If you’re anything like myself and the 20-odd guys in the office tipping comp, Origin time turns your rational footy brain into a confused foggy mess that struggles to analyse the sheer number of player ins, outs and new combinations that spring up everywhere.
This mess of new information regrettably turns a few people into tipping zombies reduced to relying on somewhat questionable strategies like “Gotta just go the home teams mate” or “Ah I’ll probably let my three-year-old daughter do it”.
With that in mind, I’ve attempted to take some of the pain out of tipping the NRL during Origin by presenting a few options for strategies that you can rely on during Origin time to help with your tips.
And if absolutely none of them prove reliable (an all too likely possibility) then at least I’ve spared you the pain of having to read team lists and wonder “who the bloody hell are Jahrome Hughes, Jai Arrow and Raymond Faitala Mariner?”
So, in order of least scientific to most (pseudo) scientific, here we go.
Coin flip strategy
If origin round NRL games really are a coin flip, then we may as well the trusty 20 cent piece decide our tips.
Tips: The coin seems to have a bit of a medieval leaning, favouring the Broncos, Dragons, Raiders and Knights.
Numbers missing strategy
The next simplest method is to simply pick the teams with the least disruption to their line-ups since Origin disproportionately punishes strong, in-form teams.
With six regular players missing, the Broncos suffer badly this year, while their opponents, the Tigers, only lose two to Origin. For the purposes of these tipping methods, I’m also going to include James Tedesco in the equations, since he’s clearly the first choice fullback, and it would be stupid to pretend that this ‘out’ didn’t exist.
The Cowboys also give up five to Origin, while the Dragons have only Josh Dugan missing since Tyson Frizell has been cut from the Blues squad by Laurie Daley.
Similarly, Canberra are short only one in Josh Papalii, though given the size of the man, it’s arguable he should count for two regular-sized humans. Over at Belmore, the Dogs are missing two young tyros in Klemmer and Jackson, while their run of Sunday games has seen Will Hopoate get an extended stint on the (Church) bench.
In the least Origin affected game of the round, the Knights lose only Dane Gagai, while Parra are unaffected. Well, as unaffected as you can be when one of your halves pairing is undergoing ongoing medical treatment for mental health issues while the other is apparently doing a live audition for Underbelly: NRL.
Tips: Wests, Dragons, Canberra and Parramatta.
Experience matters strategy
This tipping method adds together the combined NRL games of experience missing because of Origin duty and tips those teams who are less affected.
This year, the Broncos lose a staggering 1153 games of first grade experience, while the Cowboys are next with 823 games of NRL nous missing. In comparison, the other six teams have to fill in between 0 and 419 games.
Looking through past years, there are instances when a team gives up less players than its opponents, but loses more total games of experience because some players have played a disproportionately large amount of games. However, that’s not the case this round, so the tips are identical to the ones above.
Tips: Wests, Dragons, Canberra and Parramatta.
Key man strategy
We hear a lot these days about the “spine” comprised the hooker, halfback, five-eighth and fullback being the most important factor in a winning NRL team. Makes sense: it’s hard to argue with a straight face that a winger is as important as a halfback or five-eighth.
This strategy tips the team with the least “outs” to their spine.
The emerging Origin squad controversy may have been a blessing in disguise for the Broncos with Anthony Milford and Ben Hunt free of any distractions over potential call-ups to the Maroons. The Broncos are missing their fullback, while Wests are actually worse off with their hooker and fullback both out.
The Cowboys are missing two from their spine, while only the number one is missing from the Dragons.
After a horror start, Canberra’s spine is finally mostly present and accounted for, while the arguably the Bulldogs don’t lose much either with Sam Perrett stepping into the fullback role. To avoid tipping a draw, Will Hopoate’s absence is enough to swing this strategy in favour of Canberra.
Dane Gagai has moved to fullback since the start of the season, so his absence for the Knights means that the Eels are favoured using this method, though it’s arguable that Corey Norman could be mentally absent in some sense given the week he’s had.
Tips: Broncos, Cowboys, Canberra, Parramatta.
So there you go, pick whichever strategy makes the most sense to you – I’ll keep track of the results and be back each week before Origin to apply the four methods again.
Got another way of picking winners? Fancy algorithm? Tea leaves? Prodigiously talented tipping octopus? Let us know in the comments below.
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