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Yes, we’re back. After a month off, Super Rugby is here, refreshed and ready to reignite on the run home to the playoffs.
As it currently stands, ten teams remain in the hunt for a finals berth, and from this weekend, teams can start cementing their places, or losing touch completely.
Here are the talking points for Round 15.
Who’s the first contender to drop off?
When I started the forward projection exercise, we had 12 teams still in the hunt. Since then we’ve put the red pen through the Blues and Rebels.
With three games left to play, you might think we’ll lose another team after this round of matches, but mathematically speaking, it might not be so clear.
For example, if the Bulls lose to the Jaguares – and at the time, The Crowd was split right down the middle on this one – then their job of qualifying would certainly be made difficult. But if the Lions were to beat the Sharks, then the Bulls’ narrow gap back from the Sharks for the African wildcard spot would remain in place.
Of course, if the Bulls won and Sharks lost, then the Bulls jump into the top eight. But equally, if the Bulls lose and the Sharks upset the Lions, then the Bulls are probably done for 2016.
What’s interesting here is that the Sharks and Bulls both play the Cheetahs and Sunwolves in their final two games. So it’s entirely possible that wherever they sit on the table by Sunday afternoon is where they’ll stay.
Can the Lions launch a tilt on top spot?
Oh, definitely. And maybe even this weekend. A win this weekend over the Sharks, and with the Stormers no certainties to win in Melbourne will give them at least one hand on top spot in the African conference and a top two position.
But before that, the Lions will be milling around the TV in their full Chiefs kit, cheering the team they beat in Hamilton in Round 2 home as they take on the Crusaders in historic Super Rugby match in Suva.
Should the Chiefs beat the Crusaders, and the Lions beat the Sharks, then both teams will move to 46 points. Bonus points can’t be completely discounted, but would seem a difficult task in both matches.
And so as long as the Chiefs don’t bridge the 30-differential-point gap the Lions currently hold, both teams moving to 46 points would see the Lions take top spot. Both teams would be on ten wins in that case, and so points differential becomes the next step in the tie-breaking process.
And as interesting and properly hypothetical aside, if this was the final round and both teams did finish on 46 points, if the Chiefs did manage to bridge the gap but not gain a bonus point, then there isn’t a whole lot between the Chiefs and Lions in either of the next two tie-breaking steps. There’s tries scored, and the difference between tries scored and tries conceded.
The fifth step in the tie-breaker is…? A coin toss!
So if the Lions finished the weekend in top spot, their final games are the Kings at Ellis Park, and the Jaguares in Buenos Aires. They’ve lost their skipper Warren Whitely for the rest of the Super Rugby season, probably, cruelly, but if they can grab hold of top spot, they might be hard to shift.
Nuisance value?
I’m looking firmly at a couple of primary colours when I think about this.
The Queensland Reds have named arguably their strongest forward pack of the season to take on the Brumbies in Canberra tonight, and then they host the Chiefs in Brisbane next week before playing the Rebels in the final round.
Wouldn’t the Reds love nothing more than to be a proper pain in the arse for a couple of seemingly finals-bound teams?
And I think the Brumbies should be nervous tonight, really nervous. They resume Super Rugby without David Pocock, Ita Vaea, and Jordan Smiler, and with Brisbane City NRC lock Ben Hyne on Super Rugby debut playing at no.8. He has been a standout for Tuggeranong in the ACT Premier Rugby comp, to be fair. But as a lock.
A Reds pack really only missing Rob Simmons, and with Kane Douglas and Leroy Houston coming off the bench will not be easybeats, by any stretch.
The Blues will fancy their chances in the Capital against the Hurricanes, and their run home includes dates with the Brumbies and Waratahs at Eden Park. Anyone seriously giving them no chance at all in any of those games?
Now think about the impact losing even just one of the last three could have on any of the aforementioned playoff contenders.
The Rebels could have something to say in 2016 yet, too. With nothing buy pride and Tony McGahan’s 2017 favour to play for, they could make things tough for the Stormers and the Crusaders over the next week.
It’s been a while since we’ve had a genuine upset in Super Rugby. I reckon we’ll see at least one in these last three rounds.
Dress rehearsals start in the west
For a considerable number of Western Force players, these last three round represent a three-week audition for the rest of their Super Rugby career. With Michael Foley a June International window victim, and the ARU taking over the reins, everything the Force do for the rest of this season will be about opportunity.
Caretaker coach Dave Wessels wants the job in 2017, and after an apprenticeship in the NRC, including a Final in 2014, he’ll be trying to prove he’s ready to take the next step permanently.
A number of players have already made their intentions to move on clear, and there is certainly mail floating around about Kyle Godwin being ear-marked for Matt Toomua’s jersey at the Brumbies.
But for plenty of players left, and plenty of young player left, these last three games represent a massive chance to prove they have what it takes. And that might just make them a dangerous team over the remaining rounds.
Jono Lance’s imminent return can’t come soon enough. If they can knock off the Cheetahs for their first win in South Africa since they also beat the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein in 2014, I’ll be very surprised if Lance hasn’t played a key role. I’ll be hugely impressed surprised if Lance hasn’t played a key role, in fact.
Just making history, what are you doing this weekend?
A massive shout out to Australian referee Amy Perrett, who will make history when she picks up the assistant referees flag at this weekend’s clash between the Rebels and Stormers in Melbourne, becoming the first woman in the 21-year history of Super Rugby to do so.
Perrett is a product of the ARU’s Referee Pathways program and recently was announced as one of Australia’s two officiating representatives at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games.
She’s no stranger to big match pressure, either; Perrett has previously refereed Finals of Women’s Sevens tournaments, the Women’s Rugby World Cup Final. and the Women’s Six Nations major derby between England and France.
Good luck to her. And enjoy your rugby this weekend.