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In recent years, matches between Essendon and Melbourne have thrown up unexpected results, becoming a huge nightmare for many tipsters and AFL experts when they make their predictions.
This theme of unpredictability continued again when the Bombers, who went into Sunday’s early match at Etihad Stadium as favourites despite coming off a five-day break, went down to the Dees by 38 points at Etihad Stadium.
It marked the seventh time in the past eight meetings between the two clubs, dating back to round 15, 2010, in which the underdog has prevailed.
On that occasion, the Dees broke a three-match losing streak against the Bombers with a 19-point win, in what remains their most recent home game against them to date.
The Bombers, at the time coached by Matthew Knights, were expected to make a statement after being thrashed by the Adelaide Crows by 84 points at AAMI Stadium the previous week.
The Dees, on the other hand, hadn’t beaten the Bombers since mid-2006 and were coming off two consecutive wooden spoon seasons under the late Dean Bailey, who was in his third year as coach of the troubled club.
Accordingly, the Bombers started as favourites, but the young Dees rose to the challenge with a six-goal opening quarter setting the tone for the match.
When the teams next met, in Round 11, 2011, the Dees used the Friday night stage to make a statement after being accused of playing ‘bruise-free footy’ against Carlton the previous week.
Stung by this claim, which was made by several Blues players, the Dees hit back hard with a 33-point win, with Bailey, who was to be sacked from his post eight weeks later, coming out onto the middle of the MCG to congratulate his players after the final siren.
Jordie McKenzie was best-on-ground, scoring the three Brownlow Medal votes, while Jordan Gysberts earned himself a second NAB Rising Star nomination along with his two Brownlow votes.
But the mother of the recent upsets would come twelve months later, when the Dees caused a massive boilover by defeating the heavily favoured Bombers by six points at the MCG.
The win was highlighted by a three-vote Brownlow performance from the much-maligned Jack Watts, as the Dees displayed the hard brand of football that Mark Neeld, who by that point had taken over after Bailey’s aforementioned dismissal the previous July, had wanted them to play.
To understand the magnitude of this result, the Dees were last on the ladder without a win after nine rounds, while the Bombers were second on the ladder with an 8-1 record (with the only loss coming by a solitary point against Collingwood on Anzac Day).
Thus, statistically it ranked as the biggest upset in AFL history.
Two years later, the Dees repeated the dose, winning by one point against an Essendon side which had many of its players handed show-cause notices by ASADA in relation to the supplements scandal.
The Bombers, who were coached by caretaker Mark Thompson after James Hird was suspended for twelve months for his role in the controversy, appeared set for a morale-boosting win when it led by 33 points midway through the third quarter.
However, the Dees, who yet again had a new coach in Paul Roos after Neeld’s was sacked twelve months earlier, kicked nine of the last twelve goals, the last kicked by Christian Salem, to notch their fourth (and last) win of the 2014 season.
The previous meeting before that saw Essendon claim a record 148-point win at the MCG early in the 2013 season, a result which would eventually culminate in Neeld’s dismissal as Melbourne coach later that season.
When the sides met thirteen months later, it was Melbourne that went into a match against Essendon as favourites for the first time since 2006.
They were continuing their upward trend under Roos while the Bombers were not only coming off an embarrassing 110-point defeat to St Kilda six days beforehand, but had also lost then-captain Jobe Watson for the season after he had suffered a shoulder injury against the Saints.
Despite being heavily favoured, poor kicking and several missed chances cost the Dees in a nine-point defeat (7.18 (60) to the Bombers’ 10.9 (69)).
The theme of unexpected results continued in round two last year when the Bombers, who had half their best side suspended for the entire season after they were found guilty of taking the banned substance thymosin beta-4 during the 2012 season, upset the heavily favoured Dees at the MCG.
Prior to the match, a march from the city to the MCG took place, with up to 10,000 Bombers supporters and members taking part in support of the 34 past and present players who had been suspended for their roles in the club’s 2012 supplements program earlier that year.
On the field, the heavily depleted Bombers led at every change and after briefly losing the lead in the final quarter, reclaimed it and went on to win by 13 points, extinguishing fears of a winless season.
The win was highlighted by a best-on-ground performance from Zach Merrett and that of second-gamer Darcy Parish, who scored the round’s NAB Rising Star nomination.
Then-Melbourne coach Paul Roos accused his side of taking the Bombers lightly, while Bernie Vince put the result down to “a bad day at the office”.
The result served the rest of the AFL a lesson: underestimate the Bombers at your absolute peril. The Gold Coast Suns and Carlton later became the other two sides to be beaten by the Bombers in 2016.
And now, fast forward to yesterday, which saw Essendon enter as favourites on the back of its first win over Collingwood on Anzac Day since 2013, as well as the injury woes faced by Melbourne.
After seven straight meetings at the MCG, the match at Etihad Stadium gave the Bombers the edge as they had won three of the previous four matches against the Dees at the Docklands venue, the most recent in 2009.
Simon Goodwin’s men also had a horrid recent record at the venue, having won only two matches (against the GWS Giants in round 23, 2015, and against St Kilda in round one this season) at the ground since 2007.
On the basis of all that you’d think that the Bombers would score their fourth win of the season as they set about continuing their ‘comeback story’ after the decimated class of 2016 claimed its first wooden spoon since 1933.
After an even first half, the match was still anyone’s to win, but an eight-goal third quarter would set up the Dees’ third win of the season, squaring their season ledger at 3-all after three straight losses.
The Dees’ win was highlighted by four goals each from Christian Petracca and Jack Watts, who both stood up in the forward line in Jesse Hogan’s absence, while Jordan Lewis was solid on his return from a three-match suspension, his absence having been felt during the Dees’ losing streak.
As for the Bombers, it was a disappointing follow-up to their impressive Anzac Day win over Collingwood as the five-day break took its toll on a side still learning to establish the chemistry between the banned players and the young players coach John Worsfold had to blood last year.
Anzac Day hero Joe Daniher went from hero to zero in the space of five days, with his return of 1.6 (12) a far cry from his three-goal haul against the Magpies last Tuesday.
Having started the year promisingly, Essendon’s season could take a turn for the worse in the coming weeks with a clash against the Geelong Cats to come on the other side of next week’s trip to Perth to face Fremantle.
They must also face the West Coast Eagles, Richmond, the GWS Giants (in Sydney) and Port Adelaide before the club’s round 13 bye.
Melbourne, on the other hand, has the opportunity to improve its season record further when they face Hawthorn at the MCG next week before a tough assignment against the Adelaide Crows at the Oval follows.
The latest result between Essendon and Melbourne now means that the underdog has prevailed on seven of the last eight occasions, with the Bombers’ 148-point win in 2013 the only expected result.
It was also the Dees’ fifth win in their last eight encounters against the Bombers dating back to round 15, 2010.
Who knows what will happen when the two clubs next meet, wherever and whenever that may be?
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