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Why the Brisbane Broncos won't make the top eight

22nd February, 2017
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Ben Hunt is back from Queensland Cup exile - but for how long? (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)
Expert
22nd February, 2017
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There are plenty of issues at the Brisbane Broncos, who were knocked out of last year’s finals by the North Queensland Cowboys, but they are ready to explode in the upcoming season and it will likely spell disaster for one of the most successful clubs in the NRL.

I realise that by writing this article, I won’t be able to show my face in Queensland for the next twelve months (or until I am proven right – whichever comes first), but here goes.

The Brisbane Broncos will not make the top eight in 2017.

There, I said it. But why? Why would a club who have supercoach Wayne Bennett at the helm and enough talent across the field to compete with the best of them last season not make the finals?

It’s bordering on scary for Brisbane fans to think it, but Bennett’s years are starting to fly past him. There is no question of his talent and he might still be one of the best man-managers in the game, a skill any coach needs to have, but others are rising up and taking the mantra as best coach in the game.

When in Brisbane, Bennett has always had one of the strongest rosters in the competition and credit to him, he has made it work.

You only need to look at his amazing record to know exactly how well he has done and how lucky the Broncos have been to have him onboard all these years. His record speaks for itself, with a career winning percentage of 62 and seven grand final wins from eight attempts in 30 seasons.

Brisbane Broncos coach Wayne Bennett gives directions during training

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It’s the best record in Australian rugby league history bar none, and his influence over the Broncos and, indeed, the St George Illawarra Dragons and Newcastle Knights when he moved away from the Sunshine State, has been incredible.

But Bennett’s impact is starting to fade. It’s debatable if he is the best coach in the game anymore and this year will be pivotal if he is to keep that tag anywhere near him. This may be his biggest challenge since arriving at the Knights.

As much as some won’t want to admit exactly how important the role of a coach is in the modern game, it’s the reason teams like the Melbourne Storm have been at the top of the ladder year after year. Yes, the players have to be special, but the coach still needs to bring that all together and get the best out men who never met their potential at other clubs.

Players like Dale Finucane are a testament to that. Craig Bellamy has always had the key elements – Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater – but he has had youngsters and a band of players hit standards above what anyone thought they were capable of at other clubs.

No matter how good Bennett’s record is, the cavalry is simply not as strong as it once was. The loss of Corey Parker is going to be brutal, and with issues in forwards depth and half combinations, the Broncos’ season looks on the ropes before it has even begun.

But it’s the halves that look to be the biggest problem.

Ben Hunt, who has already signed with the St George Illawarra Dragons for 2018, had a poor 2016 season by his standards and struggled for consistency, something Bennett normally gets from everyone who puts on a Broncos jersey.

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While Hunt is playing alongside Anthony Milford, who will be pushing his case for State of Origin, Hunt is supposed to control the game with his kicking and directing the side around the park. He failed to do that job for the majority of last season and while the Broncos did make the finals, they were well below their best.

Broncos player Anthony Milford

Hunt has never recovered from dropping the kick-off that cost Brisbane the 2016 grand final, and while he may improve this year, the impending move to the Dragons isn’t going to win him any favours with Bennett or his teammates.

If Hunt struggled to control his side on the back of a strong forward pack last year, improvement is going to be a tough thing to achieve during this campaign with a different pack.

While Andrew McCullogh will still lead the charge from hooker and Josh McGuire will have a bigger role than ever, there are elements of inexperience in the pack and the depth coming from the bench looks shallow with Joe Ofahengaue, Tevita Pangai Junior and Herman Ese’Ese likely to be in the best 17.

That’s going to make Hunt’s role more important than it was last season. That’s even more so the case with the Broncos’ incredibly talented backline, led by Corey Oates, James Roberts and new skipper Darius Boyd.

If they don’t have the field position to work their magic, though, it again falls on Hunt’s kicking game to get them through.

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It’s not just issues with their best 17 that are going to derail the Broncos, though. State of Origin will once again be a killer, with Sam Thaiday, Matt Gillett and Darius Boyd all certainties and others in line for a call-up.

Darius Boyd of the Brisbane Broncos celebrates

Losing all those players with the Broncos’ depth this year is once again going to turn the pressure up on Bennett to work miracles, but what’s different about this season is that Brisbane may not enter the representative season in a strong position on the ladder. In fact, they probably won’t.

That the Broncos competed in the World Club Series, where they put on an unconvincing display with a near full-strength line-up against Warrington, doesn’t bode well for their NRL campaign.

No team has ever won the premiership after travelling to England, but it will be a lot worse than that for Brisbane this season.

Given they start the NRL season against the Sharks, Cowboys, Storm, Raiders, Bulldogs and Raiders, it’s difficult to see them being better than three from six – and a start like that will almost certainly spell disaster.

Simply put, with all those issues in the squad, the Broncos will do well to make the eight and it’s going to take a masterstroke from Wayne Bennett to be any more than on the border of finals footy.

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You heard it here first, though. The Brisbane Broncos will not play in September this season.

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