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When the 2016 AFL fixture was released last October, not one AFL expert would have forecast that the Round 11 clash between Fremantle and Essendon could decide this year’s wooden spoon.
But that will exactly be the case when the bottom two teams on the ladder do battle at Domain Stadium this Saturday night.
Both the Dockers and Bombers have endured difficult seasons so far for contrasting reasons, with the former enduring its worst start to a season since 2001 and the latter being decimated by the suspensions of 12 currently listed players following the ASADA scandal which has been dragging on since early 2013.
After four consecutive finals series, and three consecutive top-four finishes including last year’s minor premiership, the Dockers have crashed and burned to the point where they are currently propping up the ladder after Round 10.
It is a massive cry from this time twelve months ago when the club were enjoying the view from the top of it, having won their first nine games of last season and being in top place from Round 4 onwards.
In addition to being the only winless team nearing the halfway point of this season, the Dockers have won just two of their last 16 matches dating back to their Round 20 loss to the West Coast Eagles last August.
The Dockers’ 0-10 start to the season is also the worst start to a season by any Ross Lyon-coached side, eclipsing the 1-1-5 start by St Kilda in 2011. It was Lyon’s final year at the club before he controversially switched to Fremantle shortly after the Saints’ elimination final loss to the Sydney Swans.
What hasn’t helped the Dockers’ plight so far in 2016 has been a crippling injury toll, with the likes of Aaron Sandilands, reigning Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe, Harley Bennell and captain David Mundy spending some time on the sidelines.
Fyfe is out for the rest of the season after suffering a leg injury against Carlton in Round 5 while Bennell, traded from the Gold Coast Suns at the end of last season won’t feature at all this year due to a calf injury.
It has also been suggested that former captain Matthew Pavlich may have made the wrong decision to go on for one more season, but the man himself has continued to deliver for the Dockers even without the burden of the captaincy for the first time in nearly a decade.
Last week the Dockers were anything but abysmal against the Saints, falling 28 points behind in the first quarter before fighting back in the middle two quarters to lead by three goals deep in the third quarter.
However, Ross Lyon’s men would cough up the final nine goals of the game to go down by 34 points, and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder behind their opponents this Saturday night, Essendon.
While the Dockers have had it tough, the Bombers have had it even tougher with 12 of its current players being sidelined after it was ruled by the Court of Arbitration of Sport in January that they had taken a prohibited substance during the well-documented supplements program that took place in 2012.
That threw newly-appointed coach John Worsfold head first into his biggest challenge in either his playing or coaching career, and that is something the former West Coast Eagles premiership coach has taken with both hands.
Any fears that the Bombers would become the first side since Fitzroy in 1964 to endure a winless season were quickly extinguished in Round 2 when they upset the more heavily favoured Melbourne by 13 points.
While they haven’t won since, they have at least produced some competitive efforts none more so than against the Geelong Cats in Round 4, Carlton in Round 6 plus their second half fightback against North Melbourne in Round 8.
Their heaviest loss for the season so far came against the Sydney Swans in Round 7 when they lost by 81 points, but even in that match the Bombers still took it right up to the Swans, leading at one stage in the second quarter.
They also competed reasonably well against Richmond in last week’s Dreamtime at the G match, trailing by only 14 points at three-quarter-time before capitulating in the final quarter to lose by 38 points.
Now, they have the chance to further rub salt into the Dockers’ wounds and notch up their second win for the season, which would take them two games clear of last year’s minor premiers and possibly a game clear of the 16th-placed Brisbane Lions should they lose to Carlton at Etihad Stadium earlier in the day.
But if recent history is anything to go by, they won’t want to underestimate the wounded and winless Dockers, like they did in 2012 when they went into a game against Melbourne believing they would win, only to lose by six points.
On that occasion, the Bombers were second on the ladder at 8-1 and the Dees were 0-9 and dead last on the ladder; what transpired would be statistically one of the biggest upset wins in recent AFL history.
So, it’s all there for the taking. Can Fremantle finally notch up its first victory for the season and make an unlikely late charge for the finals, or will the Bombers win their second game and leave the Dockers anchored to the bottom of the ladder?
All of us will be watching with intrigue this Saturday night.
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