What is not to love about this AFL season?
At least six sides still have claims to flag contention and a final eight declared sealed by some commentators even before the halfway mark of the season now lies slightly ajar. Every came is vital and even the slightest slip-up can be season defining.
Round 18 is shaping as the pinnacle of the regular season with none of the matches involving top-8 sides appearing to be shoe-ins and even some of the lower profile games holding some importance.
Here is a breakdown of each of the matches and their importance for the clubs involved.
Collingwood versus North Melbourne
Although it would take a miracle for Collingwood to now reach the finals, their recent improvement in form and their remaining matches could hold significant importance for future opponents.
Collingwood’s pressure appears to be back with the Magpies winning the tackle count in each of their last four matches, including a combined differential of plus 52 in their last two. Despite a win putting Collingwood within two games of North Melbourne, their poor percentage means that they would still likely three more wins than North Melbourne to overtake them.
On the flip side, North Melbourne are in freefall. The Kangaroos need a win to sure up their finals position and just as importantly, to remind themselves that they can be a decent side.
Lose and they could be just one game inside the eight with matches against St Kilda, the Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Sydney and GWS to come.
Prediction: Collingwood by 10 points
Sydney versus Carlton
Sydney will enter all matches remaining as favourites with only one being against a current top-eight team (North Melbourne) and cannot be dislodged from the top-four so long as they remain undefeated.
Sydney simply must come to Saturday’s game switched on. By contrast, Carlton will not play finals in 2016, but have a nice opportunity to test themselves against quality opposition away from home. The Blues displayed some excellent spirit against the West Coast Eagles, but the Swans at the SCG is a must tougher task.
Prediction: Sydney by 40
Gold Coast versus Fremantle
Nothing to see here in terms of finals. Gold Coast are again crippled by injuries and have been resigned to hope against the team that they upset in Round 2. Similarly, Fremantle will be out to find out how they can prepare for a better 2017. Backing up their improved performance against Geelong last round in order to gain some momentum heading into next year would be valuable.
Prediction: Fremantle by 20
West Coast versus Melbourne
Just when we thought that West Coast had got their act together by defeating North Melbourne at Domain Stadium, another unconvincing performance away has raised serious questions. The Eagles find themselves with a chance to be in the top-four by Sunday night, playing a team who they should beat.
If they can’t get up, a top-four finish suddenly looks unlikely with a challenging final three games against GWS (away), Hawthorn (home) and Adelaide (away). Melbourne’s decent percentage means that pending some highly favourable results which would include an acceleration of North Melbourne’s fall and the failure of Port Adelaide or St Kilda to rise, they could be playing finals.
The Demons would need to win games such as their difficult fixture on the weekend to have any chance of September action, especially when you consider Hawthorn (home) and Geelong (away) awaiting them on the run home.
Prediction – West Coast by 35
Western Bulldogs versus St Kilda
The Western Bulldogs have a task on their hands to tackle a St Kilda side fresh off of an impressive win against Melbourne. Should they win and Adelaide lose, the Bulldogs will find themselves in the enviable position of being a game inside the top two.
However, the Bulldog’s poor showing against Richmond brought against St Kilda’s strong Etihad Stadium form could create an upset. The Saints are actually a chance to snatch a top-8 spot simply because of a reasonable draw to follow and the patches of scintillating football they displayed against Melbourne.
Should they upset the Dogs on Saturday night they will find themselves just a win outside the eight with an important game against their prey, North Melbourne, to follow. If everything goes right, the Saints could be in the eight in three weeks’ time.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 155
Geelong versus Adelaide
Undoubtedly, the game to watch in the round of the year.
Two and a half weeks ago, Geelong were unbeatable at home and had a great record against fellow top-eight sides. however following a shock loss to Sydney at Simmonds Stadium and a rather poor victory over Fremantle away, significant questions over the Cats’ poorly functioning midfield and forward line, both of which have shown themselves to be over reliant Patrick Dangerfield, have been raised.
A win on Saturday could place Geelong among five or six teams each with 12 wins separated by percentage and give the Cats a box seat for top-four with a seemingly smooth draw.
Adelaide claimed a top-two spot with their eighth consecutive win last round, however they have arguably not played their best football against quality opposition since their pre-bye upset of West Coast in Round 12.
If they enter the clash against the last team who beat them unprepared, they could find themselves seventh, but a big win would see them second at worst. With their greatest challenges being the Showdown and West Coast (home), a win would put them in an almost unbackable position for the top-4 and a real chance to solidify their top-2 credentials.
Prediction: Adelaide by 10
Essendon versus Brisbane
Forget finals here – coach sackings, wooden spoons and number one draft picks are at stake. If Brisbane lose, they will likely achieve all three, while a loss for Essendon will grant them the latter two. A win for either would be moral boosting at most and give their supporters a week-long reprieve.
Prediction: Essendon by 20
Hawthorn versus Richmond
Hawthorn are a game clear on top of the ladder and realistically could probably afford to drop a game without risking their top-four credentials, however a poor performance may allow other teams to gain some insight into stopping the Hawks juggernaut for the Premiership.
On the other side, Richmond are essentially four wins outside the eight and although mathematically a chance, their team selections of late have demonstrated that their priorities are apparently in 2017.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 50
Port Adelaide versus Greater Western Sydney
Another game with a large bearing on finals, Port would fancy themselves at home against a GWS side with questions still hanging over them from the Collingwood loss.
A win to the Power and a loss to North Melbourne would see them one game outside of the eight. However, to do so, the Power need to consistently deliver good football, something which they have struggled with so far. On the other hand, GWS are very much in the mix for a top-four finish and win against Port would solidify their chances with a run home that could be both the making or undoing of the young side, with ‘8-point games’ against West Coast (home) and North Melbourne (away) still to come.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 10
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