It has been well documented over the years that it is extremely difficult for a team to win the premiership if they do not finish inside the top four.
The stats back it up; Adelaide is the only team to have done it, back in 1998.
But with the log-jam in the top eight in 2016 that has seen North Melbourne plummet from first to eighth, and Geelong move from premiership favourites to struggling for a top six finish, 2016 is highly competitive across the board.
As the top four stands, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and GWS are all in prime position. But wins to Geelong, Sydney and West Coast could mean that three of the top four teams change, while Adelaide could realistically rise to first place or drop to seventh.
With the constant fluctuations occurring, one can only conclude that there is not a significant difference between first and seventh or eighth, and any team can beat another on any given day.
So what are the chances of a team outside the top four winning the flag?
Naturally, it is a very tough task as they would have to win four consecutive games, being the away team in the majority of them. Winning from outside the top six is even tougher, as they would not play a home game for the entire finals series.
Everyone knows the issues West Coast have playing away from Perth, especially at the MCG. No team could expect an easy match against them, but the Eagles are unlikely to manage to make the big one.
GWS, in my opinion, are too young and inexperienced this season to genuinely contend. That said, they score at will and again, no team will relish playing them.
Geelong, currently seventh, are the best team in the competition when they are playing their best football. If they can secure a top six finish, they are as likely to win the premiership as anyone.
North Melbourne have shown that, on their day, if healthy, they are among the elite, but are too old and slow in my opinion to challenge, especially if they have to travel interstate.
Adelaide and the Bulldogs are both extremely tough to beat on their home grounds, although the Bulldogs probably would not play at Etihad. Hawthorn and Sydney are the models of consistency that all AFL teams crave to emulate, and can beat any team on any given night, regardless of where they are playing.
A team outside the top four can very realistically expect to win the flag, and be disappointed if they fail to do so. While it is one of the toughest tasks in sport in Australia, if any year it is to happen, I believe 2016 is that year.
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