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As we move towards the first Test at the Garden of Eden, global rugby is abuzz with the pending clash of styles between the rush/press defence of Warrenball versus the wide running and unstructured play of Hansen’s All Blacks.
There is the possibility of BIL strangling the free-flowing ABs out of the game.
It’s a really nice narrative, but is highly unlikely to be the way the game will pan out – especially for the first hour.
Will New Zealand allow Beauden Barrett to become a potential target for the BIL rush defence without a forward platform?. Equally unlikely, I would think.
Since prior to Rugby World Cup in 2011, the ABs, and even more so under Hansen, set out to win the battle of the gain line, and it is difficult to recall a match during his era when the Darkness have not dominated this aspect of the game.
The tackling output of the All Blacks’ two locks is best in class. They have a set of gain-line tacklers who know their job is to win the opening battle before the backs get a turn.
But the big question is how will New Zealand handle the excellent BIL press/rush defence? It’s certainly not the first time they have had to face it. Most recently South Africa in the Rugby World Cup semi and the Irish in Dublin, both times they met fire with fire at the gain-line, showed excellent patience and stayed in the arm wrestle and took their chances when they came up.
They scored five tries to nil across the two matches. As in both these games, the fighting lines on Saturday will be in channels one and two.
So the set piece is going to be critical as to who gets the gain line upper hand.
This tour BIL have looked excellent on their own ball, but to date they have not really faced a side with multiple options against them.
Scrum time – bring it on this is going to be a beauty. Said it before and will repeat, am far from convinced that Mako Vunipola is top drawer international standard at scrum time, and while Franks is not what one would call a destructive tighthead, he does produce a very stable platform with a high pressure push.
This is going to be a key battle. Maybe the BIL will surprise on the upside here, but they didn’t dominate against the Highlanders or Blues, and when Mr Reynal did allow the scrums to pack in Christchurch, I counted only one where the BIL got a decent shove on.
And also of interest, in the Blues, Highlanders, Crusaders games the BIL conceded more turnovers than their opposition, a contest up front it seems causes the BIL a few handling issues too.
So the first hour will be the battle of the big boys, head to head, bash each other to bits and see how it turns out.
So what do we expect the last 20 to look like as the game opens up? The first question is can the BIL go 80 when they have a scrap up front on their hands first, it certainly hasn’t been an issue for them versus the Maori and the Chiefs where they dominated in the Eight. In the game where they were challenged in the pack it wasn’t quite so flash. They didn’t score in the second half versus the Crusaders, had two penalties second half versus the Blues, and couldn’t get a point in the last 25 against the Highlanders when it really mattered.
Rather than putting his faith in the ability of his side to contain and wear down the All Blacks over 80, Gatland has introduced Williams and Daly hoping that the same type of counter attack that worked against a 14-man Chiefs on Tuesday will turn up trumps again in the first Test.
I just wonder whether in the stare down battle of tactics, Gatland just blinked.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.