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The AFL’s modern Cinderella story reaches a climax, as the Western Bulldogs deny any semblance of football logic to face the Swans. Here’s why they will win it all.
This isn’t supposed to be happening. The Dogs were an injury-riddled mess and lost to the hapless Fremantle Dockers in Round 23 of the home-and-away season. Since then, they have reeled off three victories of increasingly impressive magnitude – not so much in margin but in method.
Footscray have started as underdogs in each of their finals, and will almost certainly be over-the-odds at the bounce today. Should they win, the sharps tell me it would be the first time a team has won four straight games coming in as the underdog in at least 14 years. The last team to win three in a row as an underdog was Adelaide in 2012, and they were only the fifth team to do it in over 300 AFL games. This isn’t supposed to be happening.
Yet here we are, with the Western Bulldogs in the last game of the year, confirming last year’s rise to finals from 14th on the ladder was no fluke. Head coach Luke Beveridge has built a system that makes the most of his squad’s depth, and allows those players with freakish talents to do their thing when it’s appropriate.
In finals weeks one and two, the Dogs swarmed their way to success, overwhelming the Eagles and Hawks at the contest and spreading with quick handball chains. When it works, the Dogs create oodles of open space to run into. They smacked West Coast and Hawthorn in contested possession differential by 22 and 50 respectively, and from there it was a matter of making the most of their territory battle.
It was a different story against the Giants, whom could match them at the contest. The Dogs had 223 kicks to 169 handballs, where they’re usually almost square in their method of disposal. Footscray were focussed on territory – keeping the ball out of GWS’ dangerous forward line at all costs. It proved effective, if remarkably laborious: the Dogs had 68 inside 50s compares to the Giants’ 45, but won by just six points.
Beveridge has shown in his near-two year tenure that he’s not afraid to shake things up tactically, and indeed we’ve seen that in this finals series. That’s why the Swans should be afraid.
Sydney was able to overwhelm the Cats in their preliminary final due to Geelong’s lack of depth. Where Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker, Tom Mitchell, Dan Hannebery and Kieran Jack were able to snuff out the Dangerwood-fuelled Geelong fire, they will have many more balls in the air against Beveridge’s Dogs.
There’s little doubt the Swans have the better players, but by the same token there is little doubt the Dogs bat deeper. In an attritional grand final, that counts firmly in their favour.
Both Sydney and the Western Bulldogs like to play with pace, and what isn’t clear is how this will mesh with each team’s forward and defensive lines.
Sydney have had the best defence in the competition, bar none. But the Dogs don’t play a traditional forward set up, at least not in this finals series. The born-again Clay Smith is tied with Tory Dickson on seven goals for the ‘Scrays, Liam Picken has kicked five, and Marcus Botempelli and Jake Stringer have kicked four.
Million dollar key forward Tom Boyd has laid a goose egg (which isn’t a criticism of his performance – he’s been immense in almost everything he’s done). In all, 15 of the Dogs’ 25 players have booted majors, and all bar six have hit the scoreboard in some capacity.
Lance Franklin will be a handful, and he has tended to carve up the Dogs in recent times (averaging 3.4 goals per game and 17 touches over his career, and just under five goals and 18 touches since joining the Swans – hat tip to Cam Rose for that second tidbit). But otherwise, the Dogs will back their fleet of mid sized defenders to stop almost every other avenue to goal lurking in Sydney’s forward line.
But at a more ethereal level, there’s just something about the Dogs this season. They have been counted out twice, and have been able to push on through injury-driven adversity as extreme as any team in recent times. They have six players with season-ending injuries, and have also lost Matthew Suckling to an achy Achilles tendon in the final third of the season.
The Dogs lost Lin Jong early doors against the Eagles, and Jordan Roughead similarly early in their preliminary final. Health is a skill, but it is also luck, and despite scoring negative one billion on the injury luck-o-metre in 2016, here we are.
This week marks the first time the Dogs have been unchanged since Round 2. Something other worldly is happening sports fans.
The support the Western Bulldogs have garnered in their finals run has been phenomenal. Thursday’s open training session saw what can only be described as “a lot of people” attend Whitten Oval to watch the team go to work.
Amazing scenes at the Whitten Oval ahead of the @westernbulldogs taking the ground for last session before the Grand Final. pic.twitter.com/aAF2jvGW0C
— Glenn McFarlane (@MaccaHeraldSun) September 29, 2016
I happen to think the AFL fan world will get sick of the Doggies’ schtick soon, but for now, everyone is behind them. President Peter Gordon embraced the “everyone’s second team” love fest, and it has probably played a role in helping the Dogs overcome their adversity.
Finally, they will win because they have the best of the two Herald Sun front page cartoons. It’s a statistically proven indicator of success.
Legendary @Knightcartoons with his 2016 masterpiece! Premiers posters such an iconic part of #AFLGF Good luck @westernbulldogs @sydneyswans pic.twitter.com/tEz1oudurU
— Archie Bañez (@ABanez_31) September 27, 2016
That’s my case for the under-Dogs. Something special is happening people. Embrace it.(Click to Tweet)