four minutes in their two wins, and Dardoch was incredible in their stomp of Cloud9.
In fact, the only loss Team Liquid was dealt in the last three weeks of the LCS was at the hands of NRG, and even that was close through the early- to mid-game. To win this series, Team Liquid need to play the picks they are comfortable on, and play them reliably.
NRG were slumping in the second half of the season. They have managed to score a few key wins to bring themselves into fifth ahead of Team SoloMid, but their games are still inconsistent. In three of their four most recent wins, GBM excelled in mid with a pocket pick – Karma, Zilean and Zed (the fourth win against Team SoloMid he played a solid Azir, but Team SoloMid were in the lead for the whole game and just threw hard).
I don’t like to say it, but the most reliable way for them to win is for GBM to play champions that Team Liquid won’t be prepared for.
NRG are capable of taking this series, but they need to be able to catch Team Liquid off-guard, and Altec needs to co-carry with GBM. As a BO5, GBM needs three pocket picks to do that – and knowing that that’s his tendency, Team Liquid should prepare for the unexpected. If they stick with comfortable, OP picks, they should be able to edge out NRG… but it’ll be close.
Prediction: Team Liquid 3-2 NRG
This weekend is sure to give us some great games, although with them starting at an eye-watering 3am on Sunday and Monday I wouldn’t blame anyone for watching the replays later in the day. The teams that are successful in their series this weekend will move up to play against the top two teams in their region in a week’s time – the games only get better from here!