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There’s never any hard and fast rule about team selections. One man’s views on form can just as easily mirror the next guy’s views on favouritism and protected species.
It can never be black and white, and there’s never, ever full agreement.
But there will always be debate, and debate around Wallabies selection is a daily occurrence.
This week will be no different, with the Wallabies losing to South Africa in Pretoria in a performance that promised so much early, yet delivered so little in the end.
All the wash-up from Springboks vs Wallabies:
» SPIRO: Wallabies lost to back-to-the-future Boks
» LORD: Steyn’s boot sinks wasteful Wallabies
» Who should replace Sean McMahon?
» Five talking points
» What changes should the Wallabies make for Argentina?
On reflection, it was an 80-minute illustration of the Wallabies’ 2016 form.
There were many reasons the Wallabies lost this game. Israel Folau’s performance was not primary among that long list.
But Folau’s disappointing performance at Loftus comes in a position where there are other quality options available.
And if the precedent Michael Cheika has set for himself with his lock and blindside selections in 2016 truly means anything, he’ll make the tough call on Folau.
So far in 2016, Cheika has at different points dropped Rob Simmons, Sam Carter, Kane Douglas, Scott Fardy and Will Skelton, all on the basis of form and spoke publicly of the decisions.
He’s actually dropped Simmons twice this season, the first time clarifying that it was actually form and not a back injury that led to his omission from the second Test team against England in June.
“Any player that is left out is not happy, obviously,” Cheika said of the Simmons decision at the time.
“But that’s the challenge for him to improve and get his spot back, like all players who are left out of the team. That’s the nature of rugby and has been for ever. Some guys get picked and it’s how you react accordingly.”
When he dropped Fardy to the bench for the second Bledisloe Test, and then dropped him completely for the next match against South Africa in Brisbane, he raised the topic of competition within the squad.
“As you can see, our team’s changing, and what we’ve always said we’d do is bring guys in from underneath, bring a few blokes back, squeeze from the top and put the competition into the middle tier. I’ve worked off that formula before and that’s what we’re trying to do now,” Cheika said.
“At the end of the day that competition for places is the best driver for performance.”
It was a similar story when Douglas was left out, which coincidentally led to a recall for Simmons.
“Everyone is crying about us having no depth so we are taking steps to create some. There’s a challenge from the younger brigade but we also want our experienced guys to improve their games,” Cheika explained.
“More competition equals more depth.”
When Cheika dropped Fardy, he made reference to the Simmons decision, and when he dropped Douglas he continued that logic.
“If that standard applied to Scott Fardy, it’s got to apply to Kane and it’s up to him to take it from here.”
So it will make discussions around the selection table in London this week interesting.
You don’t have to look at the stats sheet to know that Folau was outpointed by pretty much every Wallabies back on the field in Pretoria.
Folau’s ten minutes in the sin bin – for an infringement he’s developed a bit of form in over the last 18 months or so – allowed Dane Haylett-Petty to show how good an option he’d be when wearing the no.15 jersey.
In the second half, it was noticeable that the ‘Boks actually kicked straight to Folau when he was back in place at fullback, for the simple reason that they didn’t really feel threatened by him. If Folau kicked back to them, he never turned them around, and if he ran it back, he was well contained.
Folau’s overall strike rate as an international player is pretty handy; a try every two or three games. But after scoring 17 of his 20 Test tries in his first 26 matches, he’s only scored three since in the last two seasons.
Right at the moment, he’s just not the threat he once was, and you have to wonder if this sometimes forward-sometimes back hybrid 13/15 game he’s playing is affecting him.
Cheika speaks of wanting to re-light the fire in bellies by dropping players. He talks about how he’s not afraid to use the NRC for dropped Wallabies to find form; Simmons, Fardy, and Skelton, as well as Ben McCalman have all been told to find form there.
You have to wonder if that will now apply to Folau, too.
I don’t for a minute think Folau will be dropped back to the NRC, but my point stands.
Cheika has a ready-made replacement at fullback ready to go and already showing some pretty decent form now. And with Sefanaia Naivalu, Henry Speight, and Luke Morahan waiting in the wings, there’s no shortage of options there either.
Moving Folau to the right wing is also an obvious alternative, but I’m not sure that would send as strong a message as leaving him out for a Test or two would.
Folau has never been dropped since switching to rugby, but even Cheika has spoken this season of the importance of no-one taking Wallabies selection for granted.
“The minute someone feels like he is guaranteed selection, he is never going to perform,” Cheika said back in June, when asked if Simmons’ axing meant no-one was safe.
This isn’t about finding a scapegoat.
There’s no argument about Folau’s immense talent, nor is this about whether he is or isn’t a world-class player.
Regardless of where you think he fits in such subjective measures, even the best players in the game go through form slumps.
Folau would know he’s a long way from his best currently. There’s no shame in Cheika admitting it.(Click to Tweet)