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Mercifully, the speculation is over and we now have the State of Origin sides for Game 1.
Both sides have teams containing debutants brought about through the retirement, injury and form of established players and veterans reaching the end of their Origin careers.
Prior to Game 1, I have pitted each player against their respective opposition to see who holds the advantage.
Head-to-head, how do the Origin sides square up?
Fullback – Darius Boyd versus Matt Moylan
The majority of Boyd’s career has been at wing and je has benefited enormously from a stellar cast inside him. He has been playing most of this season at fullback and was selected for Australia due to Billy Slater’s absence. Not the most creative player but Boyd has an ability to find the try line.
Moylan benefited from a relatively injury-free season and steps in for James Tedesco who was the likely fullback. A more creative player in attack but has yet to step into the Origin arena.
Verdict: Based on skill Moylan would have an advantage but Boyd has 23 Origins under his belt to Moylan’s none. Award this one to Boyd in a split decision.
Wing – Corey Oates versus Josh Mansour
Two debutants going head to head. Arguments could be made for Mansour being included in Origin much earlier; he has alread represented Australia.
Oates is relatively new to the wing after transferring from the second row. His Origin selection is a credit to how quickly he has developed into the role.
Verdict: Despite Oates’ stunning development as a winger, Mansour is healthy for the longest period in recent memory and has played the majority of his career at wing. Another split decision, this time in favour of Mansour.
Wing – Dane Gagai versus Blake Ferguson
Both have one Origin under their belt, both are playing in teams that are currently struggling, but both have form that justifies their inclusion in Origin.
Verdict: Ferguson would have had several more appearances in Origin if not for off-field indiscretions. While Gagai has performed admirably in a struggling side, Ferguson was selected by Mal Meninga over him for Australia. Another split decision for NSW with Ferguson just getting up.
Centre – Greg Inglis versus Josh Dugan
Technically they are both playing out of position, however due to Billy Slater being the Queensland fullback Inglis has played the majority of his career at centre and has caused many NSW fans, selectors, and players alike many nightmares.
Dugan was one of NSW’s most promising players last year but has struggled at centre playing for the Dragons and can’t afford any misreads or errors.
Verdict: No surprises that Inglis will get up on this via TKO. If Josh Morris was playing it would minimise the impact Inglis has on Origin. Nothing against Dugan, but his best position is fullback.
Centre – Justin O’Neill versus Michael Jennings
Another Queensland debutant with O’Neill filling in very the big shoes vacated by Justin Hodges. As for Jennings, like Josh Morris he has been one of NSW’s better performers over the past couple of years and has a lot more Origin experience under his belt.
Verdict: Giving this one to Jennings in a unanimous points decision.
Five-eighth – Johnathan Thurston versus James Maloney
Maloney is in some of the best form of his career and has helped steer the Sharks to the top of the NRL ladder. He would have a strong chance against any other five-eighth in any other era.
Unfortunately, his rival is arguably one of the greatest Queensland, Australian and NRL five-eighths of all time. Personified last week when he kicked the match-winning field goal against the Broncos just seconds after recovering from a late hit.
Verdict: Seventh-round knockout to Thurston.
Halfback – Cooper Cronk versus Adam Reynolds
Adam Reynolds joins the long list of halfbacks used by NSW in the past decade in the attempt to find a lasting combination. His form has been good for Souths but like Maloney he is coming up against a player who thrives in the Origin arena.
Cronk’s absence for the majority of the 2014 series was a key factor in NSW breaking their streak.
Verdict: Valiant effort from Reynolds but a convincing fifth-round knockout to Cronk.
Lock – Corey Parker versus Greg Bird
Both veterans of numerous Origin campaigns and both quality players, but the reality is Parker has won that many series that he holds the mental advantage over Bird. Both players are coming towards the end of their Origin careers.
Verdict: Bird won’t take a backwards step but this one goes to Parker in a unanimous decision.
Second Row – Aidan Guerra versus Boyd Cordner
Up until recent years, both were members of a highly successful Roosters forward pack. But with the Roosters’ current troubles, Guerra’s form has slipped. He was only selected firstly because Dylan Napa was banned from Origin this year by coach Kevin Walters.
Cordner has just returned from injury and has not had his confidence shaken by the Roosters’ early season performances.
Verdict: Current form is the deciding factor here. Guerra’s uninspiring form against the Bulldogs tilts this one in favour of Cordner in a split decision.
Second Row – Matt Gillett versus Josh Jackson
Two highly skilful players. Gillett has 12 Origin appearances while Jackson made his debut last year in a rather disappointing campaign, but he showed enough potential to retain his spot.
Verdict: In terms of form at club level there is nothing in it. This could go either way on the night but Gillett scrapes through in an extremely close split decision.
Front Row – Paul Gallen versus Nate Myles
These two have produced the closest thing resembling a boxing match on the footy field. Myles ruthlessly head-butted Gallen’s fists in the 2013 series. Veterans of Origin and Gallen has confirmed this will be his last season.
Verdict: Gallen’s form has been solid as always for the Sharks, whereas Myles has been struggling (by his own admission) and selection is on the basis of how well he has performed in the past. See Gallen taking this one in a split decision.
Front Row – Matt Scott versus Aaron Woods
Woods is now an established Origin player and the Tigers have desperately missed his presence at the start of the season. Rehabilitation could not have happened at a better time for NSW.
Scott has held onto his starting position despite heavy competition from Josh McGuire.
Verdict: Another fight that will go down to the wire, Woods in another close split decision.
Hooker – Cameron Smith versus Robbie Farah
Smith has a better record at club and Origin level, is the incumbent Australian hooker, has a better control of the game and referees and knows when to delegate responsibility. Farah, when pressured, can involve himself too much in the game.
Verdict: Brief summary above reflects the match-up. First-round knockout by Smith.
Interchange – Michael Morgan versus Dylan Walker
In any other era or state, Morgan would have walked into an Origin team by now. Walker’s selection was considered left-field. Both are filling utility roles. Morgan’s role, though limited, has directly impacted outcomes of the game in Queensland’s favour.
Verdict: Fourth-round knockout to Morgan.
Interchange – Sam Thaiday versus James Tamou
Thaiday has had a distinguished career but as years have progressed his role has transferred onto interchange bench. He will be fighting off challenges for his spot in years to come.
Tamou could have found himself with many more Origin appearances but has been hampered by injury and ill-discipline. If he can stay healthy he has several more Origin matches ahead of him.
Verdict: A few years ago this would have been a close run thing, but I’ll this to Tamou in a split decision.
Interchange – Josh Papalii versus Andrew Fifita
Another close match-up, Papalii has been a fringe Origin player for Queensland (a significant achievement) while Fifita has shown potential in his Origin appearances and was another bright spark in a disappointing 2013 campaign for the Blues.
Like many players, discipline and injuries have cost Fifita Origin appearances. Papalii’s form has been mixed at the Raiders so far this season.
Verdict: Another close match-up but giving this one in a split decision to Fifita based on form this year.
Interchange – Josh McGuire versus David Klemmer
McGuire has gone from strength to strength in his career, pushing Thaiday out of his starting spot at club level. He is unlucky not to be a starter. Klemmer has as much potential as aggression, the latter of which he has yet to fully control.
Verdict: Despite Klemmer’s potential McGuire is a more complete front rower and will have a significant impact off the bench (if he isn’t promoted to starting line-up). Unanimous points decision to McGuire.
Final verdict
Surprisingly there is a lot of parity across the park, with both team’s outside backs a mix of youth and experience, while the front, second row and locks are lining up relatively evenly.
However in the other positions Queensland hold a significant advantage, while it is no surprise that the halves and the hooking position are where Queensland are most dominant (and have been for nearly a decade).
It is the bench which will make a significant difference, in particular the presence of McGuire and Morgan.
Despite a valiant effort I predict a split decision in favour of Queensland (2-1).
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