It’s the final weekend of The Rugby Championship, and the All Blacks are lining up to equal an international rugby winning streak that conveniently ignores the actual international rugby winning streak.

Behind them, the Springboks, Pumas, and Wallabies can all finish second. There’s plenty to play for in all cases, and varying levels of desperation in all camps.

But what if the All Blacks lost this weekend? Could it happen?

Big Questions, all of them. Probably worth tackling then, I’d reckon.

The Big Question(s): When will the All Blacks ever lose again? When will they lose next? Who will they lose to, next? (from Harry)

Nobes: “Well, the first part of the question is fairly easy and the answer is yes.

“The second part is a bit more difficult, as it is highly probable they may not lose until the next Rugby World Cup.

“However, they might encounter a rare game if they happen to face a foul field, three red cards, use up all the bench and have two injured players that are impossible to be replaced. Of course, I am just thinking about weird and improbable conditions.

“Under normal circumstances it will be very difficult for any of the nations to beat them by the way they are currently playing. In my opinion the only team capable to defeat them is England, at home and in a rare game.

“For me the question should be more about when they will no longer be the dominant force in world rugby. Even if they happen to lose a game or two I do not foresee them removed from the top of the world.

“While all the other power houses are weakening due to their own domestic problems, the All Blacks are getting stronger because the entire nation has taken rugby as the country flagship around the world and all the parties involved are doing an awesome job about it.

“Take Mr. Hansen for example, he has been with All Blacks for sixteen years elbow to elbow with all the previous coaches before taking command. Now compare the same situation with Australia, South, Africa, England, France, Argentina, etc.

“New Zealand Rugby Union is well aware that their players are going to be lured abroad by high salaries, so they have taken the necessary arrangements to cope with this threat. They have developed a culture and a system to keep the best ones to play for the All Blacks and neutralise the exile of many others. Thus, the only way that this era of All Blacks dominance may only end if they make a mistake in their own strategy, or if they go into some type of internal turmoil that could damage what they are constantly building.

“I do not see the other countries going into the right direction in order to present any sort of challenge in the near future. And the ones that have thought of a strategy are just playing catch up; it will be a long time before they become a challenge for the All Blacks.”

Harry: “In an interview with City Press this week, former Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer described the challenge in beating the All Blacks.

“He spoke about Steve Hansen going to the next World Cup in Japan with 16 years of experience with the team to illustrate Kiwi continuity of structure, the high quality of Hansen’s assistants, NZRU central contracting, superb set pieces and restarts, the best kicking game that applies and withstands pressure (“they kick the ball to get it back; they kick on you until you kick badly, then they punish you”), and an aggressive press defence that relies on their superior squad fitness (“they are by far the fittest team in the world”).

“I would add that with ball-in-play at its highest percentage in rugby history, the style of game has markedly come to favour the All Blacks, and their “trade-three-for-five” tactic hasn’t really got an antidote unless foes match their fitness and ability to play at or over the offside line en masse.

“OK, so will they ever lose? Yes.

“When? Well, after Durban this week, 2016 does not look that difficult. France is not the France of old. Chicago is not Dublin. Rome is not even Chicago. And for Bledisloe 3, Michael Cheika’s plans seem to be already written in Hansen’s head.

“In 2017 we hear the roar of the mighty Lions, but that seems like a situation where we’ll see the All Blacks’ very best, which is always good enough. If the All Blacks lose in this decade, it’s mostly been at the end of a tough run, not in the beginning. So, the 2017 Rugby Championship might not yield an All Black scalp, either.

“This version of the All Blacks might be the best-balanced, most cohesive ever. So, only the team that beats them the most (the Boks) is likely to beat them, even if this is a young and poorly-coached Bokling outfit.

“But there’s a reason it’s hard to break a world record. It’s hard because it’s hard.

“You read it here, first. A suddenly calmer, more composed Springbok team will beat New Zealand this week in Durban, in a bit of rain, with a late kick by a kicker who can kick.”

Digger: “Easy. NEVER! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Brett’s note: I think we might’ve just got an insight into the real Digger…

“In all seriousness, the ‘streak’ record has stood for some time and every time New Zealand seems to be ready to give it a good shake, one of the two opponents coming up in the next few weeks seems to crash the party. This seems to be a very different and motivated All Black side however and certainly there is nothing, form wise, to suggest South Africa or Australia can stop them this time though.

“I admittedly have little handle on how the Northern opponents are shaping up later this year either but it doesn’t seem unreasonable to think that the All Blacks will not drop a game there either.

“So, I am going to go out on a limb here and suggest the biggest threat will be the British and Irish Lions next year, and that another unbeaten season looms in 2016… cue Harry’s ‘Boklings’ and the end of the Eden Park jinx right there, making Machooka do handstands.

“Hell, Ireland will win now too, making Pot Hale possibly the happiest (and drunkest) person in the world, and perhaps even the French will emulate the English from 2012, allowing Nickoldschool to enjoy his croissants. I don’t know any Italians.

“Nah, kidding, should be sweet. (Sweating, a little).”

Brett: Easy. In a fortnight in Auckland. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! (That’s how this works, right?)

It’s a really good question, and I tend to agree with Digger than an unbeaten 2016 looms for New Zealand. Which should be enough for Kiwi Roarers to start feeling very nervous, at the very least. There’s a moral victory right there.

They shouldn’t have trouble in Durban this weekend, and similarly, you’d think having gone this far, they won’t be slipping up at Eden Park now. None of Ireland, Italy, and France stick out as genuine challengers, either.

I think it will be England at Twickenham later next season, and not the British and Irish Lions, to pose the biggest threat. And this will sound like the sort of thing you’d expect to hear in the RFU boardroom, but it will be because the England team won’t have to worry about being watered down by the Irish, Welsh, or Scots!

I mean that in the nicest possible way, of course, but the other element central to this is that no coach in world rugby is more single-mindedly focused on one goal than Eddie Jones.

Eddie would sacrifice the 2017 Six Nations and every other Test between now and then if it means he can beat New Zealand. The All Blacks next year are Eddie’s new South Africa; beating the All Blacks will be priorities 1-5 and most of the next ten on the list, too.

Tips

Week 5: Nobes, Harry, and The Crowd 2, Digger and Brett 1

Nobes: “Before going to my tips and since these are the last two Rugby Championship games for 2016, I would like to thank Brett, the other panellists, and The Roar for giving me the chance to participate on this edition. It has been fun and a true honour. I also like to give special thanks to everyone that contributed at the forum with great comments week after week in the 2016 edition of The Rugby Championship.”

Brett’s note: Very nice of you to say Nobes, and you’ve been a welcome addition. But we’re not quite done yet!

“I think the All Blacks are in another dimension nowadays and will have no problem taking over a brave Springbok team.

“And just to break a possible tie among the panel I will go for the Pumas over the Wallabies in London.”

Harry: “Australia’s marginally better depth than Argentina’s dwindling player stocks and beat-up squad should win the Twickenham rematch. The Pumas have travelled the most, carried the most (three heavy forwards have carried 190 times cumulatively), run the closest support lines, and tended to finish games with a whimper. Australia’s superior fitness levels should see them home, but the Wallaby pack will need to improve on the Pretoria showing (their lineout and scrum lost the plot in the second half).

“The ‘Boks will win because they are at home, and now playing under a captain in top form at a crucial position, with five lineout jumpers, no second half swoon from lack of fitness, a fullback who loves Kings Park, and oh, yes, a flyhalf who calms the team down.

“South Africa’s ‘new’ flyhalf started his test career beating the British and Irish Lions and the All Blacks (three times in a year). In 347 top grade rugby matches, he’s averaged almost ten points a game, and as a 65-test Bok flyhalf, he averages 11.09 points a game. He won the Under 21 World Championship, he’s won three Super Rugby titles (he kicked four drop goals against the Crusaders in a semi-final), a Tri-Nations title, a Top 14 championship, two Currie Cups, and sealed the series win over the British & Irish Lions with a 54 metre dagger.

“He holds the record for successful kicks in a row: 41. He once scored 31 points against New Zealand in a Test. That was played in Durban.

“His name is Morne, and he is entitled to a little respect, even if ‘all he does is make kicks.’ Behind him is Pat Lambie, the last All Black-beating kicker.

“All we need is a few misses by ‘BBBBBBBB’, a misfiring All Black lineout, and an interception or two. Self-delusion is the key to happiness.”

Digger: “New Zealand will have noted the Boks improved performance and certainly will not squander the chances the Wallabies did the week before, so the All Blacks will scrap it out and pull away towards the end.

“And I think Australia will win in London after a bit of a touch up from last weeks missed opportunity, and also because the Pumas seem to have a number of injury concerns heading into this encounter.”

Brett: I would quite like Harry Jones to be right this week, because I reckon The Crowd will pro-Pumas this week, and that would mean Jones swoops in for the win. Wouldn’t that be something.

But on the off chance he’s wrong, then I want a share of the title myself.

So New Zealand is an easy pick to start with, and then I think there were enough signs in that first 20-30 minutes to stick with the Wallabies at Twickers. I think that period of play was the first real signs of the Mick Byrne influence; that high-tempo, rapid ball-movement in traffic has very obvious AFL roots, and it’s exactly what comes to mind when you think of the All Blacks’ skill base.

They had a pretty decent run on this track this time last year, so they’ll be back in familiar surrounds, and as long as they can sort out the lineout, and the attacking breakdown, and the bench gives some impact, and no-one spends any time in the bin for silly infringements, and… yeah, should be easy.

The Summary

The verdict
The voting this week was just crazy. More than 570 responses received, a record for The Rugby Championship tipping panel, and the Argentina-Australia vote was the closest ever. In the end, the Wallabies won out by just three votes! Outstanding, thanks everyone who lodged a tip.

Final margins:

89.5% New Zealand
50.3% Australia