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After a bleak start to the season, the St George Illawarra are beginning to round into form, which can be attributed to the performance of club superstar Josh Dugan.
The team’s best player has lived up to lofty expectations, posting elite numbers across the board so far, headlined by a league-best 177.5 running metres a game.
Delve a little deeper and it’s staggering to see the variety in some of his performances. No surprise, it has everything to do with what position Dugan is playing.
Dugan has become a staple of the Blues squad, taking home NSW player of the year for the 2015 series. He made his debut for the Kangaroos last year on the right wing, and was again selected in 2016, this time as the right centre. But he has always looked more comfortable at the back of the attack.
With his kick return and ball running ability, brilliantly displayed in his outstanding performance in the No. 1 jersey throughout last year’s Origin series, Dugan is a genuine threat whenever taking on the line. He is in the upper-tier of defensive fullbacks, frequently making the right play when the opposing team makes a line-break, and always puts his body on the line to contest scoring opportunity.
He rarely drops a high ball. With the footy in hand, Dugan isn’t necessarily a bad decision-maker, although he can be somewhat of a ball stopper from time to time, and the development of this skill has directly contributed to James Tedesco’s rise in people’s estimations (the Tiger having seven try assists from 8.5 games).
With Dugan’s heavy focus on ball running, there is always rumblings that the role he plays at fullback could be completed as a centre or winger. And it is this line of thinking that led to the Dragons shfiting Kurt Mann, the better ballplayer, to the fullback spot, with Dugan going to the right edge.
Whether or not it was originally intended as a long-term move, the initial returns were not encouraging. Dugan struggled in the first game with the increased defensive requirements, missing a season-high six tackles. In Round 1 he ran for 89 metres, in Round 2 he managed 39 – both Dragons losses.
Paul McGregor then shifted Dugan back to his usual role for Round 3, where the former Raider churned out 211 metres and a line-break in a typical scrappy, low-scoring Dragons win.
He remained the custodian for the following five games, peaking with a 24-run, 312-metre effort against the Broncos.
It wasn’t until the Round 9 trip across the Tasman, with Tim Lafai ruled out on gameday, that Dugan returned to the centres. Unsurprisingly, he again struggled to get involved, with only 12 runs, considerably down from his 19 per game average. He also missed four tackles. Again, the Dragons lost.
McGregor reiterated post-match that the move was made out of necessity, regardless, the performance wasn’t adequate.
Prior to the Warriors match, the Australian team was announced, with Josh to line-up at right centre. Granted, the international arena is always going to lower individuals output, however once again Dugan failed to run 100 metres, never really got into the game, and struggled to find the ball.
The eye test says it all, yet to completely understand the difference in performance between the different positions it is integral to look at the split numbers of his season.
Fullback: seven games, 220 metres and 22.5 runs per game for five wins from seven matches.
Centre: three games, 46.3 metres and 11.3 runs per game for zero wins from three matches.
Numbers don’t lie.
For the Dragons
It simply isn’t enough to have Dugan only see the ball 11 times a game. Considering the difference in output and the lack of talent the Dragons posses to replace him at the back, the centre experiment must be abandoned. Mann simply isn’t NRL standard at the back.
Being the Dragons’ best player, it is a necessity to have him see as much ball as possible in the areas of the field he is most effective, specifically returning the ball.
His statistics from fullback are, by a considerable amount, the most dominant of any individual in the league, the Dragons play better with him in his natural role, and their winning rate is much higher.
For the Blues
It seems to be a case of over complicating a rather simple equation. While the other available options (Tedesco is injured) in Lachlan Coote and Matt Moylan are fantastic, neither posses the individual brilliance to turn a game on its head like Duges.
He was NSW’s most outstanding performer in last year’s series, and has done enough form-wise in clubland to reclaim his spot. Besides, he has failed to display any level of comfort in the centre position for the Dragons, and a transition to the exceptional increase in intensity to the Origin arena posts a serious challenge.
Michael Jennings on the left and any combination of Josh Ferguson, Josh Morris and James Roberts on the right side illustrates how adequately the fringes can be filled by the Blues, and thus a lack of need to move Dugan out of position. This notion is heightened when considering Coote or Moylan, while both great players, are not an upgrade over Dugan at fullback.
If the theory behind the move is an attempt to fit as much talent into the team as possible, it’s worth pondering whether Josh Dugan is actually a better centre than Morris, Ferguson or Roberts.
Strong word out of the Blues camp is Dugan is set to be retained at right centre, rejoining Roos partner Ferguson, as Laurie Daley will opt for either Coote or Moylan as a ball-playing fullback to complement Josh Reynolds or James Maloney, as both halves are predominantly running halves.
For the Kangaroos
Although getting the victory and holding a usually potent New Zealand team to zero, there are concerns over the Kangaroos’ roster. Out wide, Dugan was the first-choice right centre due to Will Chambers’ season-ending injury.
For the upcoming Four Nations, it could be argued that the man who played outside him for the Anzac Test, Ferguson, would be a better selection in the centres, with Dugan shifting out to the wing. Concerns over Blake’s defensive game may prevent that from being the case, and it is likely Dugan will retain his spot for the end of year tournament.
Looking forward to next year’s World Cup, with a completely healthy roster, Josh will have some very steep competition for his jersey. Younger names who are not yet in the fold will begin to put their hands up, Chambers will be back, Ferguson and Roberts will all continue to improve, not to mention the slight possibility of one Jarryd Hayne returning and causing a few selection headaches.
If it isn’t fullback, wing should be Dugan’s rep level position, but he has an immense amount of work to get through before he can confidently make that jersey his own.
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