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Another chapter in a rivalry-that-isn’t-quite will be written this evening, as the Adelaide Crows travel to face the suddenly-competent Geelong Cats.
The Crows have historically struggled on the Cats’ home deck, but they’ve never been as good as they are right now.
On that fact alone this match looms as one of the best of the season to date. The Adelaide Crows are far and away the most potent team in the competition, scoring an incredible 124.1 points per game (with an Offensive Efficiency Rating of +34.4 – historically outstanding).
The next best is their fellow Adelaide Oval tenants Port Adelaide, who’re scoring a comparably middling 109.1 points per game (+18.1 on OER, still very good, but the Crows are miles ahead).
Adelaide’s inside 50 differential is +11.1 per game, again clearly the best in the competition and a historically great mark. Their time in possession is +6.5 minutes per game, number one in the league.
Their scoring per minute of possession is obscene: 2.24 points, almost 25 per cent above the league average (1.81 points).
They play aggressive, win-or-go-home football, pushing the pace to its limits. When it works the Crows blow people out of the water (we found on Wednesday, they’ve blown out half of their opponents this season).
Their forward line is chock full of finishers, their midfield – remember when we thought the Crows would struggle through the middle? That was a fun few weeks – ball winners, their defence excellent one on one defenders and users of the pill.
Their 2017 season is the culmination of a revamp which began at the start of 2015 under Phil Walsh, and which has continued at pace with Don Pyke.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
However, since the start of 2015, Adelaide has gone 0-3 with a percentage of 70 against Geelong. The last time the Crows won at Kardinia Park was Round 10, 2003. No currently listed Adelaide Crows player has played in a winning Adelaide team in Geelong – Scott Thompson was in the league, but was at Melbourne.
Geelong has been a problem for Adelaide. But by the same token, there’s a strong argument that the Crows are better than they have been at any point in their recent history. Add to this mix that the winner will reinforce their position at the top of the ladder – the Crows going two games ahead of third place, the Cats joining the Crows and Giants on 32 premiership points – and the recipe for a tasty game of Friday night football is almost complete.
Wait, what’s that you say? It’s the third Dangerfield versus Adelaide match up, with Rory Sloane, the man left to helm the ship following number 35’s departure, an early season favourite for this year’s Brownlow medal? We’re at DEFCON 1 folks. This game looms as one of the biggest of the year.
Geelong have steadied their ship in recent weeks, after losing to Collingwood, Gold Coast and Essendon in successive outings. Since the football world piled on – I was part of the stack – the Cats appear to have regained their tenacity and won’t for the man. Their victories against the Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide were hard fought, in stark contrast to the manner in which they’d rolled over in the face of relentless forward ball movement by their opponents.
That’s part of what makes this game so delicious from the outside looking in. Prior to wins against the Dogs and Power, Geelong were obliterated on the outside, losing the uncontested possession count by 46 a week and their opponents scoring 2.06 points per minute of possession. The Pies, Suns and Dons are the only teams to put up more than two points per minute of possession against the Cats this year. They are all teams who like to play on the outside.
Adelaide are a more balanced outfit, capable of winning games with a dominant midfield performance or through their incisive and efficient transition football. Geelong’s last two victories have been built on dragging opponents into the slop, with numbers at the ball and a suffocating press once the ball travels into their forward 50 arc.
For me, that makes the turnovers critical. Both teams will fancy their chance of winning stoppages – if Geelong get their way there will be a lot of them. Should Adelaide get enough open or half open looks at their forward third of the ground, they will back their forward line to get on top of the Cats’ back six with relative ease.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Speaking of which, Geelong have made two changes, bringing back Tom Lonergan (making it a three versus three tall match up in Adelaide’s attacking 50) and Nakia Cockatoo, with Jed Bews out of the team with an ankle injury and youngster Jordan Cunico left out. The Crows are unchanged.
Kardinia Park is a long and narrow ground. The Crows prefer to work with some latitude. Indeed, this could be a reason why they’ve struggled in their past few outings at Geelong; it could also be a significant driver behind the Cats’ better play in recent weeks.
Geelong limited Adelaide to 73 and 69 uncontested marks in their games at Kardinia Park in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Chipping around hasn’t really been a priority for the Crows in 2017 though – they’ve taken just 73.2 uncontested marks per game, ranked 15th in the competition. Their count barely varies in wins and losses, either. Geelong will want to win this one in the clinches.
It’s tempting to look at raw form and not the specifics of the contest at hand in this one. Adelaide are the better team, and will finish higher on the ladder come Round 23 this season. Their forward line is more diverse, midfield bats a bit deeper, and defence more in tune with 2017 football’s demand for pace and agility.
But the Cats play their home ground really well, and I’m not convinced the Crows will be able to play the games on their terms for long enough to put up three figures on the scoreboard.
It’s a tough pick, but I am backing Geelong tonight to prevail in a close game. It feels like the kind of game that will swing one way and the other; the Crows could kick five goals in half a quarter, only for the Cats to reel it in over a longer stretch of attritional play. Whatever the process, the outcome will be meaningful in the context of a very tight season.
That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?