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April 16th, 2006. The North Queensland Cowboys had continued one of the most impressive starts to a season in the game’s history by beating the previously undefeated Newcastle Knights 18-16 in a top of the table clash, at Newcastle no less.
Punters fell all over themselves to put their money down on what seemed like a sure thing, and that was a North Queensland premiership.
Having lost the grand final to the Wests Tigers the previous season, the Cowboys had seemingly returned a much stronger football team, and would go on to avenge their loss. Or so it seemed.
The following week, the Cowboys’ luck ran out against the Sharks, and they never recovered. They didn’t finish as Minor Premiers. They didn’t even make the top eight at all.
When the Sydney Roosters were placed as equal Premiership favourites for 2017 following their 20-6 victory over the Rabbitohs in the opening game of Round 4, for me it was more of a danger sign than it was confirmation that 2017 would be there year.
Sure, opening with four consecutive victories is a lot better than the four defeats they suffered in the opening rounds last season, but a look through the history book suggests that a loss early on can prove crucial in a side’s development, provided they learn from it.
The aforementioned example of the Cowboys in 2006 is an illustration of what happens when a team’s seemingly never-ending run is interrupted and it negatively impacts a side’s momentum, but it also works the other way. Sometimes teams must learn how to lose first, and it is often the lessons taken from such losses that serve them the most later on.
When fans think of a Bulldogs versus Roosters game from 2004, it is inevitable that the first game one thinks of is the 2004 grand final in which Canterbury-Bankstown prevailed 16-13, and rightfully so.
However, there was another game between the two arch-rivals much earlier in the season which ultimately proved to be a decisive factor in the Bulldog’s Premiership victory.
Going into the season, the ‘Dogs were backed heavily to win the Premiership, and their odds were only shortened following two early victories over the Eels and Sharks.
Despite a less than convincing display in the latter fixture, the underwhelming performance was largely overlooked as the team’s confidence, and that of their fans, seemed to be at an all time high.
Their next game was an important one on the calendar; a titanic battle with fellow competition heavyweights the Roosters in Round 3.
Everyone predicted that it would be a close affair, and whoever won would go a long way to cementing their positions as Premiership favourites. It was sure to be a classic match destined to be remembered as among the best of the season. It wasn’t.
Instead, the Rooster’s were easy victors, to the tune of 35-0. Perhaps the Bulldogs weren’t as great as they seemed. Suddenly, their weaknesses in the previous two games were amplified, and their confidence no doubt took a hit.
Everyone began to question whether they could be competitive come September after having been so convincingly defeated by the best team in the competition. So what did the Bulldogs do? They worked even harder. Now they had been confronted with the knowledge that they weren’t at the level required to compete – at least consistently – with the upper echelon, and they needed a lot of improvement before they got there.
Would the Bulldogs still have won the 2004 Premiership without losing to the Roosters in Round 3? We can’t know. Yet I have no doubt that it did ultimately help to create a much hardened football team who capitalised on their own mistakes, and never got too comfortable.
In a competition as intense and ruthless as the NRL, it is complacency that can often be a side’s downfall.
Granted, the Roosters have managed to remain undefeated at a time when competition points are more valuable and harder to come by than ever before. However impressive this may be, the Roosters have not produced the kind of football necessary to win the Premiership.
Although they have notched victories over some tough opposition, in particular against the Panthers last Saturday night, none of them were especially convincing. Their win over South Sydney was not as dominant as expected against a lethargic side, and they came up with poor decisions and mistakes at various stages in the game for which they would be punished by better sides.
Despite this, they were almost unanimously praised after the game in a way which indicated their performance had been more dominant than it really was.
The other undefeated team in the competition, the Melbourne Storm, are far and away the better football team, and I’d dare say that a clash between the two clubs would result in a walkover for the Victorian side.
This is not to say the Roosters aren’t still contenders, because they very much are. But it is important for them not to look too far in the horizon – namely at the first Sunday of October.
Perhaps a loss in the next couple of weeks may be of greater benefit to the Roosters in the long term for it is crucial that they don’t allow their weakness to become overshadowed to the point of being overlooked.
Earning the title of Premiership favourites becomes far more difficult as the season progresses. Just ask the Cowboys of 2006.
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