A tenth series victory in 11 years is on the line for Queensland when they welcome New South Wales to Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night.
Having already won Game 1 in Sydney by the scoreline of 6-4, the Maroons will be out to not only wrap up the series on home soil but also give Corey Parker an early retirement present after it was announced that the Brisbane Broncos captain would hang up the boots at the end of this season.
That will give the Maroons the incentive to win, but they will be aware of a Blues side trying to keep the series alive in enemy territory.
Laurie Daley’s men were far from disgraced in Game 1, losing by only two points after they had suffered a humiliating 52-6 loss in the third and final game at Suncorp Stadium last year.
They will return to the ground for the first time since then, but all the odds will be stacked against them as they look to level the series and force a decider back home at ANZ Stadium in Sydney on July 13.
Not since 2000 have the Blues won a Game II in Brisbane, when they wrapped up the series that year en route to their most recent cleansweep, and not since 1998 have they won a Game II in Brisbane after dropping the opening game in Sydney.
Despite the Game I defeat, coach Daley has stuck with most of the side that went down in Sydney on June 1, with their two changes out of their control: Boyd Cordner and Josh Morris drop out due to injury.
Both Dylan Walker and Greg Bird, who started on the bench in the opening game, will take their places in the starting line-up, while Jack Bird and Tyson Frizell have been named to make their debuts.
Jack Bird has been a revelation for the Sharks since debuting last year and his Origin debut will come in what is only his second season, while Frizell comes in after being 18th man for the past few several games.
Like the Blues, the Maroons’ only change has also come out of their control, with veteran forward Nate Myles to miss just his second Origin game since debuting in 2006 due to a knee injury.
Replacing him in the starting line-up is Josh McGuire, while Warriors warhorse Jacob Lillyman, who was 18th man in the opening game, comes in and will start on the bench.
Let’s now have a look at the two line-ups, and the ins and outs from Game I.
Queensland
Darius Boyd, Corey Oates, Greg Inglis, Justin O’Neill, Dane Gagai, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Matt Scott, Cameron Smith (c), Josh McGuire, Matt Gillett, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker. Interchange: Michael Morgan, Jacob Lillyman, Aidan Guerra, Josh Papalii. 18th man: Ethan Lowe. Coach: Kevin WaltersFrom Game I:
In: Jacob Lillyman
Out: Nate Myles (injured)New South Wales
Matt Moylan, Blake Ferguson, Michael Jennings, Dylan Walker, Josh Mansour, James Maloney, Adam Reynolds, Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah, James Tamou, Greg Bird, Josh Jackson, Paul Gallen (c). Interchange: Jack Bird, Tyson Frizell, David Klemmer, Andrew Fifita. 18th man: Bryce Cartwright. Coach: Laurie DaleyFrom Game I:
In: Jack Bird*, Tyson Frizell*
Out: Josh Morris, Boyd Cordner (both injured).* denotes debutants
Why the Blues will win
For retiring NSW captain Paul Gallen this will be his final match in Brisbane and he will be determined more than most to make a statement against the Queensland supporters who have booed and heckled him throughout his Origin career.
Some acts for which he would earn their ire include engaging in a one-on-one punch with Nate Myles in the opening game of the 2013 series, and calling them “two-heads” in the lead-up to the opening game of the 2014 series.
Thus, it would only be appropriate that he lead his Blues to victory in Game II and silence the 50,000 Queensland fans who made Gallen public enemy number one every time the Blues have played in Brisbane under his captaincy.
While the Blues have had some unhappy recent history at Suncorp Stadium as of recent, they have had their own moments such as winning Game I in 2014, which proved crucial to them winning the series that year, and winning dead rubbers in 2007 and 2009 to avoid being cleanswept in those years.
Thus, winning Game II in Brisbane, something they haven’t done since 2000, will be a non-negotiable if they are to level the series and give themselves the biggest chance of winning the final game in Sydney.
Why the Maroons will win
Two reasons – firstly, the Maroons are at home and will want to use this advantage to wrap up the series, and secondly, they will want to give Corey Parker an early retirement present with a tenth series victory in the past eleven years.
The Queenslanders have also, over the past decade, built a strong record at home and their fans have also added to the atmosphere, making Suncorp Stadium somewhat of a graveyard for the Blues during this time.
If it wasn’t for the injury to Nate Myles, then the Maroons would be unchanged from Game I. Still, despite the forced change that sees Jacob Lillyman come in, expect the Maroons to come out firing as they look to wrap up the series with a game to spare.
The verdict
All the odds will be stacked against New South Wales as they attempt to square the series in front of what is expected to be a crowd of over 50,000 pro-Queensland supporters eager to see their state claim yet another series victory.
While it’s there for the taking for the Maroons, they will be keen not to repeat the same mistake from twelve months ago, when they dropped the second game at the MCG when a victory would’ve put them in the box seat to complete the whitewash in Brisbane.
In saying that, a loss for the Maroons at home could see the Blues enter the deciding game in Sydney in three weeks with all the momentum.
While they will start as red-hot favourites, Kevin Walters’ men must be focused from the very start on the task at hand and any trace of complacency will be punished by a New South Wales side determined to square the series.
In the end, the Maroons’ experience, home support and strong home ground record will see them wrap up another Origin series by Wednesday night.
Prediction
Queensland by 20 points.
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